Sorry for the long silence. If you're following the Westside real estate market you know the story: very tight inventory and multiple offers above asking price on those properties that become available. I'm continuing to record inventory data to track the longer-term picture. So far this year looks a whole lot like last year. (New: click on images to enlarge)
Sunday, May 11, 2014
Sunday, March 31, 2013
1Q 2013 Inventory
The story of extremely low inventory continued on the Westside for the first quarter of 2012 for Santa Monica less than $3 million and the Westside in general (blue bars).
Sunday, January 27, 2013
2012 Inventory wrap-up
The big story for 2012 was much lower MLS inventory numbers throughout the year, for both Santa Monica less than $3 million and the Westside in general (the orange bars). Anecdotally desirable houses are selling very quickly, an expected result of low inventory and searching buyers.
We'll see if the trend continues in 2013. Will potential sellers allegedly waiting for a better market finally list? What about remaining foreclosures?
1/29/12 3/30 6/1 7/27 9/28 11/30 3/2 4/29 6/29 8/31 11/2 12/28 Bel Air-Holmby H. 99 94 96 90 100 107 103 99 104 100 92 79 Beverly Ctr.-M.M. 51 44 47 44 49 49 48 40 30 29 36 26 Beverly Hills 85 82 89 98 98 100 107 97 83 76 67 58 B.Hills P.O. 107 96 98 95 97 101 100 90 86 89 75 68 Beverlywood Vic. 51 44 38 44 43 40 39 34 34 30 22 21 Brentwood 87 94 92 104 104 83 85 75 85 67 66 48 Cheviot-R.Park '8' 19 14 16 22 19 19 21 17 11 4 6 5 Culver City 31 29 36 37 37 42 34 42 39 30 18 16 Malibu 174 198 191 189 192 186 180 164 155 137 139 122 Malibu Beach 82 77 71 71 74 85 83 83 74 67 67 57 Marina Del Rey 17 22 19 24 20 12 16 13 10 10 8 7 Pacific Palisades 89 94 89 96 114 111 107 90 101 76 66 54 Palms-Mar Vista 66 61 53 56 46 43 53 41 45 34 35 21 Playa Del Rey 19 23 16 14 10 13 11 8 10 10 11 7 Playa Vista 1 2 3 4 5 2 2 2 2 1 0 0 Santa Monica 55 57 56 61 61 66 54 49 51 41 42 27 Sunset-Hwd.Hills 192 188 188 203 213 212 209 183 189 186 162 126 Topanga 48 53 53 51 50 52 46 42 42 36 35 29 Venice 60 69 57 67 59 59 53 37 50 39 37 30 W.Hollywood Vic. 28 26 32 35 35 33 30 35 22 23 21 17 West L.A. 33 31 31 27 25 20 23 13 22 19 18 10 Westchester 45 38 33 45 44 39 46 36 23 27 26 22 Westwood-Cent.City 39 43 41 44 46 36 42 30 30 23 20 10 ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ 2012 Totals 1478 1445 1541 1492 1298 1069 1479 1521 1510 1320 1154 860 2011 Totals 1695 1797 2013 2022 1921 1648 1802 1908 1995 1896 1821 1397 2010 Totals 1585 1745 1998 2129 2094 1831 1691 1910 2038 2064 2062 1509 2009 Totals 2027 2281 2196 2233 2034 1827 2205 2262 2160 2133 1979 1486 2008 Totals 1509 1694 1917 2019 2006 2128 1524 1846 1974 1942 2085 1822 2007 Totals 1282 1274 1457 1522 1671 1600 1308 1377 1483 1551 1731 1329See 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, and 2011 monthly totals. Santa Monica here omits Santa Monica Canyon (in City of Los Angeles but S.M. Post Office).
Friday, November 23, 2012
Calculated Risk interview
Nice interview with Calculated Risk's Bill McBride on Business Insider (h/t Paul Krugman). CR/Bill was an icon to a lot of us back when (you know you were one if you recoginze his original masthead, above!).
JW: Are you surprised at the institution that Calculated Risk has become? Did you think you’d be going strong 7 years later?I'm still tracking Westside inventory monthly, just haven't gotten around to posting it. I'll do a year-end summary for 2012. The short summary is, significantly lower inventory than previous years.
BM: It’ll be 8 years in January. I didn’t even know what a blog was. I’m going to start one and figure out what it is, and I’m going to write about housing, because that’s what I’m most concerned about. …What happens is it just got more and more interesting, the truth is I’m always interested in the economy
Tuesday, January 3, 2012
Krugman: Obama, Romney, Jobs
Paul Krugman posted this chart today that really says it all.
Greg Sargent is rightly outraged by Romney’s claim that Obama is a job destroyer ... Does this look to you like a president who “lost jobs”, or like a president who inherited an economy in free fall? You can accuse Obama of not doing enough to promote recovery — and I have (although the biggest villain here was Romney’s own party). But to claim that Obama caused the job loss is indefensible.(There's so much to say in this election year, I think you're going to be hearing rather more from me.)
Sunday, January 1, 2012
Low-end 90402 and 90405 sales in 2011
Ah, Redfin. I used to manually track and report listings and subsequent sales for Santa Monica 90402 and 90405. Now it's as simple as putting a zipcode into Redfin, selecting sales within the last year, and sorting by price.
So here are the 2011 sale prices to $1.75M in 90402 on the regular streets (omitting busy 7th, 26th, and San Vicente). Conclusion is there's little low-end, and it's continued to hold between $1.6M and $1.7M since the crash.
Address, bed/bath, sale price
210 21st Pl., 2/2, $1,625K
620 17th St., 2/1.75, $1,650K
533 10th St., 3/2, $1,692K
828 Georgina Ave., 3/2, $1,693K
220 12th St., 2/1.5, $1,700K
434 17th St., 3/2, $1,725K
620 15th St., 3/2, $1,730K
445 18th St., 3/2, $1,747K
And here are 2011 sale prices to $900K in 90405 Sunset Park, omitting busy streets (Ocean Park, Pearl, Marine, 11th, 14th, 17th, Cloverfield, 23rd), 40-foot-wide lots, and airport-adjacent.
Here I'm seeing a continuing price decline, with quite a few sales below $800K, in contrast to even two years ago, let alone peak Ashland and Hill sales prices 2005-2008 well over $1M, and Hill Street back to 2004.
1514 Maple St., 2/2, $675K
1337 Grant St., 2/1, $675K
1741 Cedar St., 3/1, $730K
2345 21st St., 4/3, $750K
2025 Ashland Ave., 3/2.5, $770K
2940 16th St., 3/2, $775K
1109 Maple St., 2/1, $798K
1114 Maple St., 3/1.75, $814K
2315 27th St., 2/1, $825K
2417 18th St., 4/2, $849K
1044 Maple St., 3/3, $873K
1808 Ashland Ave., 3/1, $875K
2216 Pier Ave., 4/2.5, $880K
2255 22nd St., 2/1, $900K
Friday, December 30, 2011
S&P/Case-Shiller (October) and DataQuick (November)
Completing statistics for the end of 2011, the October S&P/Case-Shiller, is continuing down in both Los Angeles and the 10-city Composite. Los Angeles is down 39.6% from its September 2006 peak, at September 2003 levels. The national (orange line, their original 10-city Composite) index is down 31.9% from its peak in June 2006. The Low, Middle, and High tiers are also graphed. The left column on the chart is peak to bottom; the right is peak to current month.
The DataQuick numbers for November also show an overall downtrend. Los Angeles County's median was at $308K, down 424.0% from its peak in August 2007. That left Los Angeles County at May 2003, Orange County prices at April 2003, Ventura County at February 2003, and San Diego County at May 2002.
Finally, here is the updated Los Angeles Case-Shiller index scaled with the Los Angeles DataQuick median price history (normalized Case-Shiller's January 2000 = 100). The Case-Shiller data is a month older and a three-month average.
The DataQuick numbers for November also show an overall downtrend. Los Angeles County's median was at $308K, down 424.0% from its peak in August 2007. That left Los Angeles County at May 2003, Orange County prices at April 2003, Ventura County at February 2003, and San Diego County at May 2002.
Finally, here is the updated Los Angeles Case-Shiller index scaled with the Los Angeles DataQuick median price history (normalized Case-Shiller's January 2000 = 100). The Case-Shiller data is a month older and a three-month average.
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