Friday, January 1, 2010

New, Sold, and Withdrawn/Expired listings

Sales and new listings have been stronger the latter part of 2009 than the preceeding year or two for lower-priced listings in Santa Monica, Pacific Palisades, and Palms-Mar Vista. But note how high-end Santa Monica collapsed - nothing over $3M sold or was listed in December, and the last few months were nearly as weak.









42 comments:

Anonymous said...

What does it mean that inventory of houses greater than $3 million is so low in Santa Monica? How do we interpret the fact that so few people are trying to sell ?

Anonymous said...

Folks are waiting out the weakness in the market. When you hae more than one home you can be really flexible.

Anonymous said...

I have been reading this blog since the very beginning.

Everyone has been predicting the nice homes North of Montana coming down in price.

But look at the past two months - 4 (four) houses North of Montana close escrow at more than 3 million.

I trust all of you - I believe all of you - but still today, cash is changing hands at 3 million plus.

Westside Bubble said...

How do we interpret the fact that so few people are trying to sell?

Very few new listings - probably because new spec construction is over - and a high level of withdrawn/expired listings compared with the last few years.

But look at the past two months - 4 (four) houses North of Montana close escrow at more than 3 million.

The two (my tracking omits Santa Monica Canyon) in Nov.-Dec. 2009 are way below 2008's five and 2007's nine for the same period. Not entirely dead, but way down.

Westside Bubble said...

Picking up on what I presume was Anon 8:14's comment to the 12/8/09 post,

533 18th St
$3,115K, 12/15/09, 4+5
5194 sqft, YB 1989, 8940 sqft lot

215 21st Pl
$3,200K, 12/11/09, 4+4
4598 sqft, YB 1998, 7600 sqft lot


Peculiar is that the first of these was never listed on the MLS and the second's 12/12/08 MLS listing expired back in June.

Anonymous said...

Westside Bubble - I agree with you that we should not look at the canyon. We should only look at the area between San Vicente and Montana.

But even limiting it to that small area I see FOUR sales over 4 million recently, not TWO.
Sorry if I am making a mistake here but I count four. All four in Franklin

533 18th St
$3,115K, 12/15/09, 4+5
5194 sqft, YB 1989, 8940 sqft lot
$600/sqft

215 21st Pl
$3,200K, 12/11/09, 4+4
4598 sqft, YB 1998, 7600 sqft lot
$696/sqft

428 21st Pl
$3,250K, 11/11/09, 5+4.5
4878 sqft, YB 1998, 9000 sqft lot
$666/sqft

634 21st Pl
$3,450K, 11/10/09, 4+5
4800 sqft, YB 2001, 8940 sqft lot
$719/sqft

Anonymous said...

Is what is going on right now in the 90402 identical to what is going on in Manhattan? Google this to see the latest news on Manhattan


__
Sales Rise Spurs Optimism In Manhattan Real Estate
By ELIZABETH A. HARRIS
Published: January 4, 2010
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LinkedinDiggFacebookMixxMySpaceYahoo! BuzzPermalink The 2009 Manhattan real estate market ended on a better note than it began, according to fourth-quarter reports that were to be released Tuesday by the city’s largest brokerages.

The improvements in the market that began over the summer pushed through to the end of the year. Most reports found that sales increased from the third quarter to the fourth, which helped eat away at the inventory of unsold apartments. Prices, meanwhile, stayed about flat

Anonymous said...

Anon at 12:40

I have one question for you: what would those houses have sold for in 2007?

Anonymous said...

I agree with 1223....you are annoying.

Anonymous said...

Westside Bubble said there were two. Some anon posted four.

Which is it. What is the truth. How many houses over 3 million closed in Nov and Dec.


Also here is another mystery. My neighbor on 21st street tells me further down 21st street there is a brand new modern spec house for sale. Asking more than 4 million. This house is listed in the window of the real estate office on Montana but it is not listed in the MLS. What is the reason that a house like this is kept out of the MLS?

By the way the house is very interesting looking and I encourage people to walk by and peek in.

But what is the deal with lack of MLS>

Anonymous said...

I would like to humbly point out that the smartest people watching enron in the late 1990s pointed out publicly that it was a fraud and would go to zero.

But it took longer to go to zero than anyone thought - I mean the people that predicted disaster looked like idiots when the stock stayed up in 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000 and 2001

But ultimately the people that listened to them did well and the people that bought in to enron lost all their money.

Is the 90402 enron? No. But just cause the 90402 hasn't crashed yet doesn't prove it won't happen soon

Anonymous said...

Is what is going on right now in the 90402 identical to what is going on in Manhattan?

I tend to think so. The most desirable areas of town have people lining up to live there. When prices drop a small amount a new group of people decides they can finally afford the prized 90402. Those people flood in and prices go back up slightly. This can go on as long as there is no shortage of people wanting to live in 90402. Eager & able buyers create a lot of demand in desirable areas while prices remain flat overall. This is the bouncing off the bottom that happens for a while before things return to normal. By normal I mean a few percent a year, not 20% appreciation. Remember its the nicer areas that recover first in a recession and the rest follow.

The only thing that can hurt highly desirable locations is a flood of inventory. Those shadow inventory people will be surprised to know banks aren't looking to dump everything they have on their balance sheets. Banks know they stand to make the most by trickling their inventory onto the market in these zip codes. Flooding the market hurts their ability to recover money in the few locations that are performing well. The only downside is if the bank holds too long they will have to sell at a profit when the market rebounds. That's why there is larger shadow inventory in desirable zip codes but places like Stockton or Riverside have just been flooded by the banks. No need hold property in those areas as the upside is too small.

Like Manhattan people are seeing the value in the current prices. They are more comfortable in their jobs than last year when everyone was afraid of a layoff. The people see manufacturing has gone up, companies are giving out bonuses again and stocks are on the rise. Its not meteoric like the mid 2000's but its a consistent rise. These are signs of a slow recovery and people realize they can't wait too long or miss their chance for the desirable areas.

If you want to live in Glendale you can buy anytime. But if you want to live in a desirable area the window of opportunity isn't as big.

No, I'm not a real estate agent. And I think we'll bounce across the bottom in Santa Monica for another year. By the end of 2010, barring an outside confidence deflater like terrorism, we'll see the solid signs of a recovery out of the higher end parts of the country. And it'll be many months to a year before it trickles into other areas. And several years before that recovery makes its way to hard hit areas like Nevada and Arizona. End of 2010 expect 90402 to be going up across the board but not by much. On its way back to normal appreciation.

Anonymous said...

I agree....you don't see Class A type residences getting into the low 1 million mark....shite is marked down and sold for under market value...but real houses that real 90402 buyers want are still priced higher than what a lot of people on this blog would like to see....

Anonymous said...

We can argue all day about whether the prices in the 90402 will be up or down over the next 24 months

But let's discuss the relative price outlook for each of the neighborhoods - GRS vs the rest of 90402

Anonymous said...

"But let's discuss the relative price outlook for each of the neighborhoods - GRS vs the rest of 90402"

Who cares about GRS vs the rest of 90402? Other than the lot sizes (which is factored into prices), what is the big obsession? Discussing GRS as a special entity is worthless, on par with the zip poster who keeps asking about the 'updated' per square foot build costs.

Anonymous said...

New thread please

Anonymous said...

One of the teacher's at my son's school just showed me a web site that lets you see the movie renting taste of the people in each of the different zip codes of Santa Monica. Take a look at you will see how different people are in each of the zips

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2010/01/10/nyregion/20100110-netflix-map.html

Anonymous said...

"One of the teacher's..."

Let me guess, you live in the "smart" zip code.

Anonymous said...

Actually, that Netflix map is pretty cool, especially with the film Milk being newly released. I think I'll avoid buying in the zips where it's ranked in the top 3.

Anonymous said...

Anon 12:31-

That made my day!

Anonymous said...

There are some cool differences between the different zip codes. Stuff people like to rent is different in each code. Choose wisely. Buy in a zip code where people are similar to you and like the same movies

Anonymous said...

Look up Tyler Perry in each metro vs Milk....a perfect inverse relationship.

The NetFlix data would really sing if the map had layers showing average HH income, education, and avg home values. Some readers will sputter about class implications, but media choices and demo's tell one heck of a story.

Anonymous said...

You don't really need HH income information - you just need to look at the movies.

High income whites rent "Vicky Christina Barcelona" White income whites do not


Low income whites rent "Paul Blart Mall Cop" and High income whites do not.

Some movies play exclusively to a high income audience and some play exclusively to a low income audience

Anonymous said...

Use this chart to see if you fit in better with the people in GRS or fit in better with the people in Palmdale and Lancaster

Anonymous said...

Yes, those are the only two options, GRS or Palmdale.

Anonymous said...

You forgot Lancaster.

Remember, there is a place for everyone

Anonymous said...

Gee, the map I'm looking at doesn't include Santa Monica at all. Not only is Santa Monica real estate NOT comparable to Manhattan but the New York Times doesn't even regard it as an important part of the Los Angeles area. The New Yorkers are smart!

Anonymous said...

It's a Google map. All you do is drag the map to display Santa Monica...

Anonymous said...

I wish all the New Yorkers would stay the heck away from the 90402 and leave it to people that grew up there.

So I agree with you that it would be good if New Yorkers didn't know about Santa Monica

Anonymous said...

Arti said...
We're lucky we have SM distress, I wish we had someone dedicated like that blogging for Mar Vista or Pacific Palisades.

Speaking of improvements, I always wondered why Redfin, Zillow etc. don't let people post comments on listings? You have to log on to those sites, they're searchable and have tons of useful information and comparisons--why not let us comment too?

And by the by, anyone noticed that 907 22ND St in 90403 just played the re-list game? Completely bloated price, they want near $1.5 Million for a 1 bathroom 2 bedroom, crappy old house. The one thing going for it is location and decent lot, but it's not much better than a teardown. They de-listed and re-listed at the same price! Now it shows as being on there for 1 day, when in fact this bloated over-priced place has been on the market since May of last year.

The sellers are dumb and greedy, they only paid $720k for this place in 2000, so they have plenty of room to cut to market if they really wanted to sell. They must either be greedier than smart, or else they took all the equity out and don't actually have any room to cut to a realistic post-Bubble level.

January 14, 2010 4:47 PM
____________

Arti
thanks for your post - I agree that 907 is overpriced, but I am not sure how much they will have to cut in order to move it.

The busy streets are 20th, 23rd, and 26th so this house is on one of the not so busy streets in the 90403.

teardowns North of Montana on 22nd are selling for about 1.7 million right now, and the gap between North of Montana and South of Montana has gotten narrower, so I would guess that they could get 1.3 for this house over the next month or so. If they hold the line at 1.5 I would bet that they won't get a buyer.

Arti, if you bought this house and tore it down, what would you build? how many square feet do you want?

Anonymous said...

Arti - sorry I should have said that I am responding to you here because I am anon and this blog allows anons

Anonymous said...

I would do 4K sq ft.

Anonymous said...

FYI, I am set on building a 3,000 sf house (roughly $1M cost / $333 sf, carefully managed), looking for a lot. No way would I pay $1.5M south of Montana in this market... looking for $1.3ish on a 7,500 or $1.5ish on a 9,000 lot.

Why 3,000? Fits my needs, focus on quality, remaining yard space for a killer backyard set-up, and good setbacks and light. I am looking to nestle a new Medit (1920's style) in between 2 old Medits. Building between monster specs sounds awful and is a no-go for the lot.

Anonymous said...

Teardowns in Sunset park are now only 750 thousand dollars. Big price discount vs GRS

note that 1733 Sunset just closed escrow for 900k and it was much better than a tear down

Anonymous said...

what is the best location in the 90403? Do you think the average person would rather be in a three bedroom on third street in the 90403 close to the water but also close to all the homeless or in a three bedroom on 16th a half block south of montana - farther from the water but in a much more upscale hood?

Anonymous said...

I love this blog - thank you for putting it together

That being said, Manhattan Beach Confidential has a much more active and engaged set of participants. I wish we had a group here with as much energy as the folks in MB

Let me just throw out a suggestion - since there are so few houses in SM 90402 on the market, how about each time one of us sees one at an open house or otherwise we post our impressions of the positives and negatives. Let's have a detailed discussion of each of the houses.

By the way, I predict houses will come down in price, I am in no way saying it is smart to buy now. Am just looking for a discussion

Anonymous said...

We just bought in 90403 recently and are going through the hell of getting permits to remodel/addon. The nightmare that this process has been so far is unmentionable. We haven;t even started!

I was one of those who waited for the market to come down before buying and figured I'd get a better bargain by getting a fixer and perhaps save a few hundred thousand dollars. Well we got a great price on a street we wanted and now I regret not paying more and getting a ready to move into place!

For those of you brilliant people out there who think timing the market is easy, keep in mind that there is a reason why SM costs so much - the city has a very vested interest in keeping it that way!

Anonymous said...

sounds like you picked the wrong contractor.

Anonymous said...

Agreed with the poster above - something is wrong with the contractor or approach if you can't punch a remodel through. SM city hall is a known quantity; you either work the system or it will work you. As a serial homeowner in SM, I have put through 3 major remodels in 6 years. During permit and review delays I at least worked the landscaping, service lines, etc versus doing nothing. I also learned to bail out contractors who po'd the city on my job by using the in-person homeowner appeal. The city can be a pain in the ass, but I don't buy the complete roadblock claim.

Anonymous said...

My contractor has been very good - getting permit signatures on all the aspects of this project has been very time consuming - the city has just been delaying for one reason or another - the holidays slowed things down at least a month. For someone who has the time to run around after the city and make their own calls, I'm sure its easier. But for me who works long hours, I don't have the time. Coordinating with gas, electric, has added another 2 weeks or so to this. Most people i've talked to say it takes at least 4-6 months for the permit process if you're lucky. Looks like they were right!

Anonymous said...

Staying on top of the job is the only way to get it done in a short time frame. I work insane hours, but resigned during the remodel to spend an hour or two each day going over each day's checklist with the contractor, maintaining quality control, and chasing down loose ends. The alternative is to spend an extra $50k for a project manager. Putting the project on general contractor auto-pilot is for the deep pocketed and patient. When something goes sideways on auto-pilot you have a real mess on your hands.

Anonymous said...

I am not a realtor - I am a bear and I hope very much that prices come down. I want to live in a SFR within easy walking distance of the Ocean.

That being said, I can't help but notice some prices on new homes that appear to be below replacement cost.

Has anyone else gone to see 1039 Centinela Ave? This is a brand new 4700 sq foot single family house, asking 2.4 million.

The block is actually very nice, and I would guess a vacant lot on this block would fetch 1.1 million.
With very, very tight control I believe a builder can put up a 4700 sq foot house for 1.5 million all in -
that would imply 1.5 plus 1.1 or 2.6 replacement value

Has anyone else seen the house? Any other SM neighborhoods where things are clearly selling below replacement cost?

Again, I am a bear and hope prices fall, but this house jumped out at me