Here's a new low in prices north of Montana. Yes, it is next to the parking lot behind the corner businesses at 11th and Montana, and the interior photos are definitely "before," but this 3 bed / 1 bath 1,559 SF house at 723 11th St. is only asking $1,300K! So far no takers in the 5 days since it was listed 12/3/09.
"Least expensive R-1 zoned 7,500 sq. ft. lot plus 3 bedroom house, North of Montana. Yes, it is adjacent to a public parking lot, but there is plenty of light and breeze because of this. There is a large entry hall and dining area that help this home be used for entertaining. Expand and remodel this house or rebuild. Opportunity to be North of Montana."
Tuesday, December 8, 2009
New low north of Montana
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65 comments:
Lust for NOM persists with pending sale of horrifying 734 12th (1/1, 720 sqft home/4,796 smaller than usual lot for the area) with a bizarre Bates Motel style addition in the back. Across from a parking lot on 12th, with a parking lot behind it in back and an NOM business next to it. But in the end, it is about the land, isn't it? Listing price $949,900 and pending after only about 2 weeks.
I agree - buyers are showing lust for NOM and especially desperate and lecherous lust for Franklin NOM.
I want to call your attention to the below post. This below post came out months ago and yet I still see not one single bank owned REO for sale NOM.
What the heck is happening to the huge pipeline of NOM foreclosures we all know are there?
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The banks are starting to aggressively accept low ball bids, even in really nice areas of the West side
I call your attention to 3109 Laurel in Manhattan Beach
Purchased for $1.375m in April 2006. The bank foreclosed and rushed to sell it - the bank just accepted $568k. A lot of us thought the bank would back out, but no the sale went through at $568 thousand.
This bank bit the bullet and accepted an offer that was a 59% discount off the 2006 sale price
The house was not damaged in any way between 2006 and today. It was the same house, only sold at a 59% discount
In general, Manhattan Beach is just as desirable a place to live as Santa Monica. I personally would never live in Manhattan Beach...
Now the realtors who post here will say that the banks will never accept a 59% discount in the promised land (Franklin 90402) but that is the same thing the realtors said in MB.
The truth is that prices are falling hard, even in the promised land. Do NOT let the realtors bully you in to buying today - hold firm and wait for the right price
Apparently the dump at 734 12th Street in SM had 5 offers...mostly cash offers!
If you can believe publicly available records anymore and I'm starting to doubt some, 734 12th was purchased 6/3/04 for $975K and is now owned by a bank. I don't think public listings have to be emblazoned with the scarlet REO/bank- owned moniker. Sometimes, these facts are closely held and not eagerly divulged.
Even when you ask, you may get responses along the lines of "check with city" or "check with bank,:"don't know," "I'm just here open house sitting for the agent."
But I think we'd all be surprised, if we dug deep enough, that there are listings scattered throughout the Westside NOT proclaiming "I'm a REO or foreclosure." It's just that nowadays it takes a lot of digging and there's just not enough time.
I respect very much what you are saying, but if you look between Montana and San Vicente, between 7th and 26th, you are looking at a huge number of homes, but almost none on the market.
Inventory is really really low right now -
perhaps REOs are hitting the market and just selling quickly
Location Lust to this extent baffles me. It's a little like buying a beat-up 1995 Lexus with no engine and proudly declaring you drive a Lexus. Sure it's nice to be NOM, but some tradeoffs just kill the proposition. Being adjacent to a parking lot is a deal-breaker for me.
Can we discuss 721 19th? Just sold. What does 721 19th tell us?
I heard that it will take $400k to get the foundation problems fixed, make it earthquake safe and decent to live in.
Does this take the comps for the hood down or up. What about the snarky comment below from last time we discussed this
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It is all relative, this blog has some people that can easily afford South of Montana but who are desperate and crying for a place North of Montana. Then there are people that can afford the West Side, but nothing at all in Santa Monica. Then there are people who can't even afford anything on the West Side. Everyone is focused on what they can't have.
Hell, even North of Montana some of the people moan and groan about how they can't afford Franklin and are forced to live outside the Franklin neighborhood. I have news for you - everyone has something to envy
We made an offer on 612 17th 2 days after it hit the market. It has potential but is a major fixer (needs more sq footage, plumb. elec. new kitchen and baths, landscaping, etc.) There were 5 offers (in 2 days with no brokers open,) mostly cash offers and it sold for close to asking, all cash. I am guessing around $1,850ish? Can anyone explain this?
give us more details on 612. Other people on this blog are bidding on North of Montana homes and want to know more -
I mean were you planning to tear it down or rennovate? How much money to rennovate
Did the fact that 17th is a busy street bother you ?
The explanation is simple- there is almost no inventory sub $2.5 million and there are 10 or so buyers who need to buy immediately. Therefore every time a house comes on the market, some portion of those 10 buyers go nuts. I guarantee most of the people who bid on 17th also bid on 19th. I bid on 19th but 17th was a disaster, at least the upstairs.
I think you are correct - but there are more than ten in that cohort
For none of these 2.5 million dollar houses does it make sense to buy
typical house that is selling for 2.2 can also be rented for 5k per month
so the rent vs buy is silly but yet people feel the social pressure to own.
sad
Hey
is anyone else here looking to buy at NORTH of 2.5 million 90402?
Can we have some discussion of the nice homes in the 9002 that will close above 2.5?
In particular there is a short sale asking 3.5 in Franklin GRS 9002
Can we discuss that
I'm looking to spend over $10 million in GRS, and unfortunately there is no inventory for me either.
Troll - please go home.
The short sale is 6500 square feet on three levels
Asking 3.5
Too large a house for most of us
I would not have torn down 612 17th. I would have added fam/kitch to the back and remodeled the entire house. I was not bugged by the traffic on 17th because I loved the idea of being so close to Montana and walking to restaurants, Whole Foods, etc. If you tear down, you pay taxes on the sale price and taxes on all of the new sq footage. Crazy!! I am not even interested in Franklin, just know this may be our last chance to get into a neighborhood that will increase in value more than any other in So Cal. and it happens to be a nice place to live. Win, win. But, I will not overpay. Taxes are based on sale price and they are forever!! $20,000+ a year just in taxes, no thank you!!
I heard that taxes go down if value goes down
taxes are 1 % of sale price or assessed value which ever is lower
so if you buy a house for 3 million and market value falls to 2 million your taxes are 20 thou a year not 30
that is what i heard
can anyone confirm this
anyway my understanding is that the deal n of montana right now is pay 1.7 for a tear down, then pay 1.3 to put up a new home so you are all in for 3 mil and the city taxes you 30k
pls confirm
Anon 9:02
you are correct about the taxes, except they are closer to 1.25% of sales price or est. (tax assessor) value
723 11th is already pending after 8 days. Anyone have any ideas about the price? It kills me how eager people are to buy right now, and how much downside there still is left in the market.
Anonymous December 12, 2009 5:16 PM said:
"For none of these 2.5 million dollar houses does it make sense to buy - typical house that is selling for 2.2 can also be rented for 5k per month - so the rent vs buy is silly but yet people feel the social pressure to own. "
I'm not sure where you got your numbers - but with anything over 4% appreciation, it makes good sense to buy vs. rent, even at the 2.5m level. At the 1.5m level, anything over 3% appreciation favors rent vs. buy.
10:32
I am very grateful for your comment
thank you
but when you get a chance pls explain your numbers
" so if you buy a house for 3 million and market value falls to 2 million your taxes are 20 thou a year not 30
that is what i heard"
Yeah, but...
I reveived a nice letter from the assessor this year on a property that I own in SM and bought in 2003 (cheapest property to sell that year), telling me that the county assessor's staff had PRE-approved adjustments on X number of properties, and that my neighborhood was holding value so would not be reassessed.
The gist was don't call us, we'll call you when we think that SM has actually lost some value.
If the neighborhood is Sunset Park, the city is being fair and honest with you.
Sunset park isn't really off the peak that much
If the neighborhood is NOM then they are not at all being fair
Rent vs Buy:
There are many calculators online (I used motley fool) - but be sure to put in realistic numbers at each stage.
I too agree there is a lot of pressure to buy, especially when we saw the real estate market double in the last 10 years.
But I can't help feeling like I'm in the spring of 2000 and the tech bubble is crumbling. My friend bought Microsoft stock when it was 60, then bought more when it was 50, because it was sure to go back up. Then it dropped to 40 and he bought a bunch more, under the same principal. Then it kept dropping and he gave up as it settled at 25, pretty much where it's been for the last 8 years.
The real estate bubble climb is so fresh in all of our minds.
"I think you are correct - but there are more than ten in that cohort"
Maybe a few more, but I don't think it's a lot more. I am certain that if inventory were at even normal levels, prices would be dropping relatively quickly in 90402.
Just visited 409 16th Street this weekend...
First, the description:
Wonderful North of Montana Spanish! Original details & charm intact. Sweet breakfast room off kitchen. Front-facing living room w/ wonderful picture window overlooking tree-lined street. Formal dining room. Hardwood floors. First time on the market for 50+ years. Bedroom wing was added. Oversized, detached garage. Great location on great street. In the coveted Franklin district.
Then the reality:
Absolutely the worst thing I have ever seen. A complete embarrassment. Seriously, I actually hoped no one would see me leaving the open house b/c this house was so bad and overpriced (yes, even given the lot), I didn't want anyone to think that I'd actually be stupid enough to consider it.
Anyone else see this disaster? What a joke.
First of all, let me thank everyone that is contributing to the success of this blog with your calm civil posts.
In the past I logged on here and there was so much hate and anger than I was really turned off. This board used to have bitter buyers - people that had sunk their life savings in to a house at the peak who were in denial about the massive hit they had taken to their net worth.
At the same time we had people with incomes so small that they were never going to be able to afford the West Side that lashed out at anyone that suggested that West Side would not ever fall to Lancaster and Palmdale price levels.
So I think that we have a more sober and honest crowd here now and I appreciate that.
I come at this from a different perspective - I have a family that could never fit in something old and small like 409 16th so when I go to look at it I am thinking - how much money would it cost me to expand this and also thinking how much money would it cost me to tear it down and start all over.
One other thing - in my humble opinion the reason why inventory is so low in the 90402 is because so many people have decided to rent instead of to sell. The number of homes rented out - i mean successfully rented out with a paying tennant in place - is veyr high now. Somehow the rental market for nice homes in the 90402 is still pretty robust - I mean owners are disappointed with the rents they are getting but are still renting
Anyway, I am interested in other people who spend their Sundays going to open houses in the 90402 giving their opinion on each of the houses that is open each Sunday
Dec. 12, 7:59 am --
You are a part of the problem. You don't NEED to buy a house. You need to breathe, you need air, and you need a roof over your head. RENT IT if you do not find what you want right way. If all the people who think they "NEED" to buy something would just slow down, the early birds would get screwed, and the smart birds would eat well and at half the price. CHILL OUT!!
Happy renter - in a nicer place than you will ever buy.
The explanation is simple- there is almost no inventory sub $2.5 million and there are 10 or so buyers who need to buy immediately. Therefore every time a house comes on the market, some portion of those 10 buyers go nuts. I guarantee most of the people who bid on 17th also bid on 19th. I bid on 19th but 17th was a disaster, at least the upstairs.
December 12, 2009 7:59 AM
I thought 409 16th was one of the creepiest houses I have been through and I love fixers. I walked in and right out the back door and never looked back. This is a complete teardown. How dare they price it so high. This house will give us a true indication of the land value on a 7,500 sq ft lot. I am guessing it goes out around $1.4 but hopefully less.
Who ever made the comment about taxes and how the "work" on new construction is wrong. The city doesn't care what you spend they have their own calculators and it is all based on sq footage added (a new house is all new sq footage.) They multiply the new sq footage by around $250 a sq ft (subjective based on the quality of the neighborhood) plus the taxes you are already paying for the property. If you pay $1.6 and build a 5000 sq ft house your taxes will be around $35,000 a year. Scary!! All of the sudden Franklin isn't so cheap. You may as well live in "LA" and pay for private school.
"You are a part of the problem. You don't NEED to buy a house."
Where did I say I need to buy a house? I bid on exactly one house, because I liked it, you idiot.
Enjoy your rental.
While horrifying 734 12th -- that 1/1 on a truncated NOM lot -- is still pending, the original subject of this post -- 723 11th -- appears to have sold for $1,294K after only one week on the market. And it's next to a parking lot just like 734 12th. Lust for NOM continues unabated, and the money supply seems plentiful.
so the low end of the market for 7500 square foot lots is 1.3
I mean you can't get much lower than next to a parking lot
409 16th is pending. This will be very telling. This is a good street, 7500 sq ft lot, should go for lot value.
Mr. Need to Buy:
You actually said there are people (at least 10 of them) who "need" to buy. I even cut and pasted your own quote. Yet you deny saying it. Who is the idiot?
You are part of the problem. You just are in "must buy a house" nutty desperation and can't tell. Yikes.
For some figures now: 2 NOM sales and a looking for backup, if we agree that all 3 are teardowns, purchased only for lustful land value. Saw the first two below and they were definitely demolitionable, and comments above allude to the pending as tragic also.
Sold 06/26/09 for $1,400K: 720 17th, 1/1, 1,287/7,517 sqft, second house from a parking lot and diagonally across from a planned affordable housing/seniors development. Street light at corner with Montana Ave. Land value: $186 per sqft.
Sold 12/11/09 for $1,294K: 723 11th, 3/1, 1,559/7,496 sqft, next to parking lot. Land value: $173 per sqft, a 7 percent drop six months after above sale.
Asking $1,850K and looking for backup 12/15/09: 409 16th, 4/2, 1,684/7,500 sqft, on a quieter, more insulated street. If sold for land value at asking: $246 per sqft. This appears quite high.
Given the insulation premium and recent sales, you'd think 409 16th would go for about $200 per sqft land value max or $1,500K. But then again, lust and cash for NOM seem boundless.
No inventory does strange things to a market.....
agreed. 409 16th will really teach us a lot. can't wait to see what it closes at
Anyone want to throw in a guess as to what the property on 16th closes at
Anyone been in to see 310 22nd
Foreclosure
Franklin 90402
6500 sq feet
Is this the start of a wave of foreclosures? Let's discuss this house
310 22nd is nice-looking, but the new mantra of "It's a short sale" is not nirvana. Have heard horror stories of buyers' offers stuck in bank approval hell waiting for short sale approval. Once that does not happen, the property goes to auction usually on county court steps, and, if not sold there, then it becomes an REO (real-estate owned by the bank) or an actual foreclosure.
It's noteworthy this house has dropped one million dollars in asking. But the listing says it's a "bank-approved" short sale. You wonder has the bank agreed to the current asking of $3,495K or is it that it will "CONSIDER" this offer and then jerk you around for more money for months on end as it tries to make a decision. All this smacks of increased desperation in trying to move still way-overpriced properties.
And wouldn't it be nice, if when announced, such short sales were required to publicly declare what amount is still actually owed on the house?
By the way, 734 12th, now pending, is an actual foreclosure but you wouldn't know it from the listing. Not everything is transparent.
Does anyone think that the price per sq foot of 457 24th is a comp for appropriate price per sq foot for 310 22nd? Putting it another way, what is the market clearing price for 310 22nd right now?
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Address: 457 24th - 90402
Details: 5 bed/4.5 bath 3,769 sq ft house, 8,699 sq ft lot
Description: Best value in prime N of Montana location. Modern 5BD + 4.5BA. Incredible indoor/outdoor feel w/tons of skylights, beams & custom architectural designs thruout. Step-down living rm w/FP & built-ins, formal dining rm & charming, bright breakfast rm. Open chef's kitchen w/granite counters & center island. Family rm opens to private yard w/large patio. Bright master suite boasts dbl walk-in closets, dressing area and large bath w/spa tub, glass brick shower & bidet. Fanklin School District.
Listing History: 3/26/09 - $2,595,000
Reduced at some point to - $2,495,000
SOLD: 7/21/09 - $2,250,000
"Does anyone think that the price per sq foot of 457 24th is a comp for appropriate price per sq foot for 310 22nd?"
Have you seen 457 24th? If you have you should know the answer to your own question.
FYI -- Per redfin, this sold on 12/11/09 for $1,294,003. $830/sq. foot.
Can we have a new thread? This blog has documented what seem to be a pretty substantial number of teardowns selling in the 90402 recently. That is all very well and good but most of us are not looking to buy a teardown and then write a check for a million dollars or more to construct. Most of us are looking for something we can move right in to and live in for the long term. Seems like almost no houses like this have sold in the 90402
RENT until the sellers cave in, get divorced, pass away, go into default, have to move to another city, etc. This is happening!!
New topic PLEASE!!!!!!!!!!!
Clean cup, clean cup. Move down.
YES YES YES
DISCUSS LIVABLE HOMES N OF MONTANA
Respectfully may I request a new blog?
I am a long time reader of this blog - those of you who like me have been here since the beginning know that many of us are primary care physicians waiting for the right time to buy North of Montana.
See the below thread - we have been hearing for two years now how the people that bought using option ARMs and liar loans are in foreclosure now. We see massive foreclosure sales all over - but not North of Montana.
Help me out here. What are the banks doing with the homes that are not paying their mortgage North of Montana. Are they giving loan modifications or are they foreclosing?
I follow the foreclosures North of Montana pretty closely and just don't see anything.
What is going on?
_
some of us chose a safe steady path in life and we will now be rewarded for it. My wife and I are both primary care physicians. We spent 2003-2007 having our kids literally laughed at in school by the children of lawyers and investment bankers over how little money doctors make. You can't understand what it is like to slave away in medical school and train and train and then get out of medical school with no hope of living North of Montana. The North of Montana moms are so rude and snobby towards people that can't afford North of Montana.
So it is sweet that all the lawyers and i bankers that laughed at me and my wife all those years will finally lose their jobs and lose their houses North of Montana to foreclosure. You are right they will get blown up, but for people like me and my wife who took the safe steady route, the collapse of the Santa Monica real estate market is indeed spectacular news. We WILL keep our jobs, and we will be able to buy in 2010. Again, there are more people like us than you know who will finally get treated fairly due to this collapse in prices
By the way what I mean is, we need a new thread to discuss the foreclosures North of Montana and the ability that foreclosures offer for people like us who were priced out before to buy
What is all this talk of foreclosure?
The houses in the Franklin school district are starting to move at full price.
Many houses have closed escrow in the past two months but four that I can think of closed at more than $3 million dollars. Do me a favor and look up each of these four.
533 18th St
$3,115K, 12/15/09, 4+5
5194 sqft, YB 1989, 8940 sqft lot
215 21st Pl
$3,200K, 12/11/09, 4+4
4598 sqft, YB 1998, 7600 sqft lot
428 21st Pl
$3,250K, 11/11/09, 5+4.5
4878 sqft, YB 1998, 9000 sqft lot
634 21st Pl
$3,450K, 11/10/09, 4+5
4800 sqft, YB 2001, 8940 sqft lot
Dec 25 doctor couple....
I don't know even where to start with your lame belly aching about 'Mothers laughing at you and your kids for not being able to afford NOMO'...jeez.
We should feel sorry for you that you and your wife chose an occupation that has an oath to help the sick? Your job is to help sick people...not be entitled to bazillions of dollars in income, or even enough income to buy an outrageously expensive exclusive 2M home.
You think people 'laugh at you and your kids' for not being able to afford a North of Montana home...are you fricking kidding me?
The better question here is....why the f#@* do you care what people say? Are you both that shallow? Are you both that insecure?
Lord, I hope I never get you as my doctors....
And FYI...this healthcare thingy is gonna be brutal to your industry...good luck with making more money now!
Brim over I to but I dream the list inform should have more info then it has.
Thank you 10:15 for giving the boo hoo primary whiners a good dose of reality.
Tortoise and the hare, slow and steady, we went to xx years of school and are entitled... blah, blah, blah. Face the facts - you picked a profession with an earnings ceiling, and should live accordingly. Waiting for your day (hoping others crap-out and foreclose) is a miserable and petty dream. Get a specialty, get a life, but guess what - you won't get the bonus the bankers and other professionals will get this year, and will fall further behind in your plans to get ahead on other people's failures. Do you also hope your patients will get sicker to collect more fees? Pathetic.
Sense of entitlement, ridiculously overpaid Wall Street types who add nothing of value to society, NOM obsession, just a few of the many of the problems with our society that are nicely captured in the last few posts.
Hey, it is fun to laugh at the doctors that can't afford to buy a house, but can we please return to the reason for this thread
that is the discussion of houses North of Montana
533 18th St
$3,115K,
215 21st Pl
$3,200K,
428 21st Pl
$3,250K,
634 21st Pl
$3,450K,
Notice a pattern? Four decent houses JUST closed escrow at $3 million plus.
Four houses.
What does that tell you about the market? Can anyone that actually went in to see these houses give us a report? I want to know what it takes to sell a house for a quick $3 million today.
Honestly, I get the sense that everyone on this blog is just like me - hungry and waiting for prices on nice houses to drop to a reasonable level. But these four sales seem to indicate that we aren't there yet
"Honestly, I get the sense that everyone on this blog is just like me - hungry and waiting for prices on nice houses to drop to a reasonable level. But these four sales seem to indicate that we aren't there yet"
I am not sure what/where the price bottom is, from my own situation, I am more than ready to buy. This year's bonus is a multiple of last year's barely six figures, and my firm is in recruiting mode (not losing my job after a year of uncertainty). Add to the fact my portfolio is about 80% of peak and there is mild recovery in the air, my confidence is back.
The real measure for me is seeing a few NOMA sales that look like fair buys. The spring should be interesting.
Speaking of lows for NOM, what is the story with 358 20th St?
6+4, 3602 sqft house
YB 1928, 8940 sqft lot
SOLD 12/08/09 for $1,200K
$333/sqft ???????
Inside deal or mistake on redfin?
www.santamonicameltdownthe90402.blogspot.com
358 20th may have been an intra-family transfer or sale or trust arrangement, something along those lines from the looks of things but then who knows what credence to give to public records nowadays? There are records and then there are other records. Still wondering how 610 California apparently sold for under $600K.
Presumably, all the people buying tear downs North of Montana are going to hire a GC to build them a new house.
Assume that the people buying these tear downs want a decent new 3500 square foot house, what are they going to pay, all in?
Putting it another way, someone buys a piece of land in the 90402 for 1.6 million - do they spend a total of 1.2 million in addition on everything else and are they therefore all in for 2.8 million?
Anyone have current info
How many times have you asked that identical question over the past year? 50?
Let's change the subject -
on Santa Monica distress, earlier this year we had a good conversation about people buying houses and what multiple of income their mortgage should be
specifically, there was a public defender that bought a house for 24 times his income and borrowed 18 times his income (ie his mortgage was 18 times income)
For those people buying today, what multiple of income are they buying at ? The thread is below
_____
WarChestSM said...
Sorry guys, but again I need to remind y'all that we don't want to be using names of people on the blog. Thus I had to delete a few comments (including DWR's helpful comment).
As for speculating on the circumstances of a certain buyer...well I think you are wasting your time and blowing a lot of hot air.
Prices will continue to decline for all the obvious reasons. There will be a small slice of buyers who were born into privileged lives and they will probably buy a few houses along the way. No big deal and no reason to sit here and speculate. Keep your eye on the ball. Take your speculation elsewhere.
February 8, 2009 8:55 PM
Anonymous said...
I agree with WarChest
however, the impact of this is important -
the other public defenders will see this guy and think "oh - 90402 is a neighborhood where public defenders should be living"
the point is that just cause you see people of a certain profession living in the 90402 doesn't mean that it is a neighborhood that is generally affordable for that profession
Anon 12:11 Will you get off the 'How much is it build a house?'
Are you retarded....?? You have asked that like, 100 x this year!
What answer are you looking for? That you can buy a NOMO lot for 1.5M and build for 1.3m?
Just because you keep running the numbers doesn't mean you are gonna get a different outcome....
533 18th St
$3,115K, 12/15/09, 4+5
5194 sqft, YB 1989, 8940 sqft lot
215 21st Pl
$3,200K, 12/11/09, 4+4
4598 sqft, YB 1998, 7600 sqft lot
Peculiar is that the first of these was never listed on the MLS and the second's 12/12/08 MLS listing expired back in June.
Wow, 409 16th is listed as sold for $1,635,000, per the MLS. Insane!
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