Wednesday, June 30, 2010

S&P/Case-Shiller (April) and DataQuick (May)


Yesterday's April 2010 S&P/Case-Shiller was overall pretty flat trend for both Los Angeles and the 10-city Composite.

Overall Los Angeles (including Orange County) was up 0.68% from March, after being down 0.70% from February and 0.67% from January, (compared with up 0.92% from December, 0.99% from November, 0.77% from October, 0.30% from September, 0.85% from August, and 1.6% from July), now down 37.3% from its September 2006 peak, at November 2003 levels. The national (orange line, their original 10-city Composite) index is down 30.5% from its peak in June 2006.

The Low, Middle, and High tiers are again available and graphed; the high tier was almost exactly flat for the month (up a whole 0.01%). The left column on the chart is peak to bottom; the right is peak to current month.

The DataQuick numbers for May show three of the four counties up for the month, but more from sales of higher-priced houses than price increases:
The median price paid topped $300,000 for the first time in 20 months, largely because the ultra bargains have been drying up in the low-cost inland areas while sales have increased in the pricier coastal neighborhoods....
Los Angeles County's median was at $345K, down 37.3% from its peak in August 2007. For what it's worth (given the changing mix), that left Los Angeles County at December 2003, Orange County prices at January 2004, Ventura County at May 2003, and San Diego County at August 2002.

Finally, here is the updated Los Angeles Case-Shiller index scaled with the Los Angeles DataQuick median price history (normalized Case-Shiller's January 2000 = 100). The Case-Shiller data is a month older and a three-month average.

In general prices continue pretty flat since mid-2009, and likely to fall again as tax credits end, interest rates rise, and more foreclosures make it to market.

Wednesday, June 23, 2010

Price declines ahead ...

No, I haven't disappeared, just lots else going on that makes it hard to focus on posting here. Next week I'll post updates DataQuick and S&P/Case-Shiller updates and my Santa Monica and Westside data through June. Local inventory continues to be the second-highest I've recorded, below last year's crisis levels but above 2008.

In the meantime these two items yesterday from The Big Picture and Calculated Risk (daily must-reads for me) reinforce my expectation that we're going to see another step down in the larger economy and local real estate prices during the second half of this year.

Existing Home Sales Slide 2.2%
We see more evidence that next leg down in Housing has begun, ...

We haven’t looked at the usual idiotic blatherings from the National Association of Realtors in quite some time. For shits and giggles, let’s have a gander at their latest, to see if they are still maintaining their traditional high standards of alcohol consumption.

Ahhh, the Realtor crowd rarely disappoints. The Headline — “May Shows a Continued Strong Pace for Existing-Home Sales” — reveals their inability to separate facts from wishful thinking. ...

Let’s ignore their usual foolishness, and go straight for the data: ...
How high will Existing Home Months-of-Supply increase this summer?
Earlier I posted a graph showing the relationship of existing home months-of-supply to house prices. When months-of-supply is below 6 months, house prices are typically rising - and above 6 months-of-supply, house prices are usually falling (this isn't perfect, but it is a general guide). ...

The peak for months-of-supply was 11.2 months in 2008. And house prices? The Case-Shiller composite 20 index fell 17.2% in 2008.

We are much closer to the price bottom now than in 2008, and I don't expect that severe of a price decline. But I do expect house prices to fall in the 2nd half of 2010 and into 2011 - probably another 5% to 10% for the major house price indexes (Case-Shiller and CoreLogic). ...