Only a bubble blogger would think of this, but ... how do homes lost compare with current inventory of houses for sale and the monthly sales rate? Has the fire Devil solved California's housing bubble? Doesn't look like it.
Adding up the counties' numbers of houses destroyed from today's LA Times, compared with SFR-condo inventory and July sales from BMIT, we find:
Los Angeles - 24 destroyed - 59,029 inventory - 4,361 sales
Orange - 9 destroyed - 19,782 inventory - 1,643 sales
San Bernardino - 313 destroyed - 23,216 inventory - 1,509 sales
San Diego - 1,261 destroyed - 23,166 inventory - 2,152 sales
Again, our best to the firefighters and homeowners on the fire lines.
Thursday, October 25, 2007
Fire Devil vs. housing bubble?
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3 comments:
I think the issue is, will this cause people who would've bought in Malibu, Pacific Palisades, etc., to instead buy something on the westside and create a temporary sellers' market again in certain areas that are not prone to fires and mudslides every other year?
absolutely.
this will in my opinion push DOWN the prices in Malibu and push UP the prices in areas not subject to fire.
However, the downward pressure in malibu will be greater than upward pressure in other areas
I wondered myself if the fire might cause a spike in sales. I have no science for this so it is only a guess, but I think those who don't rebuild in place may do what a lot of others are doing. That is, watching and waiting. After all, they are hearing the same news we are, except that now they are buyers, not potential sellers.
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