Low-end Sunset Park?

What is low-end Sunset Park worth? This 2 bed / 1 bath tenant-occupied fixer with guest house at 1032 Maple St. is asking $1,149K. We already saw it as one of Four on Maple St last month.
This 2 bed / 1 bath house with guest house (unpermitted shower) and converted garage (unpermitted) at 1428 Oak St. is asking $1,295K.

Although its decor is fixed up, its kitchen and bathroom are original 1937, spun as, "Hard-to-find Vintage Calif jewel! Hip habitat for today’s multi-purpose lifestyle: Bright/spacious house+2 det’d studio/office/guest structures. RenovatedRetro: StreamlineModerne/PanPacific." Original now equals "hip" and "retro" at a price premium?

Recent nearby comps include 1505 Oak, 3 bed / 2 bath, sold 8/22/07 for $1,050K; 1126 Maple, 3 bed / 1 bath, sold 8/8/07 for $1,075K.

September Melissa data

Remember last month I did this chart of weighted-average sales for Santa Monica zip codes 90402 and 90405, and Mar Vista 90066, from Melissa Data? Above it's updated with September sales, and taken back to the beginning of 2002 for a longer trend. Number sold rebounded some to 48 from the August depths of 34, but is still well below 2006's 67. As before, I highlighted in yellow the 2nd Quarter of each year, typically the peak.

Below I've separated sales and average prices for the three zip codes. Note the very small number of sales (2 and 1) and average price ($1,275K and $1,713K) for August and September in 90402. Apparently including condos, it implies no high-end houses sold for two months. (A note on the graph format: I try to make these legible without needing to be enlarged, to keep the image file sizes as small as possible for faster downloads.)

Weekly inventory update

9/7 - SM inventory <$3M is up 10% for the week, and the highest this year; PP <$2M is up 4%; MV is down 1%.

       LA County  Santa Monica  Pacific Palisades  Mar Vista
                <$3M New Tot DOM<$2M New Tot DOM Tot New DOM
       _________ _______________ _______________ ___________

 1/30/06  27,732
 2/28/06  29,420
 3/31/06  31,819
 4/21/06  33,054  35
 5/ 1/06  34,032  38  33
 6/ 2/06  37,847  56  36      38
 6/30/06  42,317  66  40      49
 8/ 4/06  45,315  70  34      50
 9/ 1/06  46,781  71  27      59
10/ 6/06  47,369  83  25  98  71
11/ 3/06  45,780  80  20  91  77
12/ 1/06  43,103  65  18  72  96  39  20
 1/ 5/07  35,646  54   4  60 117  33   6  71  66
 2/ 2/07  36,715  38  15  45 124  29  16  61  71
 3/ 2/07  41,251  42  14  51 114  26  10  68  79  53  25  76
 4/ 6/07  42,857  41  23  49 107  18   8  73 103  52  52  50
 5/ 4/07  45,918  46  28  54  92  19   6  82  79  68  37  52
 6/ 1/07  52,198  50  25  61  78  17  15  87  78  77  39  53
 6/30/07  52,769  42  18  56  81  17  11  92  77  74  33  61
 8/ 3/07  54,166  53  28  68  86  23  12  78  76  84  39  68
 8/31/07  57,432  57  21  72  98  18   7  69  75  90  40  79
 9/28/07          59  17  74 103  26   9  90  81  87  20  87
10/ 5/07  58,973  65   8  81  98  27   2  95  85  86   6  87
10/12/07

"Philanthropist Landlords"

Hope you all caught Bubble Markets Inventory Tracking's hilarious "Philanthropist Landlords" post yesterday, featuring two of Santa Monica Distress Monitor's recent SM buyers renting at big losses.

Realtor.com survey

Last night I got a pop-up survey at the Realtor.com website. Go there to see if you get it too; if it doesn't come up, here's the direct survey link. Here are its questions (emphasis added). (Answering No to #1, I didn't see the conditional questions, but still got them copying the survey text. Hmmm.)

1. Do you expect to purchase a home in the next six months?
_ Yes
_ No

2. How do you expect home prices in the area in which you are searching to change over the next 12 months? {Please select one response}
_ Rise rapidly
_ Rise slowly
_ Stay the same
_ Fall slowly
_ Fall rapidly

[If rise on #2] 3. By what percent do you expect home prices to rise, on average, in the next 12 months? {Please insert a whole percent} _____

[If fall on #2] 3. By what percent do you expect home prices to fall, on average, in the next 12 months? {Please insert a whole percent.} _____

4. Do you currently own a home?
_ Yes
_ No

[If Yes to #1] 6. What sort of home are you looking to buy? {Please select one response}
_ A home to live in as a primary residence
_ A second home for seasonal/occasional use
_ A home to rent out year round or for another investment purpose
_ A home for a child or other relative
_ Other

[If Yes to #1] 7. What is the price range on which you are focusing your home search? {Please select one response}
_ Under $100,000
_ $100,000 - $200,000
_ $200,000 - $300,000
_ $300,000 - $400,000
_ $500,000 - $750,000
_ $750,000 - $1 million
_ Over $1 million

[If Yes to #1] 8. Have you made an offer on a home during this current search?
_ Yes
_ No

[If Yes to #8] 9. Was your offer higher, lower, or the same as the asking price? {Please select one response}
_ Higher
_ Lower
_ Same as asking price

[If Yes to #?] 10. Have you placed your current home on the market? {Please select one response}
_ Yes, with an agent
_ Yes, for-sale-by-owner
_ No, not yet
_ No, don't intend to sell current home
_ Under contract or already sold

[If Yes to #?] 11. Have you lowered your asking price of your current home since you first placed it on the market?
_ Yes
_ No

[If Yes to #?] 12. Which of the following work have you done or do you intend to do in order to prepare your current home for sale? {Please check all that apply}
_ Interior re-paint or re-paper
_ Interior alterations or remodeling
_ Exterior repainting
_ Other work on the exterior of the home
_ Addition to the home
_ Electrical, plumbing, heating, or air conditioning upgrades
_ Landscaping or other improvements to grounds
_ No projects to prepare the home for sale
_ Other minor projects (Please specify:)
_ Other major projects (Please specify:)

[If Yes to #?] 13. Approximately how much have you spent or do you intend to spend in order to prepare your home for sale? {Please select one response}
_ None
_ Less than $100
_ $100 - $500
_ $501 - $1000
_ $1,001 - $5,000
_ More than $5,000

5. You are almost done. The next couple questions are just to categorize your responses with other survey participants.

What is your age? {Please select one response}
_ Under 25
_ 25 - 34
_ 35 - 44
_ 45 - 54
_ 55 - 64
_ 65 or older

6. What is your approximate annual household income? {Please select one response} [not required]
_ Less than $25,000
_ $25,000 - $50,000
_ $50,000 - $75,000
_ $75,000 - $100,000
_ More than $100,000

7. What is the zip code of your current residence? {Please insert your zip code} _____

Thank you for taking our survey. Your opinions are very important to us.

"Are we at the bottom yet?"

(I intended some comments, but didn't want the photo to wait...)

For everyone claiming the bottom is in sight, that the downturn was just about sub-prime turmoil the last couple of months, remember how we got here. Rising prices created an expectation of easy profits, which created more speculative fervor. No-down, no-doc, teaser-rate loans fueled the last push upward.

Finally the bubble stalled, from nothing left to inflate it further. Overbuilt and inner-city markets began falling. Our part of the Westside mostly plateaued on price, with a lot of impasse on overpriced inventory.

But the expectations and loan standards that got us here are gone. Our sales depend on assets, not just income and loans. But both houses sold to move up and stock prices based on an economy based heavily on housing and consumer spending become shaky too.

Will prices fall? Some owners have to sell, and will reduce prices if that's what it takes. High-end specs not selling will reduce demand for low-end tear-downs and fixers.

Last time prices fell 27%, mostly over three years from 1990 to 1994. If this year is 1990, we'll be nearing the Colorado River at the bottom of the Grand Canyon around 2011, give or take. We're only a little way down the trail.

"Large corner lot" north of Montana

How about this recent 4 bed / 3.50 bath listing at 754 23rd St., asking $2,395K? "WOW! Large 2-story Tudor on large corner lot in great Gillette Regent Square area and priced to sell. Clean move-in condition with large formal entry, the home with its large living room and open cathedral ceiling, large formal dining room and spacious family room is ideal for large gatherings and perfect for entertaining. 4th bedroom downstairs has its own bath. Private landscaped yard has porch and covered patio. There are beautiful hardwood floors, new caperting, new roof, W/B f/p and more...."

Except the lot is on the corner of Montana Ave., catty-corner from Franklin School, with apartments to the south and west. (enlarge photo)

In other Santa Monica news over the weekend, 1028 Maple is in escrow, and 1100-1108 Ocean Park and 239 14th appear to have expired after four months on the market. And 724 Navy St., unsold since 5/6/07, suddenly has a new listing date of 9/29/07, price unchanged at $899K.