Westside Bubble

Krugman: Obama, Romney, Jobs

2012-01-03T14:06:00.000-08:00

Paul Krugman posted this chart today that really says it all.

Greg Sargent is rightly outraged by Romney’s claim that Obama is a job destroyer ... Does this look to you like a president who “lost jobs”, or like a president who inherited an economy in free fall? You can accuse Obama of not doing enough to promote recovery — and I have (although the biggest villain here was Romney’s own party). But to claim that Obama caused the job loss is indefensible.

(There's so much to say in this election year, I think you're going to be hearing rather more from me.)

Low-end 90402 and 90405 sales in 2011

2012-01-01T14:08:00.000-08:00

Ah, Redfin. I used to manually track and report listings and subsequent sales for Santa Monica 90402 and 90405. Now it's as simple as putting a zipcode into Redfin, selecting sales within the last year, and sorting by price.

So here are the 2011 sale prices to $1.75M in 90402 on the regular streets (omitting busy 7th, 26th, and San Vicente). Conclusion is there's little low-end, and it's continued to hold between $1.6M and $1.7M since the crash.

Address, bed/bath, sale price

210 21st Pl., 2/2, $1,625K
620 17th St., 2/1.75, $1,650K
533 10th St., 3/2, $1,692K
828 Georgina Ave., 3/2, $1,693K
220 12th St., 2/1.5, $1,700K
434 17th St., 3/2, $1,725K
620 15th St., 3/2, $1,730K
445 18th St., 3/2, $1,747K

And here are 2011 sale prices to $900K in 90405 Sunset Park, omitting busy streets (Ocean Park, Pearl, Marine, 11th, 14th, 17th, Cloverfield, 23rd), 40-foot-wide lots, and airport-adjacent.

Here I'm seeing a continuing price decline, with quite a few sales below $800K, in contrast to even two years ago, let alone peak Ashland and Hill sales prices 2005-2008 well over $1M, and Hill Street back to 2004.

1514 Maple St., 2/2, $675K
1337 Grant St., 2/1, $675K
1741 Cedar St., 3/1, $730K
2345 21st St., 4/3, $750K
2025 Ashland Ave., 3/2.5, $770K
2940 16th St., 3/2, $775K
1109 Maple St., 2/1, $798K
1114 Maple St., 3/1.75, $814K
2315 27th St., 2/1, $825K
2417 18th St., 4/2, $849K
1044 Maple St., 3/3, $873K
1808 Ashland Ave., 3/1, $875K
2216 Pier Ave., 4/2.5, $880K
2255 22nd St., 2/1, $900K

S&P/Case-Shiller (October) and DataQuick (November)

2011-12-30T22:33:00.000-08:00

Completing statistics for the end of 2011, the October S&P/Case-Shiller, is continuing down in both Los Angeles and the 10-city Composite. Los Angeles is down 39.6% from its September 2006 peak, at September 2003 levels. The national (orange line, their original 10-city Composite) index is down 31.9% from its peak in June 2006. The Low, Middle, and High tiers are also graphed. The left column on the chart is peak to bottom; the right is peak to current month.

The DataQuick numbers for November also show an overall downtrend. Los Angeles County's median was at $308K, down 424.0% from its peak in August 2007. That left Los Angeles County at May 2003, Orange County prices at April 2003, Ventura County at February 2003, and San Diego County at May 2002.

Finally, here is the updated Los Angeles Case-Shiller index scaled with the Los Angeles DataQuick median price history (normalized Case-Shiller's January 2000 = 100). The Case-Shiller data is a month older and a three-month average.

December 2011 Inventory

2011-12-30T22:11:00.000-08:00

Wrapping up 2011, here are year-end MLS inventory numbers for Santa Monica and the greater Westside. In general they're running a bit below the last two years for the second half of 2011, except for Santa Monica over $3 million. See older posts for Santa Monica new listings and sales.

All Westside

              1/28/11     4/2    5/28    7/30    9/30    12/2
                     2/26    4/30     7/1     9/9   10/28   12/30  

Bel Air-Holmby H. 113 118 114 115 124 119 131 122 127 121 104  91
Beverly Ctr.-M.M.  63  71  70  74  79  78  82  66  59  45  54  42
Beverly Hills      96 103 104 115 118 118 117 106 100  83  85  77
B.Hills P.O.      119 131 123 130 134 130 134 139 133 138 129 107
Beverlywood Vic.   43  53  62  54  63  57  65  63  69  63  58  48
Brentwood          89  95  97 101 106 109 107 109 115 104 102  85
Cheviot-R.Park '8' 26  23  24  24  32  41  36  28  25  22  20  17
Culver City        37  44  49  52  56  65  57  55  44  44  40  34
Malibu            202 212 229 244 252 240 242 218 214 213 188 171
Malibu Beach       82  85  84  89  94 100  98  98  99  96  89  79
Marina Del Rey     20  25  30  30  31  32  25  27  26  23  17  15
Pacific Palisades 108 101  98 123 135 138 132 110 120 115  93  75
Palms-Mar Vista    64  66  61  75  80  93  95 101  90  85  78  65
Playa Del Rey      17  16  20  23  23  17  21  20  19  21  18  13
Playa Vista         2   3   2   3   5   4   4   1   1   2   1   1
Santa Monica       71  78  74  77  74  81  87  74  76  74  64  50
Sunset-Hwd.Hills  229 232 230 232 220 222 236 220 237 234 215 185
Topanga            63  65  60  66  71  64  64  66  70  72  64  56
Venice             77  82  78  84  91  86  82  80  75  69  67  58
W.Hollywood Vic.   36  37  40  41  47  48  50  47  52  47  40  36
West L.A.          42  61  38  47  61  39  32  29  37  29  28  24
Westchester        60  71  65  56  63  61  71  72  82  68  57  46
Westwood-Cent.City 36  30  45  53  54  53  54  45  51  53  37  22
                  ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ 

2011 Totals      1695    1797    2013    2022    1921    1648
                     1802    1908    1995    1896    1821    1397
2010 Totals      1585    1745    1998    2129    2094    1831    
                     1691    1910    2038    2064    2062    1509
2009 Totals      2027    2281    2196    2233    2034    1827 
                     2205    2262    2160    2133    1979    1486 
2008 Totals      1509    1694    1917    2019    2006    2128 
                     1524    1846    1974    1942    2085    1822 
2007 Totals      1282    1274    1457    1522    1671    1600 
                     1308    1377    1483    1551    1731    1329

See 2007, 2008, 2009, and 2010 monthly totals. Santa Monica here omits Santa Monica Canyon (in City of Los Angeles but S.M. Post Office).

"Someone else's responsibility"

2011-12-27T00:26:00.000-08:00

The lead story in the LA Times today, "Obama shifts his message on economy", featured this quote on the inside page:

In a Wall Street Journal column Thursday, Karl Rove, the former chief strategist to President George W. Bush, publicly pushed that line of attack as he accused Obama of "pretending the past three years are someone else's responsibility."

As if the economic debacle wasn't George W. Bush's responsibility?!

The next bubble?

2011-12-18T22:51:00.000-08:00

I'm certainly not the first to fear that policies in the aftermath of this bubble will create another one. Today's LA Times "Conditions are ripe for reprise of real estate schemes and fraud" (Kenneth R. Harney, Washington Post Writers Group) documents it's heading that way.

Could today's seductive conditions in the housing market — severely marked-down prices, record low interest rates and hundreds of thousands of foreclosures waiting to be resold — be breeding new generations of the very practices that led to the crash?

In an ironic twist, there are signs that the wreckage left over from the housing bust may be reigniting dubious real estate schemes and fraud. According to researchers:

• Property flippers are back in action in places like south Florida and Las Vegas ...

• So-called floppers are defrauding banks by hijacking short sales at prices below what legitimate buyers are willing to pay. ...

• Creative "credit enhancement" companies are "renting" investors the bank account balances they need to demonstrate to lenders that they have the financial wherewithal to qualify for a mortgage. ...

• Investors are hoodwinking lenders into giving them low down payments and rock-bottom interest rates by lying about their intentions to occupy the property they plan to buy as a principal residence. ...

How about some timely enforcement this time?

Added: "Treat foreclosure as a crime scene" in Politico

Nevada gets tough

2011-12-10T13:27:00.000-08:00

Remember the calls for prosecution of those who caused the housing bubble and crash? Especially Keith on the late, great Housing Panic blog calling for "perp walks"?

It's finally happening in Nevada according to today's LA Times.

Assembly Bill 284, which took effect in October, requires those foreclosing on a home to file an affidavit proving they have the right to bring the action — and it increases civil and criminal penalties for using fraudulent documents in a foreclosure.
...

A Clark County grand jury in November indicted two Southern California title officers on a combined 606 felony and misdemeanor counts, alleging the two headed a vast "robo-signing" operation in which tens of thousands of foreclosure documents were fraudulently filed in the Las Vegas area.

Yes, I'm still following the long bursting of the bubble, and have to think the then-new blogosphere will be a central part of documenting its history.

Over half yet to go...

2011-11-19T11:00:00.000-08:00

The LA Times yesterday supported our expectation that the unwind of the housing bubble still has a long way to go. Under the upbeat title "Fewer loans going bad" the opening paragraphs say it:

Fewer home loans are in trouble these days, but despite some improvements, the nation is not even halfway through cleaning up the foreclosure mess, industry experts said.

It could take three or four years to return to a typical pattern of delinquencies and foreclosures, the Mortgage Bankers Assn. said in releasing its quarterly delinquency report Thursday. ...

But the Center for Responsible Lending, a nonpartisan advocacy group that accurately predicted a foreclosure tidal wave in 2006, issued its own assessment Thursday: 2.7 million American households had lost their homes as of February, with an even greater number to come.

The advocacy group, which analyzed 27 million home loans made from 2004 through 2008, estimated that an additional 3.6 million mortgages were in foreclosure or likely to fail.

July 2011 Inventory, June Sales

2011-07-30T23:03:00.000-07:00

Told you I've been keeping my Westside MLS Inventory counts going. Here are numbers for Santa Monica and the greater Westside through July, 2011. In short, mid-2011 is looking a lot like mid-2010. Reduced inventory over $3M may reflect houses falling below that price threshold.

Here are Sold listings for Santa Monica, showing a decline compared with 2010 the last couple of months after a fast start. (To spend less time on this, I've stopped keeping individual listing records for Santa Monica, and these sold listing are concluded.)

All Westside

                 1/28     4/2    5/28    7/30
                     2/26    4/30     7/1     

Bel Air-Holmby H. 113 118 114 115 124 119 131
Beverly Ctr.-M.M.  63  71  70  74  79  78  82
Beverly Hills      96 103 104 115 118 118 117
B.Hills P.O.      119 131 123 130 134 130 134
Beverlywood Vic.   43  53  62  54  63  57  65
Brentwood          89  95  97 101 106 109 107
Cheviot-R.Park '8' 26  23  24  24  32  41  36
Culver City        37  44  49  52  56  65  57
Malibu            202 212 229 244 252 240 242
Malibu Beach       82  85  84  89  94 100  98
Marina Del Rey     20  25  30  30  31  32  25
Pacific Palisades 108 101  98 123 135 138 132
Palms-Mar Vista    64  66  61  75  80  93  95
Playa Del Rey      17  16  20  23  23  17  21
Playa Vista         2   3   2   3   5   4   4
Santa Monica       71  78  74  77  74  81  87
Sunset-Hwd.Hills  229 232 230 232 220 222 236
Topanga            63  65  60  66  71  64  64
Venice             77  82  78  84  91  86  82
W.Hollywood Vic.   36  37  40  41  47  48  50
West L.A.          42  61  38  47  61  39  32
Westchester        60  71  65  56  63  61  71
Westwood-Cent.City 36  30  45  53  54  53  54
___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ 

2011 Totals      1695    1797    2013    2109
                     1802    1908    1995
2010 Totals      1585    1745    1998    2129    2094    1831    
                     1691    1910    2038    2064    2062    1509
2009 Totals      2027    2281    2196    2233    2034    1827 
                     2205    2262    2160    2133    1979    1486 
2008 Totals      1509    1694    1917    2019    2006    2128 
                     1524    1846    1974    1942    2085    1822 
2007 Totals      1282    1274    1457    1522    1671    1600 
                     1308    1377    1483    1551    1731    1329

See 2007, 2008, 2009, and 2010 monthly totals. Santa Monica here omits Santa Monica Canyon (in City of Los Angeles but S.M. Post Office).

S&P/Case-Shiller (May) and DataQuick (June)

2011-07-30T22:18:00.000-07:00

Catching up ... the May 2011 S&P/Case-Shiller, although a slight uptick for the month, essentially continues the secondary peak and decline in both Los Angeles and the 10-city Composite, now down 38.3% from its September 2006 peak, at October 2003 levels. The national (orange line, their original 10-city Composite) index is down 32.1% from its peak in June 2006. The Low, Middle, and High tiers are also graphed. The left column on the chart is peak to bottom; the right is peak to current month.

The DataQuick numbers for June also show an overall downtrend for three of the four counties. Los Angeles County's median was at $318K, down 42.2% from its peak in August 2007. That left Los Angeles County at June 2003, Orange County prices at November 2003, Ventura County at March 2003, and San Diego County at July 2002.

S&P/Case-Shiller (February) and DataQuick (March)

2011-04-26T22:13:00.000-07:00

No, I haven't entirely disappeared.... Today's February 2011 S&P/Case-Shiller continues the secondary peak and decline in both Los Angeles and the 10-city Composite, now down 38.6% from its September 2006 peak, at December 2003 levels. The national (orange line, their original 10-city Composite) index is down 32.5% from its peak in June 2006. The Low, Middle, and High tiers are also graphed. The left column on the chart is peak to bottom; the right is peak to current month.

The DataQuick numbers for March also show an overall downtrend for the four counties. Los Angeles County's median was at $310K, down 41.8% from its peak in August 2007. That left Los Angeles County at June 2003, Orange County prices at June 2003, Ventura County at February 2003, and San Diego County at June 2002.

Finally, here is the updated Los Angeles Case-Shiller index scaled with the Los Angeles DataQuick median price history (normalized Case-Shiller's January 2000 = 100). The Case-Shiller data is a month older and a three-month average.

January 2011 Inventory, Sold

2011-02-02T08:28:00.000-08:00

Here are the year-end 2010 Inventory, Sold, and New listings numbers, plus January 2011. I keep the counts going, but haven't gotten around to posting them very often. To make them simpler I've also dropped New listings for 2011.

The housing bubble is not new news anymore, but its effects aren't over yet and I want to keep this statistical record going.

So where are we? So far the latter part of 2010 and beginning of 2011 are looking pretty close to the year before, when prices neither rose nor fell. We'll see how this spring plays out.

All Westside

                 1/29     4/2    5/30     8/1    10/3   11/26    1/28
                     2/26    4/30     7/3     9/3   10/31   12/31 

Bel Air-Holmby H.  91  99 109 111 111 131 133 119 116 121 111 100 113
Beverly Ctr.-M.M.  58  66  75  74  91  92  88  79  81  78  73  56  63
Beverly Hills      96 115 103 117 118 124 126 106 118 130 117  91  96
B.Hills P.O.      127 126 124 136 142 137 138 139 128 132 120 102 119
Beverlywood Vic.   31  34  36  41  50  57  57  61  60  59  48  38  43
Brentwood         102 115 113 129 137 127 134 125 144 131 116  86  89
Cheviot-R.Park '8' 21  18  20  28  27  34  31  28  33  25  25  19  26
Culver City        30  36  35  36  39  39  53  49  53  39  43  40  37
Malibu            209 215 211 226 231 242 233 237 230 226 206 177 202
Malibu Beach       75  70  72  76  72  84  87  84  78  78  79  73  82
Marina Del Rey     27  31  26  28  27  25  28  23  22  17  16  16  20
Pacific Palisades 106 107 122 148 148 134 140 136 142 136 124  94 108
Palms-Mar Vista    58  65  67  88  91  77  87  91  90  84  60  56  64
Playa Del Rey      14  13  17  25  23  23  29  33  33  29  18  16  17
Playa Vista         4   3   4   4   4   5   7   7   5   3   3   2   2
Santa Monica       68  74  79  87  88  81  88  88  81  90  73  58  71
Sunset-Hwd.Hills  214 228 231 246 259 267 278 274 283 276 245 213 229
Topanga            53  66  69  71  71  68  72  61  61  62  56  55  63
Venice             61  66  80  75  81  90  98  93  93  97  86  71  77
W.Hollywood Vic.   37  36  25  32  36  42  47  46  54  56  50  37  36
West L.A.          12  17  21  21  23  26  33  55  62  61  60  29  42
Westchester        49  47  48  56  58  70  70  77  79  72  65  48  60
Westwood-Cent.City 42  44  58  55  71  63  72  53  48  60  37  32  36
                  ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ 

2010 Totals      1585    1745    1998    2129    2094    1831    1695
                     1691    1910    2038    2064    2062    1509
2009 Totals      2027    2281    2196    2233    2034    1827
                     2205    2262    2160    2133    1979    1486
2008 Totals      1509    1694    1917    2019    2006    2128
                     1524    1846    1974    1942    2085    1822
2007 Totals      1282    1274    1457    1522    1671    1600
                     1308    1377    1483    1551    1731    1329

See 2007, 2008, and 2009 monthly totals. Santa Monica here omits Santa Monica Canyon (in City of Los Angeles but S.M. Post Office).

S&P/Case-Shiller (November) and DataQuick (December)

2011-01-25T13:44:00.000-08:00

Today's November 2010 S&P/Case-Shiller continues the small secondary peak and decline in both Los Angeles and the 10-city Composite, now down 36.7% from its September 2006 peak, at December 2003 levels. The national (orange line, their original 10-city Composite) index is down 30.3% from its peak in June 2006. The Low, Middle, and High tiers are also graphed. The left column on the chart is peak to bottom; the right is peak to current month.

The DataQuick numbers for January also show a downtrend for the four counties. Los Angeles County's median was at $340K, down 40.0% from its peak in August 2007. That left Los Angeles County at July 2003, Orange County prices at June 2003, Ventura County at March 2003, and San Diego County at July 2002.

Finally, here is the updated Los Angeles Case-Shiller index scaled with the Los Angeles DataQuick median price history (normalized Case-Shiller's January 2000 = 100). The Case-Shiller data is a month older and a three-month average.

Inside Job

2010-11-23T15:21:00.000-08:00

Finally saw the documentary Inside Job. Whew! Unlike the typical movie drama, this is about reality and there's no hero to win over evil in the end. The elites prevailed. Duh!

October Inventory, Sold, New

2010-11-03T19:54:00.001-07:00

I've been continuing to capture numbers, but haven't gotten to posting in awhile. So here is the update for the end of October. The short version is that Santa Monica and Westside inventory numbers may be high enough, and the economy weak enough, to follow the path of two years ago (late 2008 into spring 2009) that brought the 20%+ drop in Santa Monica benchmark prices. You see that in the high inventory and low sales turquoise bars in the first half of the year. We'll see.

All Westside

                 1/29     4/2    5/30     8/1    10/3   11/26
                     2/26    4/30     7/3     9/3   10/31   12/31 

Bel Air-Holmby H.  91  99 109 111 111 131 133 119 116 121
Beverly Ctr.-M.M.  58  66  75  74  91  92  88  79  81  78
Beverly Hills      96 115 103 117 118 124 126 106 118 130
B.Hills P.O.      127 126 124 136 142 137 138 139 128 132
Beverlywood Vic.   31  34  36  41  50  57  57  61  60  59
Brentwood         102 115 113 129 137 127 134 125 144 131
Cheviot-R.Park '8' 21  18  20  28  27  34  31  28  33  25
Culver City        30  36  35  36  39  39  53  49  53  39
Malibu            209 215 211 226 231 242 233 237 230 226
Malibu Beach       75  70  72  76  72  84  87  84  78  78
Marina Del Rey     27  31  26  28  27  25  28  23  22  17
Pacific Palisades 106 107 122 148 148 134 140 136 142 136
Palms-Mar Vista    58  65  67  88  91  77  87  91  90  84
Playa Del Rey      14  13  17  25  23  23  29  33  33  29
Playa Vista         4   3   4   4   4   5   7   7   5   3
Santa Monica       68  74  79  87  88  81  88  88  81  90
Sunset-Hwd.Hills  214 228 231 246 259 267 278 274 283 276
Topanga            53  66  69  71  71  68  72  61  61  62
Venice             61  66  80  75  81  90  98  93  93  97
W.Hollywood Vic.   37  36  25  32  36  42  47  46  54  56
West L.A.          12  17  21  21  23  26  33  55  62  61
Westchester        49  47  48  56  58  70  70  77  79  72
Westwood-Cent.City 42  44  58  55  71  63  72  53  48  60
                  ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ 

2010 Totals      1585    1745    1998    2129    2094
                     1691    1910    2038    2064    2062
2009 Totals      2027    2281    2196    2233    2034    1827
                     2205    2262    2160    2133    1979    1486
2008 Totals      1509    1694    1917    2019    2006    2128
                     1524    1846    1974    1942    2085    1822
2007 Totals      1282    1274    1457    1522    1671    1600
                     1308    1377    1483    1551    1731    1329

See 2007, 2008, and 2009 monthly totals. Santa Monica here omits Santa Monica Canyon (in City of Los Angeles but S.M. Post Office).

S&P/Case-Shiller (August) and DataQuick (September)

2010-11-03T19:47:00.001-07:00

Last week's August 2010 S&P/Case-Shiller appears to represent a peak and beginning of a decline in both Los Angeles and the 10-city Composite, now down 35.7% from its September 2006 peak, at December 2003 levels. The national (orange line, their original 10-city Composite) index is down 28.3% from its peak in June 2006. The Low, Middle, and High tiers are also graphed. The left column on the chart is peak to bottom; the right is peak to current month.

The DataQuick numbers for September also appear to show a downtrend for the four counties. Los Angeles County's median was at $340K, down 38.2% from its peak in August 2007. That left Los Angeles County at November 2003, Orange County prices at October 2003, Ventura County at April 2003, and San Diego County at July 2002.

Finally, here is the updated Los Angeles Case-Shiller index scaled with the Los Angeles DataQuick median price history (normalized Case-Shiller's January 2000 = 100). The Case-Shiller data is a month older and a three-month average.

Also see Calculated Risk on the CoreLogic 1.5% year-year price decline for August.

S&P/Case-Shiller (May) and DataQuick (June)

2010-07-29T11:31:00.000-07:00

Tuesday's May 2010 S&P/Case-Shiller was an uptick for both Los Angeles and the 10-city Composite, but as a three-month average through May likely reflects the end of federal tax credits more than a rising trend.

Overall Los Angeles (including Orange County) was up 1.68% from April and 0.68% from March, down 0.70% from February and 0.67% from January, up 0.92% from December, 0.99% from November, 0.77% from October, 0.30% from September, 0.85% from August, and 1.6% from July, now down 36.2% from its September 2006 peak, at November 2003 levels. The national (orange line, their original 10-city Composite) index is down 29.6% from its peak in June 2006. The Low, Middle, and High tiers are also graphed. The left column on the chart is peak to bottom; the right is peak to current month.

For a view ahead, this chart from Barry Ritholtz's The Big Picture yesterday, of the S&P/Case-Shiller in real dollars, projects a continued fall to long-term values.

The DataQuick numbers for May show three of the four counties back down for the month. Los Angeles County's median was at $335K, down 39.1% from its peak in August 2007. That left Los Angeles County at September 2003, Orange County prices at October 2003, Ventura County at May 2003, and San Diego County at August 2002.

Finally, here is the updated Los Angeles Case-Shiller index scaled with the Los Angeles DataQuick median price history (normalized Case-Shiller's January 2000 = 100). The Case-Shiller data is a month older and a three-month average; the DataQuick downtick may be a leading indicator for Case-Shiller's dirction.

As I wrote last month, in general prices continue pretty flat since mid-2009, and likely to fall again as tax credits end, interest rates rise, and more foreclosures make it to market.

90403 - 90404 - Ocean Park 90405 sales March-June

2010-07-26T18:22:00.000-07:00

In the first of three parts, here are Santa Monica sales for the four months from March to June, 2010, except north of Montana and Sunset Park. These reflect the frenzy of buyers trying to get into the federal tax credit; things seem to have slowed down in July.

I've featured 750 Navy Street (photo above) that originally was listed on 3/3/08 for a whopping $1.9M. It finally sold REO for $781K, a 59% reduction!

Address, bed/bath, current price (-% from orig.), orig.list date, sale date, sale price (-% from last list price)

90403

614 California, 3/1.5, $849K, 5/6/10, 6/15/10, $895K (+5%)
838 25th, 2/1, $1,195K, 2/23/10, 3/31/10, $1,385K (+16%)
1043 Centinela, 2/1, $1,459K (-7%), 1/14/10, 6/4/10, $1,450K (-1%)
824 Stanford, 4/2, $1,649K (-17%), 9/11/08, 4/1/10, $1,564K (-5%)
933 Harvard, 3/2.5, $1,849K, 1/14/10, 3/23/10, $1,849K
1147 Centinela, 5/6, $2,795K (-7%), 9/30/09, 4/7/10, $2,650K (-5%)

90404

1917 12th, 2/1, $625K (-43%), 3/1/09, 3/15/10, $625K
3024 Arizona, 2/1, $699K, 1/5/10, 6/9/10, $735K (+5%)
3011 Urban, 3/2, $749K, 3/27/10, 6/15/10, $740K (-1%)
1321 Chelsea, 2/2, $795K (-15%), 1/7/10, 6/11/10, $750K (-6%)
3014 Delaware, 3/2, $825K (-3%), 11/11/09, 5/11/10, $800K (-3%)

Ocean Park 90405

718 Marine, 1/1, $559K, 2/18/10, 6/18/10, $535K (-4%)
725 Marine, 2/1, $769K, 3/4/10, 6/10/10, $765K (-1%)
708 Raymond, 2/1.25, $785K (-8%), 4/28/09, 3/10/10, $720K (-8%)
750 Navy (photo), 2/1.5, $799K (-58%), 3/3/08, 4/21/10, $781K (-2%)
713 Bay, 2/2, $897K, 2/25/10, 6/26/10, $875K (-2%)
711 Pine, 3/2, $1,295K (-12%), 4/6/09, 6/21/10, $1,200K (-7%)
2513 3rd, 3/1.75, $1,475K, 5/10/10, 6/8/10, $1,475K
528 Ocean Park, 3/3, $2,500K (-29%), 10/15/08, 6/15/10, $2,000K (-20%)

June Inventory, Sold, New

2010-07-06T17:43:00.000-07:00

Westside inventory has been running second-highest since 2006, below only last year's financial-meltdown levels. Santa Monica inventory below $3M has been similar until until June, when unusually-high sales (from the tax credit ending?) depleted listings. Santa Monica inventory above $3M has been slowly restoring from a very low fall 2009. New listings have been reasonably flat. See the bottom for the breakdown of the Westside totals.

All Westside

                 1/29     4/2    5/30    7/30    10/1   11/26
                     2/26    4/30     7/3    8/27   10/29   12/31 

Bel Air-Holmby H.  91  99 109 111 111 131
Beverly Ctr.-M.M.  58  66  75  74  91  92
Beverly Hills      96 115 103 117 118 124
B.Hills P.O.      127 126 124 136 142 137
Beverlywood Vic.   31  34  36  41  50  57
Brentwood         102 115 113 129 137 127
Cheviot-R.Park '8' 21  18  20  28  27  34
Culver City        30  36  35  36  39  39
Malibu            209 215 211 226 231 242
Malibu Beach       75  70  72  76  72  84
Marina Del Rey     27  31  26  28  27  25
Pacific Palisades 106 107 122 148 148 134
Palms-Mar Vista    58  65  67  88  91  77
Playa Del Rey      14  13  17  25  23  23
Playa Vista         4   3   4   4   4   5
Santa Monica       68  74  79  87  88  81
Sunset-Hwd.Hills  214 228 231 246 259 267
Topanga            53  66  69  71  71  68
Venice             61  66  80  75  81  90
W.Hollywood Vic.   37  36  25  32  36  42
West L.A.          12  17  21  21  23  26
Westchester        49  47  48  56  58  70
Westwood-Cent.City 42  44  58  55  71  63
                  ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ 

2010 Totals      1585    1745    1998
                     1691    1910    2038
2009 Totals      2027    2281    2196    2233    2034    1827
                     2205    2262    2160    2133    1979    1486
2008 Totals      1509    1694    1917    2019    2006    2128
                     1524    1846    1974    1942    2085    1822
2007 Totals      1282    1274    1457    1522    1671    1600
                     1308    1377    1483    1551    1731    1329

See 2007, 2008, and 2009 monthly totals. Santa Monica here omits Santa Monica Canyon (in City of Los Angeles but S.M. Post Office).

S&P/Case-Shiller (April) and DataQuick (May)

2010-06-30T09:28:00.000-07:00

Yesterday's April 2010 S&P/Case-Shiller was overall pretty flat trend for both Los Angeles and the 10-city Composite.

Overall Los Angeles (including Orange County) was up 0.68% from March, after being down 0.70% from February and 0.67% from January, (compared with up 0.92% from December, 0.99% from November, 0.77% from October, 0.30% from September, 0.85% from August, and 1.6% from July), now down 37.3% from its September 2006 peak, at November 2003 levels. The national (orange line, their original 10-city Composite) index is down 30.5% from its peak in June 2006.

The Low, Middle, and High tiers are again available and graphed; the high tier was almost exactly flat for the month (up a whole 0.01%). The left column on the chart is peak to bottom; the right is peak to current month.

The DataQuick numbers for May show three of the four counties up for the month, but more from sales of higher-priced houses than price increases:

The median price paid topped $300,000 for the first time in 20 months, largely because the ultra bargains have been drying up in the low-cost inland areas while sales have increased in the pricier coastal neighborhoods....

Los Angeles County's median was at $345K, down 37.3% from its peak in August 2007. For what it's worth (given the changing mix), that left Los Angeles County at December 2003, Orange County prices at January 2004, Ventura County at May 2003, and San Diego County at August 2002.

Finally, here is the updated Los Angeles Case-Shiller index scaled with the Los Angeles DataQuick median price history (normalized Case-Shiller's January 2000 = 100). The Case-Shiller data is a month older and a three-month average.

In general prices continue pretty flat since mid-2009, and likely to fall again as tax credits end, interest rates rise, and more foreclosures make it to market.

Price declines ahead ...

2010-06-23T10:43:00.000-07:00

No, I haven't disappeared, just lots else going on that makes it hard to focus on posting here. Next week I'll post updates DataQuick and S&P/Case-Shiller updates and my Santa Monica and Westside data through June. Local inventory continues to be the second-highest I've recorded, below last year's crisis levels but above 2008.

In the meantime these two items yesterday from The Big Picture and Calculated Risk (daily must-reads for me) reinforce my expectation that we're going to see another step down in the larger economy and local real estate prices during the second half of this year.

Existing Home Sales Slide 2.2%

We see more evidence that next leg down in Housing has begun, ...

We haven’t looked at the usual idiotic blatherings from the National Association of Realtors in quite some time. For shits and giggles, let’s have a gander at their latest, to see if they are still maintaining their traditional high standards of alcohol consumption.

Ahhh, the Realtor crowd rarely disappoints. The Headline — “May Shows a Continued Strong Pace for Existing-Home Sales” — reveals their inability to separate facts from wishful thinking. ...

Let’s ignore their usual foolishness, and go straight for the data: ...

How high will Existing Home Months-of-Supply increase this summer?

Earlier I posted a graph showing the relationship of existing home months-of-supply to house prices. When months-of-supply is below 6 months, house prices are typically rising - and above 6 months-of-supply, house prices are usually falling (this isn't perfect, but it is a general guide). ...

The peak for months-of-supply was 11.2 months in 2008. And house prices? The Case-Shiller composite 20 index fell 17.2% in 2008.

We are much closer to the price bottom now than in 2008, and I don't expect that severe of a price decline. But I do expect house prices to fall in the 2nd half of 2010 and into 2011 - probably another 5% to 10% for the major house price indexes (Case-Shiller and CoreLogic). ...

Financial Reform commercial

2010-04-28T09:25:00.000-07:00

Barry Ritholtz's The Big Picture blog this morning features the brilliant "A Financial Reform Commercial I Want To See" (copy and email to your senators and congressmember!):

Here is a commercial I want to see someone create, that I’d like to see go viral:

The screen is dark. There is a soft heartbeat in the background

White letters appear on the screen: 1998 Glass Steagall Repeal

Voiceover: In 1998, the Glass Steagall act was repealed by Congress. Since 1932, it successfully kept banks separated from Wall Street (pause) . . . After its repeal?

(Citigroup, Countrywide, and Washington Mutual logos on screen. They shatter and collapse).

Voiceover: Major banks collapsed, causing the worse recession in generations and costing taxpayers billions.
(Heartbeat gets a little louder and quicker).

White letters Commodity Future Modernization Act of 2000

Voiceover: In 2000, Congress passed the Commodity Future Modernization Act. It made one group of financial instruments — Derivatives — completely free from all regulation (pause) . . . The result?

(AIG logo appears, explodes)

Voiceover: The AIG collapse cost taxpayers $185 billion in bailouts.
(Heartbeat is now louder and faster).

Letters: 2004 SEC permits Wall Street to dramatically increase its leverage

Voiceover: In 2004, the 5 biggest investment houses in the country got permission to lever up (pause) . . . The result?

(Logos appear; Bear Stearns, Lehman blow up; Merrill Lynch turns gray and keels over; Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley spiderweb crack — but don’t fall)

Voiceover: Lehman & Bear — gone. Taxpayers spent billions helping Bank America rescue Merrill Lynch. Goldman and Morgan became bank holding companies.
(Heartbeat is very rapid and loud).

More white letters: 2010 Financial Reform legislation . . . is . . . blocked

(heartbeat stops . . . screen fades to white light)

Voiceover: Partisan fighting in Congress is blocking financial reform . . . but YOU can help move it forward. (heartbeat starts again) Tell your congressman and senator to stop listening to Wall St lobbyists, and pass financial reform NOW.

Because the last thing any of us wants is another financial heart attack.

Lettering: Please pass financial reform . . . or else.

(heartbeat stops, letter replaced with flatlined EKG)

Lettering: Call your congressman today (phone number)

S&P/Case-Shiller and DataQuick (April)

2010-04-27T22:42:00.000-07:00

Today's February 2010 S&P/Case-Shiller turned down slightly for Los Angeles and continued down for the 10-city Composite.

Overall Los Angeles (including Orange County) was down 0.67% from January (compared with up 0.92% from December, 0.99% from November, 0.77% from October, 0.30% from September, 0.85% from August, and 1.6% from July), now down 37.3% from its September 2006 peak, at November 2003 levels. The national (orange line, their original 10-city Composite) index is down 30.7% from its peak in June 2006.

The Low, Middle, and High tiers are no longer available without registration and were last reported here with the August update. The left column on the chart is peak to bottom; the right is peak to current month.

In contrast, the DataQuick numbers for March show all four counties were up for the month after previous monthly drops. This seems likely due to the expiring federal tax credit.

Los Angeles County's median was back to $329K, down 40.2% from its peak in August 2007. Volumes were up 13% year-to-year from March 2009.

That left Los Angeles County and Orange County prices at July 2003, Ventura County at April 2003, and San Diego County at July 2002.

Finally, here is the updated Los Angeles Case-Shiller index scaled with the Los Angeles DataQuick median price history (normalized Case-Shiller's January 2000 = 100). The Case-Shiller data is a month older and a three-month average.

In general prices look pretty flat since mid-2009, and likely to fall again as tax credits end, interest rates rise, and more foreclosures make it to market.

S&P/Case-Shiller and DataQuick (March)

2010-04-05T13:28:00.000-07:00

Due to popular demand I'll catch up with the S&P/Case-Shiller and DataQuick numbers released last month. The January 2010 S&P/Case-Shiller was again up slightly for Los Angeles but down for the 10-city Composite.

Overall Los Angeles (including Orange County) was up 0.92% from December (compared with 0.99% from November, 0.77% from October, 0.30% from September, 0.85% from August, and 1.6% from July), now down 36.9% from its September 2006 peak, at December 2003 levels. The national (orange line, their original 10-city Composite) index is down 30.2% from its peak in June 2006.

The Low, Middle, and High tiers are no longer available without registration and were last reported here with the August update. The left column on the chart is peak to bottom; the right is peak to current month.

In contrast, the DataQuick February numbers for February show all but San Diego County were down for the month again.

Los Angeles County's median was back to $325K, down 42.7% from its peak in August 2007. Volumes were up 10% year-to-year from February 2009.

That left Los Angeles County and Orange County prices at June 2003, Ventura County at February 2003, and San Diego County at June 2002.

Finally, here is the updated Los Angeles Case-Shiller index scaled with the Los Angeles DataQuick median price history (normalized Case-Shiller's January 2000 = 100). The Case-Shiller data is a month older and a three-month average. Is DataQuick the better indicator of a falling trend here, or is it too affected by sales mix?

March Inventory, Sold, New

2010-04-04T22:42:00.000-07:00

Like January and February, Santa Monica inventory below $3M and Westside overall inventory is running a little higher for March than two years ago (2008), but below last year's high financial-meltdown levels. Santa Monica >$3M is a bit lower. See the bottom for the breakdown of the Westside totals.

Santa Monica <$3M sales are also similar to 2008. New listings (that don't include relistings) are at a typical level. Conversely >$3M sales have been moribund (1 in January, 0 in February, 0 in March, although 4 are in escrow), and new listings (again excluding relistings) are the lowest in four years.

All Westside

                 1/29     4/2    5/28    7/30    10/1   11/26
                     2/26    4/30     7/2    8/27   10/29   12/31 

Bel Air-Holmby H.  91  99 109
Beverly Ctr.-M.M.  58  66  75
Beverly Hills      96 115 103
B.Hills P.O.      127 126 124
Beverlywood Vic.   31  34  36
Brentwood         102 115 113
Cheviot-R.Park '8' 21  18  20
Culver City        30  36  35
Malibu            209 215 211
Malibu Beach       75  70  72
Marina Del Rey     27  31  26
Pacific Palisades 106 107 122
Palms-Mar Vista    58  65  67
Playa Del Rey      14  13  17
Playa Vista         4   3   4
Santa Monica       68  74  79
Sunset-Hwd.Hills  214 228 231
Topanga            53  66  69
Venice             61  66  80
W.Hollywood Vic.   37  36  25
West L.A.          12  17  21
Westchester        49  47  48
Westwood-Cent.City 42  44  58
                  ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ 

2010 Totals      1585    1745
                     1691
2009 Totals      2027    2281    2196    2233    2034    1827
                     2205    2262    2160    2133    1979    1486
2008 Totals      1509    1694    1917    2019    2006    2128
                     1524    1846    1974    1942    2085    1822
2007 Totals      1282    1274    1457    1522    1671    1600
                     1308    1377    1483    1551    1731    1329

See 2007, 2008, and 2009 monthly totals. Santa Monica here omits Santa Monica Canyon (in City of Los Angeles but S.M. Post Office).

90402 sales Sep-Feb

2010-03-23T12:06:00.000-07:00

Finally ... drum roll please ... here are the North of Montana sales for September 2009-February 2010. Seven houses sold for less than $1,650K, all the way down to $1,294K for the 3 bed / 1 bath house at 723 11th Street, next door to the parking lot behind Montana shops.

As before, these are in order of final asking price, with decreases over 10% and listing dates before 2009 colored red. Many of the sales over $2 million took substantial price decreases, and buyers got a lot more house for between $2 and $3 million than they did at the bubble's peak.

Address, bed/bath, current price (-% from orig.), orig.list date, sale date, sale price (-% from last list price)

Less than $2M

723 11th, 3/1, $1,300K, 12/3/09, 12/11/09, $1,294K (-0%)
717 11th, 3/2, $1,525K (+2%), 7/1/09, 1/22/10, $1,452K (-5%)
209 25th, 3/2.5, $1,649K (-19%), 10/7/08, 10/8/09, $1,525K (-8%)
444 9th, 3/1, $1,685K, 11/5/09, 12/22/09, $1,585K (-6%)
714 Euclid (photo), 4/3, $1,699K (-6%), 6/10/09, 9/2/09, $1,600K (-6%)
626 11th, 3/2, $1,720K, 9/17/09, 11/20/09, $1,600K (-7%)
747 23rd, 2/2, $1,749K (-3%), 7/15/09, 9/29/09, $1,645K (-6%)
409 16th, 4/2, $1,850K, 10/28/09, 1/15/10, $1,635K (-12%)
408 20th, 2/2, $1,875K, 11/12/09, 12/22/09, $1,815K (-3%)
612 17th, 3/2, $1,895K, 11/25/09, 2/3/10, $1,815K (-4%)
231 18th, 3/1.75, $1,994K, 8/20/09, 9/23/09, $1,968K (-1%)
339 Adelaide, 3/2.5, $1,995K, 4/24/09, 11/19/09, $1,885K (-6%)
464 20th, 3/2, $1,995K (-9%), 4/2/09, 10/6/09, $1,888K (-5%)
340 21st Pl, 3/1, $1,995K (-5%), 7/22/09, 9/29/09, $1,810K (-9%)

Over $2M

2009 Montana, 5/6.5, $1,988K (-29%), 3/4/09, 10/28/09, $2,010K (+1%)
721 19th, 5/3, $2,050K, 9/14/09, 11/23/09, $2,149K (+5%)
1303 Georgina, 4/3, $2,175K (-16%), 5/27/09, 12/15/09, $2,109K (-3%)
410 23rd, 4/4, $2,495K, 10/5/09, 11/10/09, $2,415K (-3%)
472 23rd, 4/2, $2,650K, 7/10/09, 10/14/09, $2,250K (-15%)
215 24th, 4/3.5, $2,725K, 8/27/09, 9/30/09, $2,650K (-3%)
715 23rd, 5/5.5, $2,788K (-15%), 2/12/09, 10/20/09, $2,550K (-9%)
415 Palisades, 5/4.5, $2,795K, 7/23/09, 9/3/09, $2,668K (-5%)
703 12th, 4/4.5, $2,795K, 10/29/09, 1/15/10, $2,795K
553 12th, 5/4.5, $2,895K (-17%), 1/26/09, 9/2/09, $2,725K (-6%)
632 11th, 5/5.5, $3,250K, 7/17/09, 9/28/09, $3,150K (-3%)
428 21st Pl, 5/4.5, $3,449K (-4%), 6/15/09, 11/11/09, $3,250K (-6%)
739 23rd, 5/4, $3,495K (-19%), 6/4/08, 9/18/09, $3,200K (-8%)
226 17th, 5/5.5, $3,695K, 8/18/09, 9/30/09, $3,395K (-8%)
507 Palisades, 5/4.5, $6,995K, 5/28/09, 11/12/09, $5,951K (-15%)

90403-90404 sales Sep-Feb

2010-03-14T23:04:00.000-07:00

Third up are single-family house sales closed from September 2009 through February 2010 in 90403 (Montana-Wilshire) and 90404 (Wilshire-Pico), including three of our five Stewart Park listings from last November.

Also, note that due to spam comments to old posts I've started moderating comments to posts over 14 days old.

Address, bed/bath, current price (-% from orig.), orig.list date, sale date, sale price (-% from last list price)

90403

1130 Idaho, 1/1, $769K, 10/30/09, 12/11/09, $805K ( +5%)
610 California, 2/1, $999K, 3/20/09, 12/3/09, $580K (-42%)
825 26th, 3/2, $1,199K, 7/14/09, 9/8/09, $1,245K (+4%)
1027 Chelsea, 4/3, $1,449K, 9/21/09, 11/12/09, $1,600K (+10%)
1015 24th, 4/3, $1,599K, 10/22/09, 12/23/09, $1,558K (-3%)
1066 Yale, 5/2.75, $1,795K (-25%), 9/22/08, 9/25/09, $1,600K (-11%)
2222 Washington, 4/3, $2,395K (-8%), 6/4/09, 10/13/09, $2,236K (-7%)
1122 Stanford, 6/7.5, $3,395K (-5%), 8/28/09, 1/5/10, $2,875K (-15%)
1335 Palisades Beach, 5/4.5, $5,795K (-9%), 5/12/08, 9/17/09, $5,500K (-5%)

90404

3218 Arizona, 1/1, $439K (-33%), 6/20/08, 11/25/09, $438K
1617 Berkeley, 2/1, $685K, 12/2/09, 2/17/10, $665K (-3%)
3208 Urban, 2/1, $769K (-7%), 8/5/09, 1/8/10, $720K (-6%)
1244 14th, 2/1, $775K, 9/2/09, 10/16/09, $790K (+2%)
2944 Exposition, 2/1.5, $849K, 10/2/09, 11/24/09, $815K (-4%)
3064 Delaware (photo), 3/1.5, $850K (-2%), 11/21/09, 2/22/10, $795K (-6%)
1437 24th, 3/2, $899K, 10/22/09, 12/2/09, $775K (-14%)
3020 Delaware, 3/2, $949K (-3%), 8/6/09, 2/4/10, $930K (-2%)

Ocean Park 90405 sales Sep-Feb

2010-03-02T11:51:00.000-08:00

Here's Ocean Park (the part of 90405 that's west of Lincoln, south of Pico), part two of Santa Monica sales from September 2009 through February 2010.

The photo is 2327 5th Street, originally listed 7/13/07 for $1,600K, finally sold 2/1/10 for $1,000K, one of two Ancient Listings from 2007 that finally sold after major price reductions.

Address, bed/bath, current price (-% from orig.), orig.list date, sale date, sale price (-% from last list price)

606 Marine, 2/2, $675K (-10%), 6/2/09, 10/17/09, $650K (-4%)
2525 6th, 2/1, $682K, 12/29/09, 2/17/10, $736K (+8%)
740 Navy, 2/1, $688K, 6/22/09, 9/4/09, $656K (-5%)
604 Marine, 1/1, $699K (-3%), 2/11/09, 1/18/10, $680K (-3%)
2512 4th, 2/1, $739K (-6%), 11/19/09, 2/19/10, $720K (-3%)
2728 2nd, 2/1, $750K (-6%), 9/29/09, 1/6/10, $650K (-13%)
2726 2nd, 2/1, $799K, 9/29/09, 12/1/09, $700K (-12%)
2327 5th (photo), 2/1, $1,149K (-28%), 7/13/07, 2/1/10, $1,000K (-13%)

654 Hill, 3/2, $1,395K, 11/12/09, 2/8/09, $1,260K (-10%)
415 Marine, 3/2, $1,398K (-6%), 8/19/09, 12/8/09, $1,332K (-5%)
134 Hart, 2/1, $1,398K (-18%), 1/15/09, 9/24/09, $1,398K
2323 5th, 4/3, $1,450K (-31%), 2/5/09, 11/23/09, $1,375K (-5%)
2725 6th, 4/2, $1,550K (-9%), 9/23/09, 12/29/09, $1,450K (-6%)
150 Fraser, 2/2, $1,795K (-28%), 10/4/07, 1/14/10, $1,695K (-6%)

Sunset Park 90405 sales Sep-Feb

2010-02-28T23:40:00.000-08:00

Catching up with six months of Santa Monica sales records, this post will begin with Sunset Park sales from September 2009 to February 2010. (I'll save everyone's favorite - 90402 - for last.) They're in order of final listing price, broken at $1 million. Decreases over 10% and listing dates before 2009 are colored red; but you see that most sellers priced more reasonably and sold in not too long.

I'll highlight the 2 bed / 1 bath 940 SF house on a 6,000 SF lot at 2405 29th St. as the lowest-priced not-awful condition or location house sold in Sunset Park. Listed 10/15/09 for $849K, reduced twice to $759K, and sold 2/25/10 for $680K, it's a tiny house on a 40-foot lot, but under $700K.

"PRICE REDUCED $90,000! A SANTA MONICA TRADITIONAL PERFECT FOR THE FIRST TIME HOME BUYER WITH PLENTY OF ROOM TO GROW! SITUATED IN THE GRANT ELEMENTARY SCHOOL DISTRICT. CLOSE TO ALL THE SHOPS, CAFES AND RESTAURANTS."

Address, bed/bath, current price (-% from orig.), orig.list date, sale date, sale price (-% from last list price)

819 Pier, 2/1, $550K (-49%), 5/9/08, 12/18/09, $560K (+2%)
2524 Cloverfield, 2/1, $699K, 9/10/09, 11/17/09, $695K (-1%)
1108 Ocean Park, 3/2, $746K (-25%), 2/23/09, 11/24/09, $727K (-3%)
2405 29th (photo), 2/1, $759K (-11%), 10/15/09, 2/25/10, $680K (-10%)
2312 27th, 3/2, $800K, 10/30/09, 12/4/09, $913K (+14%)
2002 Ashland, 2/1, $849K, 8/3/09, 9/25/09, $828K (-2%)
2350 Pier, 3/1.75, $849K, 10/27/09, 12/11/09, $890K (+5%)
1733 Sunset, 3/2, $888K, 11/12/09, 1/7/10, $901K (+1%)
1325 Grant, 3/2, $889K (-6%), 2/5/09, 9/9/09, $802K (-10%)
2212 Pier, 3/2, $945K (-16%), 4/30/09, 10/8/09, $850K (-10%)
3031 16th, 4/2, $949K, 9/20/09, 11/5/09, $928K (-2%)
2251 26th, 3/2, $989K, 9/9/09, 10/16/09, $979K (-1%)
1601 Marine, 3/2, $999K (-13%), 3/18/09, 11/5/09, $950K (-5%)
2423 31st, 3/2, $1,047K (-4%), 8/18/09, 11/25/09, $985K (-6%)
1003 Pier, 3/2, $1,050 (-9%), 6/10/09, 11/25/09, $915K (-13%)

1629 Wellesley, 3/1.75, $1,039K (-5%), 5/6/09, 9/15/09, $1,025K (-1%)
1225 Grant, 3/2, $1,046K (-25%), 4/3/08, 9/9/09, $1,040K (-1%)
812 Ashland, 3/2, $1,100K, 8/17/09, 10/27/09, $1,100K
1337 Sunset, 3/2.5, $1,150K (-11%), 6/22/09, 10/20/09, $1,060K (-8%)
2452 21st, 4/3, $1,175K (-6%), 9/16/09, 11/12/09, $1,110K (-6%)
2111 Pearl, 4/3, $1,189K, 7/29/09, 9/15/09, $1,250K (+5%)
3019 Linda, 2/2, $1,249K (-7%), 8/19/09, 11/30/09, $1,249K
2254 21st, 3/2.5, $1,250K, 9/3/09, 12/17/09, $1,088K (-13%)
1309 Cedar, 3/2, $1,279K, 8/8/09, 10/28/09, $1,250K (-2%)
2602 25th, 4/2, $1,348K, 8/27/09, 10/9/09, $1,325K (-2%)
1745 Wellesley, 4/3, $1,395K (-18%), 5/28/09, 12/17/09, $1,350K (-3%)
1710 Ashland, 3/3, $1,395K (-14%), 7/15/08, 1/26/10, $1,383K (-1%)
2208 Ashland, 2/2, $1,399K (-3%), 2/4/09, 9/28/09, $1,380K (-1%)
1208 Pacific, 3/1.75, $1,429K, 7/10/09, 9/8/09, $1,375K (-4%)
1352 Hill, 3/3, $1,495K (-6%), 5/1/09, 10/13/09, $1,425K (-5%)
2272 26th, 4/4, $1,499K (-20%), 10/29/09, 2/17/10, $1,435K (-4%)
1611 Sunset, 3/3, $1,699K (-21%), 1/30/08, 9/18/09, $1,605K (-6%)
1024 Pine, 5/3, $1,850K (-5%), 4/30/09, 9/1/09, $1,750K (-5%)
2330 21st, 5/3, $1,950K, 7/18/09, 9/12/09, $1,850K (-5%)

February Inventory, Sold, New

2010-02-27T18:57:00.000-08:00

Like January, Santa Monica inventory below $3M and Westside overall inventory is running a higher than two years ago (2008), but below last year's high financial-meltdown levels. Santa Monica >$3M is a bit lower. See the bottom for the breakdown of the Westside totals.

Santa Monica <$3M sales are similar to 2008, but new listings (that don't include relistings) are at record levels. Conversely >$3M sales are moribund (1 in January, 0 in February), and new listings (again excluding relistings) are the lowest in four years.

All Westside

                 1/29     4/2    5/28    7/30    10/1   11/26
                     2/26    4/30     7/2    8/27   10/29   12/31 

Bel Air-Holmby H.  91  99
Beverly Ctr.-M.M.  58  66
Beverly Hills      96 115
B.Hills P.O.      127 126
Beverlywood Vic.   31  34
Brentwood         102 115
Cheviot-R.Park '8' 21  18
Culver City        30  36
Malibu            209 215
Malibu Beach       75  70
Marina Del Rey     27  31
Pacific Palisades 106 107
Palms-Mar Vista    58  65
Playa Del Rey      14  13
Playa Vista         4   3
Santa Monica       68  74
Sunset-Hwd.Hills  214 228
Topanga            53  66
Venice             61  66
W.Hollywood Vic.   37  36
West L.A.          12  17
Westchester        49  47
Westwood-Cent.City 42  44
                  ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ 

2010 Totals      1585
                     1691
2009 Totals      2027    2281    2196    2233    2034    1827
                     2205    2262    2160    2133    1979    1486
2008 Totals      1509    1694    1917    2019    2006    2128
                     1524    1846    1974    1942    2085    1822
2007 Totals      1282    1274    1457    1522    1671    1600
                     1308    1377    1483    1551    1731    1329

See 2007, 2008, and 2009 monthly totals. Santa Monica here omits Santa Monica Canyon (in City of Los Angeles but S.M. Post Office).

S&P/Case-Shiller and DataQuick

2010-02-24T10:48:00.000-08:00

Yesterday's December 2009 S&P/Case-Shiller the uptick was up slightly for Los Angeles but turned down for the 10-city Composite. Overall Los Angeles (including Orange County) was up 0.99% from November (compared with 0.77% from October, 0.30% from September, 0.85% from August, and 1.6% from July), now down 37.4% from its September 2006 peak, at November 2003 levels. The national (orange line, their original 10-city Composite) index is down 30.1% from its peak in June 2006.

The Low, Middle, and High tiers are no longer available without registration and were last reported here with the August update. The left column on the chart is peak to bottom; the right is peak to current month.

Following are the DataQuick numbers for January from earlier this month, showing that all but Ventura County's (which was flat) median prices were down for the month.

Los Angeles County's median was back to $325K, down 40.9% from its peak in August 2007. Volumes were up 15% year-to-year from January 2009. (December DataQuick post)

That left Los Angeles County and Orange County prices at July 2003, Ventura County at March 2003, and San Diego County at April 2002.

Finally, here is the updated Los Angeles Case-Shiller index scaled with the Los Angeles DataQuick median price history (normalized Case-Shiller's January 2000 = 100).

January Inventory, Sold, New

2010-01-30T20:37:00.000-08:00

I've changed the charts for 2010 from the 2009 Inventory and New, Sold, and Widthrawn/Expired charts. I stopped tracking individual listings in Pacific Palisades and Palms-Mar Vista, and the Santa Monica Withdrawn/Expired numbers, although dramatic last year, have served their purpose. So I'm continuing with Santa Monica and total Westside Inventory, and Sold and New listings for Santa Monica, in this new wider format.

In summary, Inventory is up as usual after the end-of-year low, looking more like January 2008 than 2009's economic meltdown. But Santa Monica over $3M is weaker than the past few years.

November S&P/Case-Shiller

2010-01-30T20:05:00.000-08:00

Catching up with Tuesday's Novermber 2009 S&P/Case-Shiller the uptick was up slightly again, but doesn't appear to be a rising trend. Overall Los Angeles (including Orange County) was up 0.77% from October (compared with 0.30% from September, 0.85% from August, and 1.6% from July), now down 38.0% from its September 2006 peak, at October 2003 levels. The national (orange line, their original 10-city Composite) index is down 30.0% from its peak in June 2006.

The Low, Middle, and High tiers are no longer available without registration and were last reported here with the August update. The left column on the chart is peak to bottom; the right is peak to current month.

December DataQuick

2010-01-19T12:47:00.000-08:00

Today's DataQuick numbers for December ranged from a small uptick for Los Angeles to a small downtick for Ventura County, overall with little direction.

Los Angeles County's median was $339K, now down 38.4% from its peak in August 2007. Volumes were up 31% year-to-year from December 2008. (October DataQuick post)

That left Los Angeles County prices at August 2003, Orange County at August 2003, Ventura County at March 2003, and San Diego County at July 2002.

New, Sold, and Withdrawn/Expired listings

2010-01-01T23:44:00.000-08:00

Sales and new listings have been stronger the latter part of 2009 than the preceeding year or two for lower-priced listings in Santa Monica, Pacific Palisades, and Palms-Mar Vista. But note how high-end Santa Monica collapsed - nothing over $3M sold or was listed in December, and the last few months were nearly as weak.

2009 year-end Inventory charts

2010-01-01T23:37:00.000-08:00

Inventory at the end of 2009 is at its usual low point for the year and a bit lower than this time last year - although that was unusually high with the economic meltdown. High-end Santa Monica is especially down, although we'll see in the next set of charts everything about that is down.

2009 Inventory wrap-up

2010-01-01T23:31:00.000-08:00

      LA County  Santa Monica Pacific Palisades  Mar Vista
               <$3M New Tot DOM<$2M New Tot DOM Tot New DOM
- -------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
J  1/30/06 27,732
F  2/28/06 29,420
M  3/31/06 31,819
A  5/ 1/06 34,032  38  33
M  6/ 2/06 37,847  56  36  38
J  6/30/06 42,317  66  40  49
J  8/ 4/06 45,315  70  34  50
A  9/ 1/06 46,781  71  27  59
S 10/ 6/06 47,369  83  25  98  71
O 11/ 3/06 45,780  80  20  91  77
N 12/ 1/06 43,103  65  18  72  96  39  20
D  1/ 5/07 35,646  54   4  60 117  33   6  71  66
- -------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
J  2/ 2/07 36,715  38  15  45 124  29  16  61  71  70
F  3/ 2/07 41,251  42  14  51 114  26  10  68  79  55  25  76
M  4/ 6/07 42,857  41  23  49 107  18   8  73 103  54  52  50
A  5/ 4/07 45,918  46  28  54  92  19   6  82  79  71  37  52
M  6/ 1/07 52,198  50  25  61  78  17  15  87  78  77  39  53
J  6/30/07 52,769  42  18  56  81  17  11  92  77  74  33  61
J  8/ 3/07 54,166  53  28  68  86  23  12  78  76  84  39  68
A  8/31/07 57,432  57  21  72  98  18   7  69  75  90  40  79
S  9/28/07 58,973  59  17  74 103  26   9  90  81  87  20  87
O 11/ 2/07 58,731  62  19  81 120  29   7 106  77  98  35  88
N 11/30/07 59,108  52  14  67 136  23  11  88  94  96  23  96
D 12/31/07 53,475  42   5  53 148  19   2  73 119  79  13 116
- -------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
J  2/ 1/08 53,722  54  16  67 157  26  16 101 118  89  36  96
F  2/29/08 53,520  50  10  68 178  29   8 108 108  88  21 103
M  3/28/08 53,566  57  17  81 171  32  14 122  92  82  22 105
A  5/ 2/08 54,098  59  14  83 159  35   7 136  93  90  33  96
M  5/30/08 53,216  56  23  79 147  34   9 142 106  91  29  89
J  6/27/08 53,058  74  28  98 131  30   6 129 107  96  26  95
J  8/ 2/08 51,906  66  14  89 125  34   8 120 136  99  35 101
A  8/29/08 50,124  62   9  79 122  29   5 108 156  91  25 104
S 10/ 3/08 48,113  58  14  82 145  41  15 128 132  84  24 109
O 10/31/08 47,017  64  22  90 131  55  18 159 126  83  21 103
N 11/28/08 45,216  64  12  91 141  54   7 151 124  73   9 130
D 12/31/08 40,810  52   3  80 171  47   5 130 134  63  10 144
- -------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
J  1/30/09 38,486  67  16  94 181  59  15 157 145  66  15 157
F  2/27/09 37,647  73  14  98 164  73  17 181 148  75  19 131
M  4/ 3/09         84  25 108 155  73  11 187 150  74  24 128
A  5/ 1/09         89  23 115 163  72  11 188 155  73  22 127
M  5/29/09         80  15 107 175  67  14 176 142  70  28 117
J  7/ 3/09         85  21 110 142  63  16 167 164  75  19 157
J  7/31/09         83  20 105 163  62   8 164 171  71  22 152
A  8/28/09         73  14  94 204  64  11 164 170  74  21 145
S 10/ 2/09         68  21  81 194  56   6 161 176  61  20 127
O 10/30/09         72  18  84 215  47   8 145 201  61  21 166
N 11/27/09         54  12  62 226  46  10 128 201  63  20 184
D 12/31/09         43   6  49 274  38   4 101 203  46   4 210

All Westside

                 1/30     4/3    5/29    7/31    10/2   11/27
                     2/27     5/1     7/3    8/28   10/30   12/31 
Bel Air-Holmby H. 101 106 120 137 147 152 160 150 136 123 117  95
Beverly Ctr.-M.M.  58  65  78  83  72  58  73  78  73  72  60  46
Beverly Hills     109 123 134 114 107 120 135 127 112 124 111  96
B.Hills P.O.      127 147 162 153 152 159 160 160 154 162 151 123
Beverlywood Vic.   47  54  62  60  48  42  51  45  51  45  44  29
Brentwood         146 162 157 167 155 155 146 128 136 126 122  93
Cheviot-R.Park '8' 31  38  33  39  31  31  39  33  32  23  21  18
Culver City        52  44  36  33  34  41  39  26  27  36  27  21
Malibu            254 267 288 290 281 280 274 263 260 265 254 210
Malibu Beach       63  70  70  70  69  65  62  67  70  76  76  66
Marina Del Rey     32  32  28  34  34  35  30  25  25  24  24  21
Pacific Palisades 157 181 187 188 176 167 164 164 161 145 128 101
Palms-Mar Vista    66  75  74  73  70  75  71  74  61  61  63  46
Playa Del Rey      24  24  20  21  27  22  22  19  24  21  19  15
Playa Vista         6   6   5   3   5   4   5   6   9   8   7   6
Santa Monica       94  98 108 115 107 110 105  94  81  84  62  49
Sunset-Hwd.Hills  285 299 312 293 294 288 305 306 292 284 259 222
Topanga            70  73  71  73  77  75  83  77  76  65  64  52
Venice            104 121 119 115 111 102 110 101  83  78  64  51
W.Hollywood Vic.   61  58  50  56  51  48  50  58  56  51  53  35
West L.A.          20  30  32  25  23  17  22  27  21  24  18  13
Westchester        53  60  57  42  43  47  56  46  47  40  44  41
Westwood-Cent.City 67  72  78  78  82  67  71  59  47  42  39  37
                  ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ 
2009 Total       2027    2281    2196    2233    2034    1827
                     2205    2262    2160    2133    1979    1486
2008 Total       1509    1694    1917    2019    2006    2128
                     1524    1846    1974    1942    2085    1822
2007 Total       1282    1274    1457    1522    1671    1600
                     1308    1377    1483    1551    1731    1329

Notes

See 2007 and 2008 monthly totals. LA County inventory via OC Renter. Santa Monica Days on Market (DOM) is for <$3M, and omits Santa Monica Canyon (in City of Los Angeles but S.M. Post Office). Pacific Palisades DOM is for <$2M and count omits mobile homes. "New" is for previous month, or month-to-date for current partial month.

October S&P/Case-Shiller

2009-12-30T14:54:00.000-08:00

Yeah, I know, pretty little posting here lately because I've been way busy. But after 2009 ends tomorrow I'll do year-end charts and sales detail to bring things up to date.

In yesterday's October 2009 S&P/Case-Shiller the uptick flattened even more. Overall Los Angeles (including Orange County) was up only 0.30% from September (compared with 0.85% from August and 1.6% from July), now down 38.5% from its September 2006 peak, at October 2003 levels. The national (orange line, their original 10-city Composite) index is down 29.8% from its peak in June 2006.

As I noted last month, the Low, Middle, and High tiers are no longer available without registration and were last reported here with the August update. The left column on the chart is peak to bottom; the right is peak to current month.

Finally, here is the updated Los Angeles Case-Shiller index scaled with the Los Angeles DataQuick median price history (normalized Case-Shiller's January 2000 = 100).

New low north of Montana

2009-12-08T22:40:00.000-08:00

Here's a new low in prices north of Montana. Yes, it is next to the parking lot behind the corner businesses at 11th and Montana, and the interior photos are definitely "before," but this 3 bed / 1 bath 1,559 SF house at 723 11th St. is only asking $1,300K! So far no takers in the 5 days since it was listed 12/3/09.

"Least expensive R-1 zoned 7,500 sq. ft. lot plus 3 bedroom house, North of Montana. Yes, it is adjacent to a public parking lot, but there is plenty of light and breeze because of this. There is a large entry hall and dining area that help this home be used for entertaining. Expand and remodel this house or rebuild. Opportunity to be North of Montana."

Five listings on one block!

2009-11-24T21:30:00.000-08:00

Since I posted about the Glut in Stewart Park back on September 10 it's only gotten worse. Although the house on Urban is Looking for Backup, Kansas was withdrawn, and two more have joined the three on the block of Delaware-Warwick. That's five for sale on one block! Which one will cut their price $100K or so to finally sell?

A good starting point is the only 2-story house, the 3 bed / 2 bath 1,754 SF house on a standard 6,500 SF lot at 3020 Delaware Ave., listed 8/6/09 for $975K, reduced in early October to $949K. It's a nice house, but impacted by the freeway a block away and not selling at this price.

"Restored two story traditional with contemporary style. The home is flooded with natural light complimenting the hardwood floors. The bedrooms are generously sized adding to the airy, bright and crisp aesthetic. The home lends itself to indoor/outdoor entertaining with a lush, well landscaped and private yard. Complete with detached artist's studio, spa, and sauna."

Around the corner is the 3 bed / 2 bath 1,229 SF house on a smaller 5,528 SF lot next to the alley at 1912 Warwick Ave. After its first listing was cancelled after 2 months, it was relisted 11/6/09 for $961.5K. Oh, and it last sold 6/16/06 for $765K.

From the photos it looks reasonably redone, but it's still a flipper seeking a $200K gain in a declining market, when the bigger house on a bigger lot around the corner isn't selling at a lower price. Riiight.

"Open Sunday 11/29, 1-4pm:: This beautiful corner lot house is DONE. Totally remodeled in 2007: 200 Amp electric, copper plumbing, central AC/heat, landscaping, recessed lighting, refinished wood floors, crown moldings and wood burning fireplace re-faced w stacked stone. Kitchen and bathrooms are completely remodeled with granite counters, travertine/marble tiles, jetted tub and double sink. Move right in!"

The newest listing is this 3 bed / 1.5 bath 1,279 SF house on the 4,739 SF corner lot next door to Warwick at 3064 Delaware Ave., listed 11/21/09 for $865K.

"First time on the market in 49 years. Lovely home on a corner lot. Three bedrooms and one and a half baths. Room to add shower in half bath. Separate formal dining room.Living room with fireplace. Detached office/study in back yard. Large canopy in rear yard.Several fruit trees. Well maintained home. Fenced throughout. Two car garage."

Next door to the two-story house is this 3 bed / 2 bath 1,183 SF house on a 6,500 SF lot at 3014 Delaware, listed 11/11/09 for $850K.

"Bright and cozy one story traditional on a quiet tree-lined street. This warm and colorful home features an open floor plan with a generously sized kitchen, dining room and living room. Both the master suite and the kitchen open to the lush, private yard. The home also features hardwood floors throughout, a detached garage and adjacent bonus room. Close to shops on Pico."

We'll close next door to the west (yes, that's literally three in a row!) with the 2 bed / 1 bath 1,011 SF house on a 6,500 SF lot at 3008 Delaware, asking $845K (reduced from $869K), last sold 4/7/06 for $769K. Why is there no sign in front?

"Charming, recently remodeled home on a tree-lined street in beautiful and desirable Stewart Park neighborhood. Fireplace in the Living Room, separate Dining Room, Laundry Room, Hardwood & Tiled Floors throughout, completely remodeled Bathroom and Kitchen, updated Plumbing and Electrical, 2-Car Garage, ample grassy Backyard with covered Patio and Vegetable Garden. Realtors ... come show and sell this move-in ready beauty!"

September S&P/Case-Shiller

2009-11-24T12:44:00.000-08:00

In today's September 2009 S&P/Case-Shiller the uptick continued to flatten. Overall Los Angeles (including Orange County) was up 0.85% from August (compared with 1.6% from July), and is now down 38.7% from its September 2006 peak, at October 2003 levels. The national (orange line, their original 10-city Composite) index is down 29.9% from its peak in June 2006.

I've been reporting the Low, Middle, and High tiers; unfortunately those are no longer available without registration, so may not be updated going forward. I now have two columns on the chart: left is peak to bottom, right is peak to current month.

As I've been writing, I don't see this indicating a bottom on the Westside, which appears lagging the Case-Shiller for Los Angeles. My updated North of Montana Index has another year to go to hit my projection of 2003 prices in 2010, but is consistent with Case-Shiller's reversion to 2003 prices. The new 11/20/09 sale of 626 11th Street (although not on 9th-10th-12th-Euclid) was a third at $1.6M this year.

Finally, here is updated the Los Angeles Case-Shiller index scaled with the Los Angeles DataQuick median price history (normalized Case-Shiller's January 2000 = 100).

October DataQuick

2009-11-17T12:52:00.000-08:00

Tuesday's DataQuick numbers for October tipped down again for Los Angeles and Ventura Counties. Caveats aside about the mix of houses sold and seasonality (first half of years is when rises mostly occurred), there doesn't look like much strength despite the huge government push of low interest rates and tax-credit zero-down FHA loans.

Los Angeles County's median was back down month-to-month to $325K, now down 40.9% for Los Angeles County from its peak in August 2007. Volumes were up 9% year-to-year from October 2008. (September DataQuick post)

That left Los Angeles County prices at July 2003, Orange County at August 2003, Ventura County at April 2003, and San Diego County at June 2002.

See Calculated Risk for more commentary.

Palisades 2003 rollback?

2009-11-10T23:51:00.000-08:00

This Pacific Palisades 3 bed / 2 bath 2,054 SF house on a 12,600 SF lot at 1130 El Medio Ave., backing up to undeveloped hills. It was listed 10/22/09 for $1,475K. The big deal is, according to Redfin, that's 20% below its last sale on 8/25/04 for $1,850K. Anyone know details?

"Striking the perfect balance… Serenity and proximity… Ocean and mountains… Experience ocean views from the front and canyon views from the back. This 3 bedroom/2 bath upper El Medio home has been freshened up, yet offers an option for enhancement. Great floorplan, light & bright, hardwood floors, fireplace in living room, floor to ceiling windows, 2 car direct access garage. Back yard with grassy area and deck."

New north of Montana

2009-11-10T23:40:00.000-08:00

Here are two new low-end north of Montana listings. First is the 4 bed / 2 bath 1,684 SF house on a 7,500 SF lot at 409 16th Street (above, click to enlarge), listed 10/28/09 for $1,850K. Does the location this far up nice 16th Street and 4 bedrooms get this premium over our low-end $1,600K or so?

"Showings on hold until Nov. 13th. We do not have a key into the house. Wonderful North of Montana Spanish! Original details & charm intact. Sweet breakfast room off kitchen. Front-facing living room w/ wonderful picture window overlooking tree-lined street. Formal dining room. Hardwood floors. First time on the market for 50+ years. Bedroom wing was added. Oversized, detached garage. Great location on great street. In the coveted Franklin District."

Second is this 3 bed / 1 bath 1,557 SF house (red arrow, third from the corner in the aerial, no listing photo provided) at 444 9th Street, listed 11/5/09 for $1,685K. It is pretty close to 320 9th's $1,600K and 454 9th's $1,576K sales prices (the corner house on the left in the aerial photo).

"English Tudor style home north of Montana. Spacious home with 3 Bedrooms, 1 Bath, Living Room, Dining Room, Breakfast Room, Kitchen. This is a Trustee sale that does not require court approval; however offers will only be presented upon Buyer acknowledging they have received the inspection report. In addition, there is a Studio with a ¾ Bath; call listing agent for details. One car detached garage."

New, Sold, and Withdrawn/Expired listings

2009-11-09T12:49:00.000-08:00

Santa Monica sales below $3 million were strong, but there were zero over $3 million. With only 2 new Santa Monica listings over $3 million (vs. 10 in 10/08), that's a really dead market. Most other numbers don't seem dramatically off what's typical.

October inventory charts

2009-11-09T12:39:00.000-08:00

Catching up with October charts ... overall, Westside inventory is similar to this time a year ago, except for low-end Palms-Mar Vista. Santa Monica less than $3 million is higher.

Our big question is, are conditions such that prices will drop again in 2010 like they did earlier in 2009? Inventory level is a yes. Availability of jumbo loans is another yes. General economic outlook is more of a question. Dismal earlier this year, it's improved some in popular perception but hasn't changed the earlier drop in high-end prices.

Old listings back from the dead

2009-11-01T23:26:00.000-08:00

The week or two before Halloween a number of old Santa Monica listings came back from the dead.

First is 750 Navy St. (photo above), a 2 bed / 1.5 bath "~~brownstone~~" "greenstucco" originally listed 3/3/08 for a whopping $1,900K. Expired later that month, it reappeared 8/27/08 for $1,699K, then reduced to $1,499K 10/08, and withdrawn 12/9/08. We last featured it on 5/9/08. Now it's ba-ack on 10/28/09 as an REO for $979K, 48% off original list.

"REO, Newer construction Ocean Park condo alternative. Built in the last few years, reminiscent of a San Francisco rowhouse. This is not your typical run down REO. This house has just been completely "fixed" by lender. Downstairs includes an open kitch w/ new stainless steel appliances & granite counters, living/dining area & 1/2bath. Upstairs are 2 full bedrooms w/ dark wood floors & vaulted ceilings & a lrg, opulent bath w/ great soaking tub & beautiful shower. Attached 2 car garage."

Just down the street at 804 Navy (photo added) is a 3 bed / 3 bath house originally listed 8/4/08 for $1,300K. Withdrawn 10/28/08, it was relisted 11/5/08 for $1,289K, reduced three times, finally to $1,099K, and expired in 4/09. It's back as of 10/28/09 for the same $1,099K (sigh). Gee, they don't tell you about the view of Lincoln Blvd. from the rooftop deck:

"804 Navy Ave was built in 2008. each bedroom and bathroom was done with it's own intricate design. No expense was spared . Kitchen comes complete with Chef's Viking appliances, Stone counters, ceramic tile backsplash, and custom design cabinets.There are hardwood floors throughout. From the third floor walk out onto the rooftop deck perfect for entertaining, complete with BBQ, fireplace, plenty of room for seating and city views. Excellent value."

Way back on 11/28/07 we featured the 4 bed / 4 bath house at 2222 Marine (corner of 23rd below the airport, #6 on the airport impact zone map) that shouted:

"ANOTHER HUGE PRICE REDUCTION... THIS SELLER IS SERIOUS."

I wrote then, "Really? Originally listed 5/17/07 for $1,975K, reduced to $1,775K in October, we're to believe a new $50K reduction to $1,725K is HUGE and SERIOUS?"

Now here we are, nearly two years later. It left the market 12/07, was relisted 8/21/08 for $1,690K, reduced 1/09 to $1,450K, expired in July, and is now relisted a third time on 10/20/09 for $1,399K (29% off their original price), pitched as a home office:

"Great Home Office. Has 4 bedrooms, 4 Baths on 4 levels. Large corner lot. Spacious master has vaulted ceilings, wall of windows facing high nature views, huge W/I closet, fireplace, balcony & bonus room. Double vanity with spa tub in master bath. In-Law suite has separate entrance, en suite with spa tub and kitchen. Family room has a fireplace & balcony, living room has a fireplace. Balcony off the kitchen. Don't miss this!"

The 3 bed / 2 bath 2507 California Ave. also claimed to be "PRICED TO SELL" when listed 11/12/08 for $1,599K. They rather exaggerated, and it was withdrawn unsold 2/26/09. It came back 10/30/09, reduced 14% to $1,375K, again claiming "PRICED TO SELL":

"PRICED TO SELL! VINTAGE 1929 SANTA MONICA BEAUTY IN FRANKLIN SCHOOL DISTRICT NORTH OF WILSHIRE! IMMACULATELY MAINTAINED WITH ORIGINAL INTEGRITY AND DETAIL. HIGH COVED CEILINGS, HARDWOOD FLOORS AND CROWN MOLDINGS. WONDERFUL PRIVATE YARD WITH FRUIT TREES. 1/2 BLOCK TO DOUGLAS PARK. CLOSE TO MONTANA SHOPS & RESTAURANTS. DO NOT MISS THIS OPPORTUNITY. EVEN A BASEMENT FOR TONS OF STORAGE. THEY DON'T BUILD THEM LIKE THIS ANYMORE. CLASSIC! HURRY!"

Finally is 527 7th St. , a 2 bed / 1 bath lot-value property originally listed 5/12/08 for $1,799K. Relisted 1/23/09 for $1,690K, it was cancelled 4/09. Now it was listed a third time on 10/14/09. You'd think they'd recognize the last price was too high to sell, but nooo, it's again asking $1,690K - with plans this time - still questionable when new houses aren't selling and better houses on not-busy streets sold this year for $1,600K.

"Charming 1920's Spanish; great opportunity north of Montana. Move right in or build your dream home. Hardwood floors, updated kitchen, recessed lighting, central heat & AC, private grassy yard, bright lot, great sunlight. Plans for a 5 bedrooms, 5.5 baths, apx 4,200 sq ft Mediterranean single-story, plus finished guest sub terrain level! Great location 2 blocks from the park over the Ocean, and one block from Montana Avenue's shops, cafes and restaurants!. City approved plans included for 4,200 square ft. new home. ARCHITECTURAL PLANS, PLOT PLANS, ENGINEERING DRAWINGS, AND GEOLOGICAL REPORTS."

October monthly inventory report

2009-11-01T22:10:00.000-08:00

Santa Monica inventory rebounded from September with new listings, and is above a year ago. Pacific Palisades is down for the month and year. Palms-Mar Vista is flat for the month but down for the year, not surprising after the low-end buying frenzy. Westside total is down a little for the month and year. Charts to follow.

      LA County  Santa Monica Pacific Palisades  Mar Vista
               <$3M New Tot DOM<$2M New Tot DOM Tot New DOM
- -------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
J  1/30/06 27,732
F  2/28/06 29,420
M  3/31/06 31,819
A  5/ 1/06 34,032  38  33
M  6/ 2/06 37,847  56  36  38
J  6/30/06 42,317  66  40  49
J  8/ 4/06 45,315  70  34  50
A  9/ 1/06 46,781  71  27  59
S 10/ 6/06 47,369  83  25  98  71
O 11/ 3/06 45,780  80  20  91  77
N 12/ 1/06 43,103  65  18  72  96  39  20
D  1/ 5/07 35,646  54   4  60 117  33   6  71  66
- -------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
J  2/ 2/07 36,715  38  15  45 124  29  16  61  71  70
F  3/ 2/07 41,251  42  14  51 114  26  10  68  79  55  25  76
M  4/ 6/07 42,857  41  23  49 107  18   8  73 103  54  52  50
A  5/ 4/07 45,918  46  28  54  92  19   6  82  79  71  37  52
M  6/ 1/07 52,198  50  25  61  78  17  15  87  78  77  39  53
J  6/30/07 52,769  42  18  56  81  17  11  92  77  74  33  61
J  8/ 3/07 54,166  53  28  68  86  23  12  78  76  84  39  68
A  8/31/07 57,432  57  21  72  98  18   7  69  75  90  40  79
S  9/28/07 58,973  59  17  74 103  26   9  90  81  87  20  87
O 11/ 2/07 58,731  62  19  81 120  29   7 106  77  98  35  88
N 11/30/07 59,108  52  14  67 136  23  11  88  94  96  23  96
D 12/31/07 53,475  42   5  53 148  19   2  73 119  79  13 116
- -------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
J  2/ 1/08 53,722  54  16  67 157  26  16 101 118  89  36  96
F  2/29/08 53,520  50  10  68 178  29   8 108 108  88  21 103
M  3/28/08 53,566  57  17  81 171  32  14 122  92  82  22 105
A  5/ 2/08 54,098  59  14  83 159  35   7 136  93  90  33  96
M  5/30/08 53,216  56  23  79 147  34   9 142 106  91  29  89
J  6/27/08 53,058  74  28  98 131  30   6 129 107  96  26  95
J  8/ 2/08 51,906  66  14  89 125  34   8 120 136  99  35 101
A  8/29/08 50,124  62   9  79 122  29   5 108 156  91  25 104
S 10/ 3/08 48,113  58  14  82 145  41  15 128 132  84  24 109
O 10/31/08 47,017  64  22  90 131  55  18 159 126  83  21 103
N 11/28/08 45,216  64  12  91 141  54   7 151 124  73   9 130
D 12/31/08 40,810  52   3  80 171  47   5 130 134  63  10 144
- -------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
J  1/30/09 38,486  67  16  94 181  59  15 157 145  66  15 157
F  2/27/09 37,647  73  14  98 164  73  17 181 148  75  19 131
M  4/ 3/09         84  25 108 155  73  11 187 150  74  24 128
A  5/ 1/09         89  23 115 163  72  11 188 155  73  22 127
M  5/29/09         80  15 107 175  67  14 176 142  70  28 117
J  7/ 3/09         85  21 110 142  63  16 167 164  75  19 157
J  7/31/09         83  20 105 163  62   8 164 171  71  22 152
A  8/28/09         73  14  94 204  64  11 164 170  74  21 145
S 10/ 2/09         68  21  81 194  56   6 161 176  61  20 127
O 10/30/09         72  18  84 215  47   8 145 201  61  21 166

All Westside

                 1/30     4/3    5/29    7/31    10/2   11/27
                     2/27     5/1     7/3    8/28   10/30   12/31 
Bel Air-Holmby H. 101 106 120 137 147 152 160 150 136 123
Beverly Ctr.-M.M.  58  65  78  83  72  58  73  78  73  72
Beverly Hills     109 123 134 114 107 120 135 127 112 124
B.Hills P.O.      127 147 162 153 152 159 160 160 154 162
Beverlywood Vic.   47  54  62  60  48  42  51  45  51  45
Brentwood         146 162 157 167 155 155 146 128 136 126
Cheviot-R.Park '8' 31  38  33  39  31  31  39  33  32  23
Culver City        52  44  36  33  34  41  39  26  27  36
Malibu            254 267 288 290 281 280 274 263 260 265
Malibu Beach       63  70  70  70  69  65  62  67  70  76
Marina Del Rey     32  32  28  34  34  35  30  25  25  24
Pacific Palisades 157 181 187 188 176 167 164 164 161 145
Palms-Mar Vista    66  75  74  73  70  75  71  74  61  61
Playa Del Rey      24  24  20  21  27  22  22  19  24  21
Playa Vista         6   6   5   3   5   4   5   6   9   8
Santa Monica       94  98 108 115 107 110 105  94  81  84
Sunset-Hwd.Hills  285 299 312 293 294 288 305 306 292 284
Topanga            70  73  71  73  77  75  83  77  76  65
Venice            104 121 119 115 111 102 110 101  83  78
W.Hollywood Vic.   61  58  50  56  51  48  50  58  56  51
West L.A.          20  30  32  25  23  17  22  27  21  24
Westchester        53  60  57  42  43  47  56  46  47  40
Westwood-Cent.City 67  72  78  78  82  67  71  59  47  42
                  ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ 
2009 Total       2027    2281    2196    2233    2034
                     2205    2262    2160    2133    1979
2008 Total       1509    1694    1917    2019    2006    2128
                     1524    1846    1974    1942    2085    1822
2007 Total       1282    1274    1457    1522    1671    1600
                     1308    1377    1483    1551    1731    1329

Notes

See here for 2007 monthly totals. LA County inventory via OC Renter. Santa Monica Days on Market (DOM) is for <$3M, and omits Santa Monica Canyon (in City of Los Angeles but S.M. Post Office). Pacific Palisades DOM is for <$2M and count omits mobile homes. "New" is for previous month, or month-to-date for current partial month.

August S&P/Case-Shiller

2009-10-29T10:03:00.000-07:00

Tuesday's August 2009 S&P/Case-Shiller update continued its uptick, although less steeply. Overall Los Angeles (including Orange County) was up 1.6% from July (compared with 1.8% from June), and is now down 39.2% from its September 2006 peak, although still at September 2003 levels. The national (orange line, their original 10-city Composite) index is down 30.2% from its peak in June 2006.

Besides the original city index they have each city broken into Low, Middle, and High tiers (Under $287,661, $287,661 - $474,760, and Over $474,760; updated for August).

As I wrote last month, I don't see this indicating a bottom on the Westside, which appears lagging the Case-Shiller for Los Angeles. My updated North of Montana Index has another year to go to hit my projection of 2003 prices in 2010, but is consistent with Case-Shiller's reversion to 2003 prices.

Finally, here is the Los Angeles Case-Shiller index scaled with the Los Angeles DataQuick median price history (normalized Case-Shiller's January 2000 = 100).

"$15,000 Home Buyers Credit Costs $292,000/home"

2009-10-22T13:47:00.000-07:00

Barry Ritholtz's "The Big Picture" is one of my first reads every day. Today's post begins with a simple synopsis of the cause of the housing bubble:

I have long argued that home prices are elevated, and until they normalize, the economy will be stuck in the doldrums. I even wrote a chapter of Bailout Nation, titled “The Virtue of Foreclosure.” I make a basic economic argument that the excess credit of the 2001-07 era is unwinding, and foreclosures are part of that process.

The simple premise is that the abdication of lending standards by both bank and nonbank lenders created an enormous credit bubble. Easy money drove home prices to unsustainable and unaffordable levels. People bought homes far more expensive than they could reasonably afford. Many assumed they would be able to refinance, paying for the excess costs by cashing out the price appreciation everyone knew was sure to follow.

Of course, we know what happened next. Prices rose unsustainably, credit tightened up, and the supply of greater fools abated. So much for the real estate perpetual motion machine.

He concludes:

Its one thing to argue as to whether the government should be so brazenly intervening into the housing market, and I can understand reasonable people disagreeing. But the subsidy — whether its $133,000 or $292,000 — is absurd.

"Million Dollar Listing"

2009-10-20T10:09:00.000-07:00

Any of you watch the Bravo reality show "Million Dollar Listing", featuring three young real estate agents Josh Flagg, Madison Hildebrand, and Chad Rogers?

A major theme of its new season 3 has been how even our Westside market has tanked as these agents "struggle to ink their million dollar deals during this economic downturn" "in the most exclusive neighborhoods – Hollywood, Malibu and Beverly Hills."

Episode 2 last night featured the sale of a Malibu house at 32% off original asking price; a Marina del Rey house with no buyer interest, and a listing cancelled by a flipper/seller who didn't want to reduce her price.

Like some specifics about these properties? They weren't hard to find, between the show, the agents' websites (linked above), and Google.

Madison's "Hamptons in Malibu" house at 6311 Gayton Place (top photo; click any to enlarge) was listed 8/25/08 for $4,400K. It's a 6 bed / 7.5 bath, 6,053 SF house on a 60,548 SF lot less than a mile northwest of PCH and Kanan Dume road.

Its original listing price got no interest. We saw it reduced 14% last night to $3,795K and the seller then accept an offer of $3M even without even a counter-offer (32% off). It closed 2/11/09.

Which also brackets the shooting period of the show and the real estate downturn it describes as beginning in the summer of 2008.

Second is this Marina del Rey "Golden Triangle" (southwest of Lincoln and Washington) 3 bed / 2.5 bath 2,304 SF house on a small 4,922 SF lot at 819 Dickson St. co-listed by Chad on 3/18/09 for $1,739K.

Where we watched the two co-listing agents sit with no visitors during their first public open house. But the seller expressed that she couldn't reduce the price. From the MLS we find (spoiler alert?) that this listing expired 182 days later, but was relisted 10/11/09 as a Short Sale for $1,350K.

Finally was Madison's 3 bed / 3 bath 2,269 SF flip on a 7,187 SF lot at 18436 Wakecrest Dr. in Malibu (the area on the hill above PCH just west of Pacific Palisades and the Getty Villa). It was listed 8/4/08 for $2,996K, priced as the seller's numerologist advised.

Continuing the theme, its flipper-owner didn't want to reduce the price to match other comps - because of all she'd put into it - and we saw her last night take it off the market rather than reduce it to $2,150K as Madison advised.

We find from the MLS that it was reduced (in a future episode?) to $2,150K, but still expired after 253 DOM (last April). It was also offered for lease at $8,500/month.

Added: See also Curbed LA's episode summary.

"Too many palatial homes"

2009-10-16T15:26:00.000-07:00

This Peter Hong article in the L.A. Times is so applicable to our Westside. High-end price cutting not only pushes down those houses' prices, it ripples all the way down to lot-value houses that spec builders don't want because they're no longer building, like it did after 1990.

Last week there were 14 houses in Santa Monica over $3M, not that those are all recently-built. See also the Calculated Risk quote at the bottom, which matches my expectations.

Too many palatial homes, too few princely buyers

By Peter Y. Hong
October 4, 2009

Two years ago, Larry Igarashi bet he could build a sprawling house in Orange County's foothills that would sell for at least $10 million. These days, you can easily guess how that turned out.

On Saturday he put the eight-bedroom house in the gated Coto de Caza community on the auction block and got a high bid of $6.6 million -- less than he was willing to accept.

Igarashi had gone all-out when he built the "Santa Barbara ranch" house: The master bedroom suite alone is 3,200 square feet, a bit smaller than the 10-car, climate-controlled garage, which measures 4,000 square feet. The driveway is long enough for a firetruck to turn around, and there's a wine storage enclave with room for 1,400 bottles.

The 16,500-square-foot hilltop house -- in the community that was the setting for "The Real Housewives of Orange County" television show -- is just one of dozens of unsold mega-mansions across Southern California conceived during the real estate bubble, when builders waged an ill-timed arms race to ever-increasing extravagance.

Comparably deluxe houses now lie vacant in droves along the coasts and hillsides of Southern California, from Manhattan Beach to Irvine. Their owners could afford to keep them on the market for months, sometimes years, hoping to find buyers who would pay their asking prices.

That holding pattern has kept the most expensive segment of the home market from posting the kinds of sharp price drops seen just about everywhere else. But it's now clear that there are too many palatial properties and too few princely buyers.

As more sellers like Igarashi decide to cut their losses and move on -- or are compelled to do so by their lenders -- the most expensive homes could slip from their perch at the top rung of the market.

"Sellers there now have to unload, and in order to do so, they must reduce their prices," said Chapman University economist Esmael Adibi.

Spec mansions are now amassed in some areas like rising floodwater behind a dam. A search of homes for sale built since 2007 and priced above $3 million shows 39 such properties in Newport Beach and Newport Coast, 27 in Laguna Beach, 19 in Manhattan Beach, 18 in Irvine and 11 on the Palos Verdes Peninsula.

There are also hundreds of other multimillion-dollar homes for sale in Southern California that were not recently built, but sellers who live in homes they bought before the housing bubble are less likely to be under the same pressure to sell as speculators stuck with vacant properties and construction loans coming due.

As speculators and recent purchasers who must get out of mortgages that exceed their home values slash prices to find buyers, other sellers will have to lower their prices to compete.

In much the same way that foreclosures pulled down market prices for lower-priced homes, stressed sellers could deflate the high end by unloading luxury homes at bargain prices.

But even at cut-rate prices, few multimillion-dollar homes are selling. With so many to choose from, even those with enough money are taking their time.

"There's no sense of urgency among buyers," Igarashi said. He had hoped that the prospect of snaring a good deal through Saturday's auction would motivate those who have been delaying a purchase to get off the fence. But it turned out to be a double disappointment.

Igarashi had two houses at auction. The other was a six-bedroom Tuscan-style house he had once listed for $5.75 million. He finished the 10,500-square-foot house in 2007; it sat unsold as the even grander second house was built. It drew a top bid of $3.1 million, below Igarashi's undisclosed minimum. After the auction, Igarashi began negotiating with the high bidder on each property, and was still talking with them at the end of the day.

Near his houses, another six-bedroom home is being auctioned later this month with a starting bid of $3.9 million. It had failed to sell when listed at $9 million.

Auctions can backfire. In December, five new homes in Manhattan Beach were auctioned with opening bids of more than $1 million -- none were sold.

Buyers will eventually emerge as prices fall, Adibi said. Still, it's hard to know how much real demand there is for super-sized homes, even among the very wealthy.

Spec home builders were motivated to ramp up square footage to justify higher prices on their projects. But buyers today who are more likely be looking for a long-term home than a place to flip may not want the trouble of maintaining such large houses.

A bigger question also remains: What if the giant spec homes just never sell?

Stefanos Polyzoides, a Pasadena architect who is an advocate of more dense, compact residences, said sometimes economies change in ways that make the original uses of buildings obsolete. The grand mansions of Newport, R.I., for example, have been converted to condominium buildings or inns, he notes.

Polyzoides doubts such reinventions could work for many of the latest spec mansions. "Some of these are huge albatrosses in exurbia surrounded by nothing. Many of these could face a very hard ending," he said.

Igarashi acknowledged that he miscalculated the market. As he showed a reporter around his Coto de Caza project -- a sprawling tile-roofed building measuring 218 feet across -- Igarashi said it was easy to do in the go-go years.

Though he made a fortune as a titanium golf club manufacturer, Igarashi had been building spec homes as a kind of working hobby since 1980 -- turning profits on all six homes he built in Orange County before his two latest.

"I just didn't expect this would happen," Igarashi said of the housing crash. "I don't think Wall Street or even the president of the United States believed this could happen."

He now hopes to get what he can for the houses and move on. He'd like to pick up land at today's fire-sale prices and build more homes. But Igarashi said he'll take a different approach next time. He plans to build apartments.

Copyright © 2009, The Los Angeles Times

And don't miss Calculated Risk's "The Uncertain Housing Outlook" yesterday, that concluded,

So my guess is another down turn in the housing market in 2010 (existing home sales and prices), although prices have probably already bottomed in many low end areas.

September DataQuick

2009-10-16T15:13:00.000-07:00

Catching up department: Tuesday's DataQuick numbers for September seem more to have plateaued, not to indicate a continued rise. In our Westside areas even that is more typical of the low-end frenzy in Mar Vista, not the stuck higher-priced market.

Los Angeles County's median was flat month-to-month at $330K, now down 40.0% for Los Angeles County from its peak in August 2007. Volumes were up 14% year-to-year from September 2008. (July DataQuick post)

That left Los Angeles County prices at July 2003, Orange County also at July 2003, Ventura County at April 2003, and San Diego County at June 2002.

Palisades rollback

2009-10-10T16:02:00.000-07:00

Back on February 11 this Pacific Palisades El Medio Bluffs house was an example of 2003 prices, when this 3 bed / 2 bath 1,765 SF house on a small 4,225 SF corner lot sold 12/5/03 for $860K.

Now 601 Erskine Drive is back on the market. Originally listed 3/20/08 for $1,650K, it was withdrawn 5/20/08, and is now relisted 10/5/09 for $1,095K.

It's heading toward its 2003 price, and if its expansion and remodel was after the 2003 sale it is even closer.

"No expense spared, no detail overlooked, in renovation & remodeling of this turnkey, move-in condition Pacific Palisades Bluffs beauty. Prime sun-kissed corner. Ideal scale & flow for entertaining & play. Spectacular contemporary country kitchen w/every amazing bell & whistle. 2 bedrooms, 1.75 baths & bonus, all bathed in natural light. "Dressed up” garage for versatile use; room above garage is ideal study or studio. Magical gardens."

New north of Montana sales

2009-10-04T17:18:00.000-07:00

Here are ~~two~~ three newly-sold low-end north of Montana houses above $1.6M but below $2M (click photos to enlarge). These are all 60-foot lots (although two are near Montana or San Vicente) and reinforce the new low-end north of Montana is below $2M.

First is 747 23rd Street, a 3 bed / 2 bath 1,216 SF house on an 8,700 SF lot (60' x 145'), the second lot north of Montana Ave.

It was listed 7/15/09 for $1,799K, reduced to $1,749K mid-August, went Pending 8/28/09, and closed 9/29/09 for $1,645K.

"A bright & sunny traditional (2 bdrms + den/possible 3rd) with an open floorplan & hrdwd flrs throughout. Very livable for now --then perfect for expansion/redoing later. Featuring an updated kitchen with newer stainless appliances opening onto the living/dining areas & perfect for entertaining. Beautiful frontyard and backyard both lushly landscaped. Situated on a great street in the Franklin School district & an easy stroll from all the Montana Ave shops and the Brentwood Country Mart"

Second is 231 18th Street, a 3 bed / 1.75 bath 1,829 SF Cecil Gale house on an 8,940 SF (60' x 149') lot.

Listed 8/20/09 for $1,994K, it went into escrow three days later and closed 9/23/09 for $1,968K.

"Romantic 1935 Cecil A. Gale Spanish Colonial on larger lot, in Gillet Regent Sq. Decorat. wrought iron gate opens to Pvt front patio courtyd. Gracious step-down living rm has beautifully designed beamed ceiling & Span. tiled fireplace. Rich architectural detail, hardwood floors, archways, vintage tile, signature stained glass skylight & abundant closet space. Dining rm features cust. coffered ceiling. Master French drs open to Pvt backyd,outdr fire/p, pool,lush landsc.avail 2nd time in 50yrs."

So exclusive, available for only the "2nd time in 50 years". But the last time was listed 1/11/08 for $2,349K and sold 2/8/08 for $2,325K. That's a 15% drop in 1.5 years.

Added: Finally is 340 21st Place, a 3 bed / 1 bath 1,728 SF house on a 9,000 SF lot. Listed 7/22/09 for $2,095K, it was reduced to $1,995K and closed 9/29/09 for $1,810K.

"1920s Spanish on 60x150 lot in Gillette Regent Square. Private backyard with mature hedges. Existing home being sold “AS-IS”. 3bd+1ba, living room w/brick fireplace opens to large formal dining room. Family room leads to kitchen. Ready for remodel or build your dream house! Ideally located on quiet 21st Place in the Franklin School District. Close to all Montana Avenue’s boutiques, cafes and restaurants."

New, Sold, and Withdrawn/Expired listings

2009-10-03T23:31:00.000-07:00

There were NO new Santa Monica listings over $3M in September. Combined with record Withdrawn/Expired listings, that inventory is down (inventory charts).

Santa Monica sales below $3M were higher than the previous two years. Palms-Mar Vista sales lagged 2008 despite the conforming loan frenzy.

September inventory charts

2009-10-03T23:19:00.000-07:00

Inventory is generally up from 2008, except for Palms-Mar Vista after its conforming loan buying frenzy and Santa Monica over $3M which had NO new listings in September.

Considering that inventory levels a year ago (along with the recession, which is not ending in a significant way anytime soon) drove subsequent price reductions of over 20%, I expect another price drop ahead.

September monthly inventory report

2009-10-03T10:23:00.000-07:00

Although down from August, inventory is generally still higher than a year ago, giving every reason to expect further price declines on the Westside. Charts to follow.

      LA County  Santa Monica Pacific Palisades  Mar Vista
               <$3M New Tot DOM<$2M New Tot DOM Tot New DOM
- -------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
J  1/30/06 27,732
F  2/28/06 29,420
M  3/31/06 31,819
A  5/ 1/06 34,032  38  33
M  6/ 2/06 37,847  56  36  38
J  6/30/06 42,317  66  40  49
J  8/ 4/06 45,315  70  34  50
A  9/ 1/06 46,781  71  27  59
S 10/ 6/06 47,369  83  25  98  71
O 11/ 3/06 45,780  80  20  91  77
N 12/ 1/06 43,103  65  18  72  96  39  20
D  1/ 5/07 35,646  54   4  60 117  33   6  71  66
- -------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
J  2/ 2/07 36,715  38  15  45 124  29  16  61  71  70
F  3/ 2/07 41,251  42  14  51 114  26  10  68  79  55  25  76
M  4/ 6/07 42,857  41  23  49 107  18   8  73 103  54  52  50
A  5/ 4/07 45,918  46  28  54  92  19   6  82  79  71  37  52
M  6/ 1/07 52,198  50  25  61  78  17  15  87  78  77  39  53
J  6/30/07 52,769  42  18  56  81  17  11  92  77  74  33  61
J  8/ 3/07 54,166  53  28  68  86  23  12  78  76  84  39  68
A  8/31/07 57,432  57  21  72  98  18   7  69  75  90  40  79
S  9/28/07 58,973  59  17  74 103  26   9  90  81  87  20  87
O 11/ 2/07 58,731  62  19  81 120  29   7 106  77  98  35  88
N 11/30/07 59,108  52  14  67 136  23  11  88  94  96  23  96
D 12/31/07 53,475  42   5  53 148  19   2  73 119  79  13 116
- -------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
J  2/ 1/08 53,722  54  16  67 157  26  16 101 118  89  36  96
F  2/29/08 53,520  50  10  68 178  29   8 108 108  88  21 103
M  3/28/08 53,566  57  17  81 171  32  14 122  92  82  22 105
A  5/ 2/08 54,098  59  14  83 159  35   7 136  93  90  33  96
M  5/30/08 53,216  56  23  79 147  34   9 142 106  91  29  89
J  6/27/08 53,058  74  28  98 131  30   6 129 107  96  26  95
J  8/ 2/08 51,906  66  14  89 125  34   8 120 136  99  35 101
A  8/29/08 50,124  62   9  79 122  29   5 108 156  91  25 104
S 10/ 3/08 48,113  58  14  82 145  41  15 128 132  84  24 109
O 10/31/08 47,017  64  22  90 131  55  18 159 126  83  21 103
N 11/28/08 45,216  64  12  91 141  54   7 151 124  73   9 130
D 12/31/08 40,810  52   3  80 171  47   5 130 134  63  10 144
- -------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
J  1/30/09 38,486  67  16  94 181  59  15 157 145  66  15 157
F  2/27/09 37,647  73  14  98 164  73  17 181 148  75  19 131
M  4/ 3/09         84  25 108 155  73  11 187 150  74  24 128
A  5/ 1/09         89  23 115 163  72  11 188 155  73  22 127
M  5/29/09         80  15 107 175  67  14 176 142  70  28 117
J  7/ 3/09         85  21 110 142  63  16 167 164  75  19 157
J  7/31/09         83  20 105 163  62   8 164 171  71  22 152
A  8/28/09         73  14  94 204  64  11 164 170  74  21 145
S 10/ 2/09         68  21  81 194  56   6 161 176  61  20 127

All Westside

                 1/30     4/3    5/29    7/31    10/2   11/27
                     2/27     5/1     7/3    8/28   10/30   12/31 
Bel Air-Holmby H. 101 106 120 137 147 152 160 150 136
Beverly Ctr.-M.M.  58  65  78  83  72  58  73  78  73
Beverly Hills     109 123 134 114 107 120 135 127 112
B.Hills P.O.      127 147 162 153 152 159 160 160 154
Beverlywood Vic.   47  54  62  60  48  42  51  45  51
Brentwood         146 162 157 167 155 155 146 128 136
Cheviot-R.Park '8' 31  38  33  39  31  31  39  33  32
Culver City        52  44  36  33  34  41  39  26  27
Malibu            254 267 288 290 281 280 274 263 260
Malibu Beach       63  70  70  70  69  65  62  67  70
Marina Del Rey     32  32  28  34  34  35  30  25  25
Pacific Palisades 157 181 187 188 176 167 164 164 161
Palms-Mar Vista    66  75  74  73  70  75  71  74  61
Playa Del Rey      24  24  20  21  27  22  22  19  24
Playa Vista         6   6   5   3   5   4   5   6   9
Santa Monica       94  98 108 115 107 110 105  94  81
Sunset-Hwd.Hills  285 299 312 293 294 288 305 306 292
Topanga            70  73  71  73  77  75  83  77  76
Venice            104 121 119 115 111 102 110 101  83
W.Hollywood Vic.   61  58  50  56  51  48  50  58  56
West L.A.          20  30  32  25  23  17  22  27  21
Westchester        53  60  57  42  43  47  56  46  47
Westwood-Cent.City 67  72  78  78  82  67  71  59  47
                  ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ 
2009 Total       2027    2281    2196    2233    2034
                     2205    2262    2160    2133
2008 Total       1509    1694    1917    2019    2006    2128
                     1524    1846    1974    1942    2085    1822
2007 Total       1282    1274    1457    1522    1671    1600
                     1308    1377    1483    1551    1731    1329

Notes

July S&P/Case-Shiller

2009-09-29T12:30:00.000-07:00

Today's July 2009 S&P/Case-Shiller update showed more of an uptick. Overall Los Angeles (including Orange County) was up 2% from June, and is now down 40.2% from its September 2006 peak, back to September 2003 levels. The national (orange line, their original 10-city Composite) index is down 31.1% from its peak in June 2006.

Besides the original city index they have each city broken into Low, Middle, and High tiers (Under $282,535, $282,535 - $457,807, and Over $457,807; updated for July).

Have we passed the bottom? I don't think so. First, although the Case-Shiller is smoothed, it has still had ups and downs within a larger trend. Notice the dip in April 1991 and rebound in August 1991, before it continued down four more years. The fundamentals are that many houses have yet to hit the market.

Second, our Westside appears lagging the Case-Shiller for Los Angeles, as in my North of Montana Index two recent sales at $1.6M. It has another year to go to hit my projection of 2003 prices in 2010, but is consistent with Case-Shiller's reversion to 2003 prices.

Finally, I wondered what it would look like to superimpose the Los Angeles Case-Shiller index with the Los Angeles DataQuick median price history. I normalized DataQuick to Case-Shiller's January 2000 = 100 to get this graph. DataQuick peaked later and higher, and bottomed sooner, showing how the mix of houses sold affects the median price. (I know, I didn't post DataQuick for August; here's July's.)

Affordable Palisades

2009-09-24T12:12:00.000-07:00

This 2 bedroom / 1 bath house at 559 Bienveneda Ave. is distinctive as the lowest-priced house listing in Pacific Palisades, quiet and secluded (the opposite of Sunset Blvd. noise!), small but in good condition.

Listed 8/13/09 for $929K, it's now down to $899K. Originally built in 1950, it's fixed up inside in a flip sort of way (unlike the probate at 616 Las Lomas that finally sold for $765K on 7/30/09), but still a small 793 SF (from the County; what, is the broker embarrased to give this?) on a 4,486 SF lot overlooking a canyon. According to Zillow it last sold 2/3/06 for $700K. Not much of a listing description, either:

"New home. Alternative to condominium. Nice fenced rear yard."

Lot of house for $2M

2009-09-21T16:25:00.000-07:00

This new listing (9/14/09) at 721 19th St. is another interesting indicator of falling north of Montana prices. It's a 5 bedroom / 3 bath, 2,418 SF house on a 60-foot (8,940 SF) Gillette lot, asking $2,050K. The two-story remodel looks in good condition but a bit dated. It's on the lowest block, but not a busy street or right next to Montana. That's a whole lot of house compared with what $2 million bought not long ago!

"Fabulous opportunity North of Montana. Beautiful classic Spanish in prime Gillette Regent Square exudes w/ potential on huge 8940 square foot lot. Spacious home w/ 5 bds, 3 ba. Frml entry leads to liv rm w/ beamed ceiling s, hrdwd flrs, frplc. Kit opens to lrg breakfast rm & fam rm w/ Frnch drs leading to wooden deck & expansive yard w/ mature fruit trees. Mstr suite has vaulted beamed ceilings, gorgeous treetop vws & private balcony. Tremendous value and great potential. Near shops/restaurants!"

Click to enlarge photos.

Low-end north of Montana (2)

2009-09-11T00:50:00.000-07:00

This chart of low-end north of Montana sales on 9th, 10th, 12th, and Euclid Streets, normalized and plotted on the S&P/Case-Shiller, should be familiar. In January I introduced this model and projected, based on Santa Monica Household Income (the pink line), that prices would fall around 33% from the $2,050K peak, to a low-end price of around $1,350K, representing a retrace to 2003 prices.

So far we've seen prices fall over 22% to below $1,600K (i.e. the recent low-end sales at $1,600K are better than tear-downs).

Inventory remains high. I expect once again in 2009 that the spring predictions of economic upturn in the fall will be missed, and another price step down in 2010 will hit or overshoot my prediction.

For a different view of low-end north of Montana prices beyond those four streets, here are all the MLS sales I've recorded since 2006, north of Montana, below $2M. From very few in the previous three years, mostly on busy streets like 7th and 26th, there have been a lot in the first 2/3 of this year. Prices are clearly falling.

Address, bed/bath, sale date, sale price (-% from last list price)

2006
633 7th, 3/2, 12/6/06, $1,410K (-6%)
717 7th, 3/1.75, 6/8/06, $1,540K (-7%)
441 7th, 2/2.5, 8/18/06, $1,580K (-1%)
450 Lincoln, 2/2, 11/9/06, $1,605K (-8%)
620 17th, 2/2, 11/7/06, $1,860K (-7%)

2007
420 7th, 3/2, 12/21/07, $1,452K (+4%)

2008
476 26th, 2/2, 5/28/08, $1,575K (-7%)
420 7th, 2/2, 9/29/08, $1,600K (-6%)
1140 San Vicente, lot, 6/4/08, $1,675K (-12%)
219 23rd, 3/2.5, 4/9/08, $1,880K (-14%)
460 Lincoln, 3/3, 11/21/08, $1,900K (-13%)

2009
720 17th, 1/1, 6/26/09, $1,400K
320 9th, 3/2, 5/20/09, $1,600K (-6%)
415 17th, 3/3, 6/15/09, $1,600K (-11%)
714 Euclid, 4/3, 9/2/09, $1,600K (-6%)
620 22nd, 3/2, 8/19/09, $1,625K (-9%)
210 21st, 3/3, 4/14/09, $1,700K (-8%)
636 16th, 2/2, 8/21/09, $1,700K (-15%)
517 14th, 3/2.75, 4/16/09, $1,775K (-6%)
716 18th, 3/2, 5/29/09, $1,780K (-5%)
409 21st, 2/2, 8/27/09, $1,800K (-18%)
1320 San Vicente, 3/3.5, 4/13/09, $1,980K (-10%)

Low-end north of Montana (1)

2009-09-11T00:03:00.000-07:00

Two important new low-end north of Montana data points are, first, that 714 Euclid St. closed on 9/2/09 for $1,600K, same as 320 9th and 454 9th. Better than a tear-down, it's large for a 3 bed / 2 bath house at 2,178 SF (its family room and third bath on the back could be a separate unit), and Euclid is a quiet street. The main negatives are it's the first block above Montana and the kitchen could use a remodel.

"Charming, 1927 Spanish in coveted ‘North of Montana’ neighborhood. Lovely, spacious living room w/ high, beamed ceilings, original windows and wood-burning fireplace. Sunny kitchen with new fixtures. Open ‘Library’/ ‘Study’ off kitchen. French Doors. Hardwood floors. Coved ceilings. A 4th bedroom, 3rd ba & fam room can be closed off to create an In-Law unit. 2-zoned central heat. All appliances stay. Good storage. Fabulous location for easy access to shops, restaurants and the beach!"

Second is that this 3 bed / 2 bath 2,035 SF house at 717 11th St., listed 7/1/09 for $1,495K (withdrawn 7/15 but back on the market in late August), has not sold. It appears in similar condition as Euclid, but with the added negative of traffic on 11th Street. The process for probates in court takes longer, though, and there could be overbids.

"Outstanding Location! Spanish 3+1.75 with charming details. Spacious living room with a large bay window fireplace, kitchen with hand painted tiles with breakfast area and French doors opening to a patio. 3 nice size bedrooms and a den with FP. The yard enjoys a private pool. This lovely home is awaiting for your touch and TLC. Probate sale, court confirmation required."

Glut in Stewart Park

2009-09-10T20:00:00.000-07:00

There's a glut of new listings in Stewart Park, the Santa Monica neighborhood north of Pico, east of Stewart, and bisected by the Santa Monica Freeway and its roar. More striking, three have been fixed up after previous sales in 2006-7, and are seeking profits of $100-200K for their trouble in a declining market.

There's one pending listing (bottom) that's closer to what these are actually worth. And here are other sold comps from 2006-2007. With this many listings, this overpriced, I don't expect many sales anytime soon. Here's the list; only the last is two stories.

3208 Urban Ave. (photo from 2007, click to enlarge), 2 bed / 1 bath, asking $829K (Sold 8/30/07 $635K; we covered that listing back in July 2007)

"Urban Oasis. Traditional California meets comtemporary. Great interior flow with hardwood floors through out. Kitchen updates include stainless steel appliances, stone counters and new cabinetry. Bathroom has been upgraded with travertine floors, limestone walls and a Zuma soaking tub. Den has stone floors and French doors that open to a nice back Yard with built in BBQ/ Out door kitchen. Garage has been converted to a live/work space."

3008 Delaware Ave., 2 bed / 1 bath, $869K (Sold 4/7/06 $769K)

"Charming, recently remodeled home on a tree-lined street in beautiful and desirable Stewart Park neighborhood. Fireplace in the Living Room, separate Dining Room, Laundry Room, Hardwood & Tiled Floors throughout, completely remodeled Bathroom and Kitchen, updated Plumbing and Electrical, 2-Car Garage, ample grassy Backyard with covered Patio and Vegetable Garden. Realtors ... come show and sell this move-in ready beauty!"

2916 Kansas Ave., 3 bed / 2 bath, $899K (Sold 3/11/05 $820K)

"Charming Santa Monica home on great cul-de-sac street! This recently remodeled home features a spacious kitchen w/granite counters & stainless appliances that opens to dining area & living room w/lots of windows, hardwd floors & crown molding. Large master bedrm suite w/2 closets, doors leading to yard & bath w/dual sinks. 2 add’l large bedrms share remodeled bath accented w/marble & onyx plus, flat screen TV, separate shower & spa tub. Large grassy yard w/2 patios. Great home & great value."

1912 Warwick Ave., 3 bed / 2 bath, $968K (Sold 6/16/06 $765K)

"Tenant occupied – Please do not disturb : : Delivered vacant or keep as a rental. Current rent is $4,200 per month. This corner lot house in Stewart Park is DONE. Totally remodeled in 2007: 200 Amp electric, copper plumbing, central heat/air, landscaping, recessed lighting, refinished wood floors, crown moldings & wood burning fireplace re-faced w stacked stone. Kitchen & bathrooms remodeled: Granite counters, travertine/marble tiles, jetted tub & double sink."

3020 Delaware Ave., 3 bed / 2 bath, $975K

"Restored two story traditional with contemporary style. The home is flooded with natural light complimenting the hardwood floors. The bedrooms are generously sized adding to the airy, bright and crisp aesthetic. The home lends itself to indoor/outdoor entertaining with a lush, well landscaped and private yard."

There's also one Pending listing (since 6/9/09), 2208 Yorkshire Ave., 3 bed / 2 bath, last asking $650K (-7%).

"**IN ESCROW BUT TAKING BACK UP OFFERS**This property is located in Santa Monica near shops and schools it's in a great location. Needs TLC and to be sold "as-is". Bring your buyers today!!"

Weekly inventory update

2009-09-06T20:22:00.000-07:00

9/4/09 - All are down for the week, the most in Mar Vista as the buying frenzy there continues.

        LA County  Santa Monica  Pacific Palisades  Mar Vista
                 <$3M New Tot DOM<$2M New Tot DOM Tot New DOM
- -------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
J  1/30/06 27,732
F  2/28/06 29,420
M  3/31/06 31,819
A  5/ 1/06 34,032  38  33
M  6/ 2/06 37,847  56  36  38
J  6/30/06 42,317  66  40  49
J  8/ 4/06 45,315  70  34  50
A  9/ 1/06 46,781  71  27  59
S 10/ 6/06 47,369  83  25  98  71
O 11/ 3/06 45,780  80  20  91  77
N 12/ 1/06 43,103  65  18  72  96  39  20
D  1/ 5/07 35,646  54   4  60 117  33   6  71  66
- -------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
J  2/ 2/07 36,715  38  15  45 124  29  16  61  71  70
F  3/ 2/07 41,251  42  14  51 114  26  10  68  79  55  25  76
M  4/ 6/07 42,857  41  23  49 107  18   8  73 103  54  52  50
A  5/ 4/07 45,918  46  28  54  92  19   6  82  79  71  37  52
M  6/ 1/07 52,198  50  25  61  78  17  15  87  78  77  39  53
J  6/30/07 52,769  42  18  56  81  17  11  92  77  74  33  61
J  8/ 3/07 54,166  53  28  68  86  23  12  78  76  84  39  68
A  8/31/07 57,432  57  21  72  98  18   7  69  75  90  40  79
S  9/28/07 58,973  59  17  74 103  26   9  90  81  87  20  87
O 11/ 2/07 58,731  62  19  81 120  29   7 106  77  98  35  88
N 11/30/07 59,108  52  14  67 136  23  11  88  94  96  23  96
D 12/31/07 53,475  42   5  53 148  19   2  73 119  79  13 116
- -------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
J  2/ 1/08 53,722  54  16  67 157  26  16 101 118  89  36  96
F  2/29/08 53,520  50  10  68 178  29   8 108 108  88  21 103
M  3/28/08 53,566  57  17  81 171  32  14 122  92  82  22 105
A  5/ 2/08 54,098  59  14  83 159  35   7 136  93  90  33  96
M  5/30/08 53,216  56  23  79 147  34   9 142 106  91  29  89
J  6/27/08 53,058  74  28  98 131  30   6 129 107  96  26  95
J  8/ 2/08 51,906  66  14  89 125  34   8 120 136  99  35 101
A  8/29/08 50,124  62   9  79 122  29   5 108 156  91  25 104
S 10/ 3/08 48,113  58  14  82 145  41  15 128 132  84  24 109
O 10/31/08 47,017  64  22  90 131  55  18 159 126  83  21 103
N 11/28/08 45,216  64  12  91 141  54   7 151 124  73   9 130
D 12/31/08 40,810  52   3  80 171  47   5 130 134  63  10 144
- -------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
J  1/30/09 38,486  67  16  94 181  59  15 157 145  66  15 157
F  2/27/09 37,647  73  14  98 164  73  17 181 148  75  19 131
M  4/ 3/09         84  25 108 155  73  11 187 150  74  24 128
A  5/ 1/09         89  23 115 163  72  11 188 155  73  22 127
M  5/29/09         80  15 107 175  67  14 176 142  70  28 117
J  7/ 3/09         85  21 110 142  63  16 167 164  75  19 157
J  7/31/09         83  20 105 163  62   8 164 171  71  22 152
A  8/ 7/09         80   6 103 170  64   3 164 179  70   0 172
S  8/28/09         73  15  94 204  64  11 164 170  74  26 145
   9/ 4/09         72   4  90 195  61   0 153 175  68   2 161
   9/11/09

July-August SM sales update

2009-09-03T13:02:00.000-07:00

Here are Santa Monica sales closed in July and August, since our July 7 1H update (which included three that closed 7/1-7/2). Listing dates before 2009 and reductions over 10% are in red. Links are to houses featured here (a whole two) and on SM Distress Monitor.

A number of recent listings asked competitive prices and sold quickly, in contrast to a few ancient listings that finally took huge discounts. Three sold above final asking price, an indication of (only) a few multiple-offer situations. Conversely there are examples of no asking price reduction but an offer quickly accepted well below asking.

Address, bed/bath, current price (-% from orig.), orig.list date, sale date, sale price (-% from last list price)

Sunset Park 90405 (south of Pico, east of Lincoln)

2432 21st, 3/1.5, $790K (-4%), 3/28/09, 8/28/09, $810K (+3%)
2329 32nd, 2/1, $819K (-9%), 11/7/08, 6/11/09, $785K (-4%)
1601 Oak, 2/1, $899K, 4/30/09, 7/14/09, $850K (-5%)
2455 Cloverfield, 3/1.5, $949K (-14%), 11/19/08, 8/5/09, $920K (-3%)
2301 Pier, 3/1.75, $1,000K, 6/10/09, 7/16/09, $947K (-5%)
1502 Bay, 4/3, $1,089K, 6/24/09, 8/17/09, $1,088K
2414 Hill, 4/4.5, $1,879K (-2%), 5/11/09, 8/5/09, $1,795K (-4%)
2202 Marine (photo), 4/3.5, $2,295K (-15%), 3/26/09, 8/27/09, $2,000K (-13%)

Ocean Park 90405 (south of Pico, west of Lincoln)

2501 6th, 2/1, $765K (-9%), 4/4/09, 8/24/09, $750K (-2%)
2331 5th, 2/1, $899K, 4/20/09, 7/9/09, $850K (-5%)
709 Bay, 3/1.5, $928K (-7%), 8/6/08, 8/18/09, $879K (-5%)
2442 7th, 2/1.75, $1,050K, 4/15/09, 7/7/09, $1,010K (-4%)
426 Ashland, 2/1.5, $1,249K, 4/17/09, 8/14/09, $1,192K (-5%)

Santa Monica 90404 (Pico-Wilshire)

1242 Chelsea, 2/1.75, $849K (-37%), 5/18/07, 8/24/09, $739K (-13%)

Santa Monica 90403 (Wilshire-Montana)

1129 Yale, 2/1, $1,195K, 4/8/09, 7/13/09, $1,027K (-14%)
954 26th, 3/2, $1,349K (-4%), 3/5/09, 7/31/09, $1,300K (-4%)
846 Stanford, 4/2, $1,350K, 6/30/09, 8/20/09, $1,350K
2112 Washington, 3/2, $1,395K, 7/18/09, 8/25/09, $1,375K (-1%)
1135 Berkeley, 4/3, $1,500K (-39%), 4/21/06, 7/9/09, $1,500K
919 Centinela, 4/3.5, $1,999K, 6/11/09, 7/22/09, $2,050K (+3%)

Santa Monica 90402 (north of Montana)

620 22nd, 3/2, $1,795K (-25%), 10/23/08, 8/19/09, $1,625K (-9%)
636 16th, 2/2, $1,991K (-13%), 4/21/09, 8/21/09, $1,700K (-15%)
409 21st, 2/2, $2,200K, 7/2/09, 8/27/09, $1,800K (-18%)
633 11th, 5/4.5, $2,299K (-29%), 6/14/08, 8/13/09, $2,160K (-6%)
256 24th, 3/2, $2,350K (-6%), 5/18/09, 8/28/09, $2,150K (-9%)
457 24th, 5/4.5, $2,495K (-4%), 3/26/09, 7/21/09, $2,250K (-10%)
634 23rd, 3/2.5, $2,750K, 3/6/09, 7/8/09, $2,400K (-13%)
227 Alta, 4/2, $2,795K, 4/28/09, 7/21/09, $2,500K (-11%)
523 14th, 5/5.5, $2,969K, 5/26/09, 8/7/09, $3,000K (+1%)
403 20th, 5/6.5, $3,195K (-6%), 4/30/09, 8/7/09, $3,050K (-5%)
133 17th, 5/6.5, $3,695K (-23%), 10/30/08, 7/17/09, $3,498K (-5%)
311 10th, 4/4, $3,895K, 4/24/09, 7/27/09, $3,250K (-17%)
315 Palisades, 4/3.5, $5,299K (-12%), 12/9/08, 7/17/09, $4,500K (-15%)

Wistful...

2009-09-02T08:03:00.000-07:00

I've been thinking about this, and yesterday's comment got me going to write about it.

The reason the discussion has gotten boring is that during the Bubble frenzy, bubble blogs like this one and SM Distress etc were a refuge to discuss the coming bust with others who saw the handwriting on the wall. Now, even the biggest douche knows that it was all a bubble and that prices are going down hard.

Three years ago I was reading the valiant bubble bloggers documenting there was a problem, vs. the MSM and REIC who still insisted there was no such thing. (We were painfully right.)

They inspired me to start tracking inventory in Santa Monica, then to be a blogger too. From 'what should I cover?' to seeing I had readers, to having one start his own Santa Monica Distress Monitor, I loved the camaraderie among bubble bloggers and commenters, each with their own attitude.

It's also a lot of work to keep a blog going. A few reached national stature. Remember Calculated Risk's original header, above? Others I read daily are Barry Ritholtz's The Big Picture, Karl Denninger's The Market Ticker, and Charles Hugh Smith's Of Two Minds. Those guys must do nothing but write their blogs!

More wistful are those that have gone pretty dormant, but I still check back from fondness for their writing. Pete Viles gets special mention, for starting the LA Times's LA Land blog. After leaving the Times he popped up with Original LA Land, but hasn't kept it up. Keith formally ended his vivid Housing Panic and sequel Soot and Ashes, but fortunately still comes back with more.

Others I check back on include OC Renter's Bubble Markets Inventory Tracking (little new, but you can email him at ocrenter at gmail for access), Marin Real Estate Bubble, May 5th and Everything After, Neil's Real Estate Comments, and South Bay Beach Cities Housing Bubble.

So what about Westside Bubble? No, I'm not going away, but as you've seen I haven't had the time to post like I used to. My main focus lately has been limited to documenting statistics that forecast housing prices here, but I do have some current house stories on tap. And I'm sure you all follow WarChestSM's.

New, Sold, and Withdrawn/Expired listings

2009-09-01T23:46:00.000-07:00

Key observations:

* It continues to be two very different markets. Palms-Mar Vista is hot for conforming-loan properties, while most higher-priced listings sit unsold, overpriced despite reductions this year, looking for buyers.

* Santa Monica and Pacific Palisades new listings are up a little from last year, while Palms-Mar Vista is down a little.

* Pacific Palisades and Palms-Mar Vista sold listings are down from July. I expect a rebound in Mar Vista in September from a lot of current escrows there, contrasting with very little in Palisades.

* More Santa Monica listings >$3M were Withdrawn/Expired than sold.

August inventory charts

2009-08-30T17:46:00.001-07:00

The narrative has lately been that the housing market has bottomed because inventory is down. That sure isn't true in most of our Westside!

For example, Santa Monica <$3M (above), although down 12% from July, is up 18% from August 2008. Pacific Palisades <$2M is up a whopping 121% from August 2008. Only Palms-Mar Vista is down, 19%. The overall Westside is up 10% from August 2008.

Monthly inventory update

2009-08-29T22:52:00.000-07:00

8/28/09 - Santa Monica is down slightly, while Pacific Palisades and Palms-Mar Vista are up slightly for the last two weeks. More with the monthly charts.

8/14/09 - Santa Monica inventory is down for the week (but still up from last year), due mostly to only one new listing vs. more withdrawn and expired listings. Pacific Palisades and Palms-Mar Vista were pretty flat.

I forgot to note last week, low-end north of Montana 724 11th Street was withdrawn 8/4/09. This is significant, that $1,399K wasn't low enough to get a buyer.

8/7/09 - Sorry I've been too busy to post much; I'll try to catch up some today. Santa Monica and Mar Vista are a little down for the week (no new listings in the latter this week), while Pacific Palisades is a little up.

      LA County  Santa Monica Pacific Palisades  Mar Vista
               <$3M New Tot DOM<$2M New Tot DOM Tot New DOM
- -------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
J  1/30/06 27,732
F  2/28/06 29,420
M  3/31/06 31,819
A  5/ 1/06 34,032  38  33
M  6/ 2/06 37,847  56  36  38
J  6/30/06 42,317  66  40  49
J  8/ 4/06 45,315  70  34  50
A  9/ 1/06 46,781  71  27  59
S 10/ 6/06 47,369  83  25  98  71
O 11/ 3/06 45,780  80  20  91  77
N 12/ 1/06 43,103  65  18  72  96  39  20
D  1/ 5/07 35,646  54   4  60 117  33   6  71  66
- -------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
J  2/ 2/07 36,715  38  15  45 124  29  16  61  71  70
F  3/ 2/07 41,251  42  14  51 114  26  10  68  79  55  25  76
M  4/ 6/07 42,857  41  23  49 107  18   8  73 103  54  52  50
A  5/ 4/07 45,918  46  28  54  92  19   6  82  79  71  37  52
M  6/ 1/07 52,198  50  25  61  78  17  15  87  78  77  39  53
J  6/30/07 52,769  42  18  56  81  17  11  92  77  74  33  61
J  8/ 3/07 54,166  53  28  68  86  23  12  78  76  84  39  68
A  8/31/07 57,432  57  21  72  98  18   7  69  75  90  40  79
S  9/28/07 58,973  59  17  74 103  26   9  90  81  87  20  87
O 11/ 2/07 58,731  62  19  81 120  29   7 106  77  98  35  88
N 11/30/07 59,108  52  14  67 136  23  11  88  94  96  23  96
D 12/31/07 53,475  42   5  53 148  19   2  73 119  79  13 116
- -------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
J  2/ 1/08 53,722  54  16  67 157  26  16 101 118  89  36  96
F  2/29/08 53,520  50  10  68 178  29   8 108 108  88  21 103
M  3/28/08 53,566  57  17  81 171  32  14 122  92  82  22 105
A  5/ 2/08 54,098  59  14  83 159  35   7 136  93  90  33  96
M  5/30/08 53,216  56  23  79 147  34   9 142 106  91  29  89
J  6/27/08 53,058  74  28  98 131  30   6 129 107  96  26  95
J  8/ 2/08 51,906  66  14  89 125  34   8 120 136  99  35 101
A  8/29/08 50,124  62   9  79 122  29   5 108 156  91  25 104
S 10/ 3/08 48,113  58  14  82 145  41  15 128 132  84  24 109
O 10/31/08 47,017  64  22  90 131  55  18 159 126  83  21 103
N 11/28/08 45,216  64  12  91 141  54   7 151 124  73   9 130
D 12/31/08 40,810  52   3  80 171  47   5 130 134  63  10 144
- -------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
J  1/30/09 38,486  67  16  94 181  59  15 157 145  66  15 157
F  2/27/09 37,647  73  14  98 164  73  17 181 148  75  19 131
M  4/ 3/09         84  25 108 155  73  11 187 150  74  24 128
A  5/ 1/09         89  23 115 163  72  11 188 155  73  22 127
M  5/29/09         80  15 107 175  67  14 176 142  70  28 117
J  7/ 3/09         85  21 110 142  63  16 167 164  75  19 157
J  7/31/09         83  20 105 163  62   8 164 171  71  22 152
A  8/ 7/09         80   6 103 170  64   3 164 179  70   0 172
   8/14/09         76   7  97 175  62   6 165 168  71   6 163
   8/21/09         74      94      60     161      73
S  8/28/09         73  14  94 204  64  11 164 170  74  21 145
   9/ 4/09

All Westside

                 1/30     4/3    5/29    7/31    10/2   11/27
                     2/27     5/1     7/3    8/28   10/30   12/31 
Bel Air-Holmby H. 101 106 120 137 147 152 160 150
Beverly Ctr.-M.M.  58  65  78  83  72  58  73  78
Beverly Hills     109 123 134 114 107 120 135 127
B.Hills P.O.      127 147 162 153 152 159 160 160
Beverlywood Vic.   47  54  62  60  48  42  51  45
Brentwood         146 162 157 167 155 155 146 128
Cheviot-R.Park '8' 31  38  33  39  31  31  39  33
Culver City        52  44  36  33  34  41  39  26
Malibu            254 267 288 290 281 280 274 263
Malibu Beach       63  70  70  70  69  65  62  67
Marina Del Rey     32  32  28  34  34  35  30  25
Pacific Palisades 157 181 187 188 176 167 164 164
Palms-Mar Vista    66  75  74  73  70  75  71  74
Playa Del Rey      24  24  20  21  27  22  22  19
Playa Vista         6   6   5   3   5   4   5   6
Santa Monica       94  98 108 115 107 110 105  94
Sunset-Hwd.Hills  285 299 312 293 294 288 305 306
Topanga            70  73  71  73  77  75  83  77
Venice            104 121 119 115 111 102 110 101
W.Hollywood Vic.   61  58  50  56  51  48  50  58
West L.A.          20  30  32  25  23  17  22  27
Westchester        53  60  57  42  43  47  56  46
Westwood-Cent.City 67  72  78  78  82  67  71  59
                  ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ 
2009 Total       2027    2281    2196    2233
                     2205    2262    2160    2133
2008 Total       1509    1694    1917    2019    2006    2128
                     1524    1846    1974    1942    2085    1822
2007 Total       1282    1274    1457    1522    1671    1600
                     1308    1377    1483    1551    1731    1329

Notes

June S&P/Case-Shiller

2009-08-28T23:30:00.000-07:00

Catching up with Tuesday's June 2009 S&P/Case-Shiller update, Los Angeles peculiarly showed a drop of 1.5% for the Low Tier at the same time as the Middle Tier and High Tier rose slightly. Not that any of these say our own Westside prices are doing anything but continuing to fall.

Overall Los Angeles (including Orange County) is down 41.3% from its September 2006 peak, back to August 2003 levels.

By month that's up 1% from May; down 0.1% from April, 0.9% from March, 1.4% from February, 2.0% from January, 2.8% from December, 2.5% from November, 2.2% from October, 2.6% from September, 2.5% from August, 1.8% from July, 1.6% from June, 1.4% from May, 1.9% from April, 2.2% from March, 3.6% from February, 4.3% from January, 3.7% from December 2007, 3.6% from November, 3.6% from October, 2.1% from September and 1.3% from August. The national (orange line, their original 10-city Composite) index is down 32.3% from its peak in June 2006.

Besides the original city index they have each city broken into Low, Middle, and High tiers (Under $278,293, $278,293 - $441,972, and Over $441,972; updated for June). Los Angeles' Low Tier rose the most and has fallen back the most so far from its November 2006 peak, now 56.5%.

The High Tier rose the least and plateaued for awhile before falling more steeply, now 29.6% from its June 2006 peak. As noted above, it was up 1.6% from May, a return to its January 2009 level (and February 2004).

July DataQuick

2009-08-20T19:51:00.000-07:00

More significant than Tuesday's latest DataQuick numbers for July is to comment on the press reaction and apply it to our Westside area.

Los Angeles County's median barely rose, from $320K to $321K, now down 41.6% for Los Angeles County from its peak in August 2007. Volumes were up 23% year-to-year from July 2008. (June DataQuick post)

That left Los Angeles County prices at May 2003, Orange County at June 2003, and Ventura County at April 2003. San Diego County advanced one month to June 2002.

The L.A. Times story about it yesterday appropriately cites a number of reservations about recovery anytime soon. In addition, noteworthy to the Westside it cited:

Analysts say the recent increase in the median price also reflects the fact that more expensive homes are selling again after a long drought. In many affluent neighborhoods, real estate agents say, owners are finally accepting the diminished value of their properties and pricing their homes to sell.

That is beginning to attract more buyers. Malibu, Beverly Hills, Brentwood and Del Mar all posted July sales increases over the prior year.

Santa Monica and Mar Vista July sales were below a year ago, and Pacific Palisades' one-month spike was unsustainable, leaving little in escrow for August closings. Inventories remain high. I expect prices to continue to fall here.

New low-end comp north of Montana?

2009-08-17T12:39:00.000-07:00

Never listed in the MLS, this recently popped up in comp lists: the 4 bed / 2 bath house at 454 9th Street (Zillow link; click photo to enlarge), sold 6/18/09 for $1,402K.

It's looked like a fixer, although big at 2,575 SF on a 7,500 SF lot. But from this current photo, the new owner is painting the exterior, certainly not bulldozing it.

Is this a new low comp, or a sweetheart deal? My Google search on the address didn't find any indication of it being marketed in other ways. Anyone have any inside scoop?

Updated: Per a comment and the County, this sale price may have actually been $1,575.5K. Still looking for comments.

Weekly inventory update

2009-08-15T13:38:00.000-07:00

8/14/09 - Santa Monica inventory is down for the week (but still up from last year), due mostly to only one new listing vs. more withdrawn and expired listings. Pacific Palisades and Palms-Mar Vista were pretty flat.

I forgot to note last week, low-end north of Montana 724 11th Street was withdrawn 8/4/09. This is significant, that $1,399K wasn't low enough to get a buyer.

8/7/09 - Sorry I've been too busy to post much; I'll try to catch up some today. Santa Monica and Mar Vista are a little down for the week (no new listings in the latter this week), while Pacific Palisades is a little up.

      LA County  Santa Monica Pacific Palisades  Mar Vista
               <$3M New Tot DOM<$2M New Tot DOM Tot New DOM
- -------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
J  1/30/06 27,732
F  2/28/06 29,420
M  3/31/06 31,819
A  5/ 1/06 34,032  38  33
M  6/ 2/06 37,847  56  36  38
J  6/30/06 42,317  66  40  49
J  8/ 4/06 45,315  70  34  50
A  9/ 1/06 46,781  71  27  59
S 10/ 6/06 47,369  83  25  98  71
O 11/ 3/06 45,780  80  20  91  77
N 12/ 1/06 43,103  65  18  72  96  39  20
D  1/ 5/07 35,646  54   4  60 117  33   6  71  66
- -------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
J  2/ 2/07 36,715  38  15  45 124  29  16  61  71  70
F  3/ 2/07 41,251  42  14  51 114  26  10  68  79  55  25  76
M  4/ 6/07 42,857  41  23  49 107  18   8  73 103  54  52  50
A  5/ 4/07 45,918  46  28  54  92  19   6  82  79  71  37  52
M  6/ 1/07 52,198  50  25  61  78  17  15  87  78  77  39  53
J  6/30/07 52,769  42  18  56  81  17  11  92  77  74  33  61
J  8/ 3/07 54,166  53  28  68  86  23  12  78  76  84  39  68
A  8/31/07 57,432  57  21  72  98  18   7  69  75  90  40  79
S  9/28/07 58,973  59  17  74 103  26   9  90  81  87  20  87
O 11/ 2/07 58,731  62  19  81 120  29   7 106  77  98  35  88
N 11/30/07 59,108  52  14  67 136  23  11  88  94  96  23  96
D 12/31/07 53,475  42   5  53 148  19   2  73 119  79  13 116
- -------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
J  2/ 1/08 53,722  54  16  67 157  26  16 101 118  89  36  96
F  2/29/08 53,520  50  10  68 178  29   8 108 108  88  21 103
M  3/28/08 53,566  57  17  81 171  32  14 122  92  82  22 105
A  5/ 2/08 54,098  59  14  83 159  35   7 136  93  90  33  96
M  5/30/08 53,216  56  23  79 147  34   9 142 106  91  29  89
J  6/27/08 53,058  74  28  98 131  30   6 129 107  96  26  95
J  8/ 2/08 51,906  66  14  89 125  34   8 120 136  99  35 101
A  8/29/08 50,124  62   9  79 122  29   5 108 156  91  25 104
S 10/ 3/08 48,113  58  14  82 145  41  15 128 132  84  24 109
O 10/31/08 47,017  64  22  90 131  55  18 159 126  83  21 103
N 11/28/08 45,216  64  12  91 141  54   7 151 124  73   9 130
D 12/31/08 40,810  52   3  80 171  47   5 130 134  63  10 144
- -------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
J  1/30/09 38,486  67  16  94 181  59  15 157 145  66  15 157
F  2/27/09 37,647  73  14  98 164  73  17 181 148  75  19 131
M  4/ 3/09         84  25 108 155  73  11 187 150  74  24 128
A  5/ 1/09         89  23 115 163  72  11 188 155  73  22 127
M  5/29/09         80  15 107 175  67  14 176 142  70  28 117
J  7/ 3/09         85  21 110 142  63  16 167 164  75  19 157
J  7/31/09         83  20 105 163  62   8 164 171  71  22 152
A  8/ 7/09         80   6 103 170  64   3 164 179  70   0 172
   8/14/09         76   7  97 175  62   6 165 168  71   6 163
   8/21/09

5th Street, Ocean Park

2009-08-09T15:11:00.000-07:00

These two cute, old Ocean Park houses at 2327 (above, click all to enlarge) and 2331 (below) 5th Street in Ocean Park have been on and off the market since July 2007, available together or separately. The first originally sought $1,600K, now down to $1,199K, for this 2 bed / 1 bath 1,064 SF house on a 6,996 SF lot, described as:

"1913 California Craftsman. 2 beds with built-ins, fireplace, lots of charm in this major fixer/tear down in great Ocean Park location. Property sold in "AS IS" condition - no termite, no repairs. Property zoned OP2. Can rebuild, remodel or develop. large lot, approx. 6996 s.f. With 4 single garages. Come see this interesting project."

The second one, on the same-sized corner lot across from Los Amigos Park, was last asking $899K and sold 7/9/09 for $850K.

Ever wonder what it's like inside the first bungalow? What would you be taking on if you bought it to live in? You could all it very original, as in original floors, walls, fixtures, cabinets, shown in these interior photos of a bedroom and the kitchen. Not what I'm in the mood for now, but I hope someone is, rather than bulldoze it.

Oh, and the next one north, a designated landmark at 2323 5th (below) was also for sale. Originally listed 2/5/09 for $2,099K, as of yesterday its description said, "SELLER WILL REVIEW OFFERS: $1,300,000 to $1,650,000." But today it's Expired with a last price of $1,800K. Whatever.

New, Sold, and Withdrawn/Expired listings

2009-08-09T14:25:00.000-07:00

The main news in these charts is a one-month July spike in Pacific Palisades sales (closed escrow in July) - that won't be repeated in August with little left in the pipeline - and the drop from Mar Vista's June sales frenzy.

Westside inventory charts

2009-08-09T14:14:00.000-07:00

Higher-priced Westside inventory held up in August; only lower-priced Palms-Mar Vista reflects the flurry of conforming-loan sales. Note especially the monthly uptick in the Westside total (bottom chart).

A common message is, now that prices have fallen, sales are up, and reduced inventories are a sign that the market has hit bottom and is improving. Not on the Westside! Even though prices are down some 20-25%, few higher-priced Westside listings are selling, inventories are still high, and prices have rather more to fall.

Weekly inventory update

2009-08-09T13:59:00.000-07:00

8/7/09 - Sorry I've been too busy to post much; I'll try to catch up some today. Santa Monica and Mar Vista are a little down for the week (no new listings in the latter this week), while Pacific Palisades is a little up.

      LA County  Santa Monica Pacific Palisades  Mar Vista
               <$3M New Tot DOM<$2M New Tot DOM Tot New DOM
- -------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
J  1/30/06 27,732
F  2/28/06 29,420
M  3/31/06 31,819
A  5/ 1/06 34,032  38  33
M  6/ 2/06 37,847  56  36  38
J  6/30/06 42,317  66  40  49
J  8/ 4/06 45,315  70  34  50
A  9/ 1/06 46,781  71  27  59
S 10/ 6/06 47,369  83  25  98  71
O 11/ 3/06 45,780  80  20  91  77
N 12/ 1/06 43,103  65  18  72  96  39  20
D  1/ 5/07 35,646  54   4  60 117  33   6  71  66
- -------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
J  2/ 2/07 36,715  38  15  45 124  29  16  61  71  70
F  3/ 2/07 41,251  42  14  51 114  26  10  68  79  55  25  76
M  4/ 6/07 42,857  41  23  49 107  18   8  73 103  54  52  50
A  5/ 4/07 45,918  46  28  54  92  19   6  82  79  71  37  52
M  6/ 1/07 52,198  50  25  61  78  17  15  87  78  77  39  53
J  6/30/07 52,769  42  18  56  81  17  11  92  77  74  33  61
J  8/ 3/07 54,166  53  28  68  86  23  12  78  76  84  39  68
A  8/31/07 57,432  57  21  72  98  18   7  69  75  90  40  79
S  9/28/07 58,973  59  17  74 103  26   9  90  81  87  20  87
O 11/ 2/07 58,731  62  19  81 120  29   7 106  77  98  35  88
N 11/30/07 59,108  52  14  67 136  23  11  88  94  96  23  96
D 12/31/07 53,475  42   5  53 148  19   2  73 119  79  13 116
- -------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
J  2/ 1/08 53,722  54  16  67 157  26  16 101 118  89  36  96
F  2/29/08 53,520  50  10  68 178  29   8 108 108  88  21 103
M  3/28/08 53,566  57  17  81 171  32  14 122  92  82  22 105
A  5/ 2/08 54,098  59  14  83 159  35   7 136  93  90  33  96
M  5/30/08 53,216  56  23  79 147  34   9 142 106  91  29  89
J  6/27/08 53,058  74  28  98 131  30   6 129 107  96  26  95
J  8/ 2/08 51,906  66  14  89 125  34   8 120 136  99  35 101
A  8/29/08 50,124  62   9  79 122  29   5 108 156  91  25 104
S 10/ 3/08 48,113  58  14  82 145  41  15 128 132  84  24 109
O 10/31/08 47,017  64  22  90 131  55  18 159 126  83  21 103
N 11/28/08 45,216  64  12  91 141  54   7 151 124  73   9 130
D 12/31/08 40,810  52   3  80 171  47   5 130 134  63  10 144
- -------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
J  1/30/09 38,486  67  16  94 181  59  15 157 145  66  15 157
F  2/27/09 37,647  73  14  98 164  73  17 181 148  75  19 131
M  4/ 3/09         84  25 108 155  73  11 187 150  74  24 128
A  5/ 1/09         89  23 115 163  72  11 188 155  73  22 127
M  5/29/09         80  15 107 175  67  14 176 142  70  28 117
J  7/ 3/09         85  21 110 142  63  16 167 164  75  19 157
J  7/31/09         83  20 105 163  62   8 164 171  71  22 152
A  8/ 7/09         80   6 103 170  64   3 164 179  70   0 172
   8/14/09

Monthly inventory update

2009-08-02T22:37:00.000-07:00

7/31/09 - Defying media stories, the Westside total inventory was up for the month. Santa Monica and Pacific Palisades were flat to slightly down for the week and month, and Mar Vista was a little down for both. More in upcoming charts and sales details.

7/24/09 - Santa Monica and Pacific Palisades were pretty flat; Mar Vista dropped from a number of new escrows on recent listings. July month-end comes next weekend.

7/17/09 - Santa Monica is down, Pacific Palisades is flat, and Mar Vista is up for the week. Guess the flurry of buying in MV is over.

7/10/09 - All are up for the week, especially Palms-Mar Vista.

      LA County  Santa Monica Pacific Palisades  Mar Vista
               <$3M New Tot DOM<$2M New Tot DOM Tot New DOM
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 1/30/06 27,732
 2/28/06 29,420
 3/31/06 31,819
 5/ 1/06 34,032  38  33
 6/ 2/06 37,847  56  36  38
 6/30/06 42,317  66  40  49
 8/ 4/06 45,315  70  34  50
 9/ 1/06 46,781  71  27  59
10/ 6/06 47,369  83  25  98  71
11/ 3/06 45,780  80  20  91  77
12/ 1/06 43,103  65  18  72  96  39  20
 1/ 5/07 35,646  54   4  60 117  33   6  71  66
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 2/ 2/07 36,715  38  15  45 124  29  16  61  71  70
 3/ 2/07 41,251  42  14  51 114  26  10  68  79  55  25  76
 4/ 6/07 42,857  41  23  49 107  18   8  73 103  54  52  50
 5/ 4/07 45,918  46  28  54  92  19   6  82  79  71  37  52
 6/ 1/07 52,198  50  25  61  78  17  15  87  78  77  39  53
 6/30/07 52,769  42  18  56  81  17  11  92  77  74  33  61
 8/ 3/07 54,166  53  28  68  86  23  12  78  76  84  39  68
 8/31/07 57,432  57  21  72  98  18   7  69  75  90  40  79
 9/28/07 58,973  59  17  74 103  26   9  90  81  87  20  87
11/ 2/07 58,731  62  19  81 120  29   7 106  77  98  35  88
11/30/07 59,108  52  14  67 136  23  11  88  94  96  23  96
12/31/07 53,475  42   5  53 148  19   2  73 119  79  13 116
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 2/ 1/08 53,722  54  16  67 157  26  16 101 118  89  36  96
 2/29/08 53,520  50  10  68 178  29   8 108 108  88  21 103
 3/28/08 53,566  57  17  81 171  32  14 122  92  82  22 105
 5/ 2/08 54,098  59  14  83 159  35   7 136  93  90  33  96
 5/30/08 53,216  56  23  79 147  34   9 142 106  91  29  89
 6/27/08 53,058  74  28  98 131  30   6 129 107  96  26  95
 8/ 2/08 51,906  66  14  89 125  34   8 120 136  99  35 101
 8/29/08 50,124  62   9  79 122  29   5 108 156  91  25 104
10/ 3/08 48,113  58  14  82 145  41  15 128 132  84  24 109
10/31/08 47,017  64  22  90 131  55  18 159 126  83  21 103
11/28/08 45,216  64  12  91 141  54   7 151 124  73   9 130
12/31/08 40,810  52   3  80 171  47   5 130 134  63  10 144
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 1/30/09 38,486  67  16  94 181  59  15 157 145  66  15 157
 2/27/09 37,647  73  14  98 164  73  17 181 148  75  19 131
 4/ 3/09         84  25 108 155  73  11 187 150  74  24 128
 5/ 1/09         89  23 115 163  72  11 188 155  73  22 127
 5/29/09         80  15 107 175  67  14 176 142  70  28 117
 7/ 3/09         85  21 110 142  63  16 167 164  75  19 157
 7/10/09         87   8 113 160  65   3 166 167  81   9 147
 7/17/09         82  12 105 158  65   5 168 173  87  15 128
 7/24/09         83  17 105 165  63   7 168 180  75  18 142
 7/31/09         83  19 105 163  62   8 164 171  71  21 152
 8/ 7/09

All Westside

            1/30     4/3    5/29    7/31    10/2   11/27
                2/27     5/1     7/3    8/28   10/30   12/31 
B.Air-H.Hls. 101 106 120 137 147 152 160
Bv.Ctr.-M.M.  58  65  78  83  72  58  73
Beverly Hls. 109 123 134 114 107 120 135
B.H. P.O.    127 147 162 153 152 159 160
Bvywd.Vic.    47  54  62  60  48  42  51
Brentwood    146 162 157 167 155 155 146
Chv.-R.Pk.'8' 31  38  33  39  31  31  39
Culver City   52  44  36  33  34  41  39
Malibu       254 267 288 290 281 280 274
Malibu Beach  63  70  70  70  69  65  62
Marina D.Rey  32  32  28  34  34  35  30
P.Palisades  157 181 187 188 176 167 164
Palms-M.Vista 66  75  74  73  70  75  71
Playa Del Rey 24  24  20  21  27  22  22
Playa Vista    6   6   5   3   5   4   5
Santa Monica  94  98 108 115 107 110 105
Sunset-Hwd.H.285 299 312 293 294 288 305
Topanga       70  73  71  73  77  75  83
Venice       104 121 119 115 111 102 110
W.Hwood.Vic.  61  58  50  56  51  48  50
West L.A.     20  30  32  25  23  17  22
Westchester   53  60  57  42  43  47  56
Wwood.-C.City 67  72  78  78  82  67  71
             ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ 
2009 Total  2027    2281    2196    2233
                2205    2262    2160
2008 Total  1509    1694    1917    2019    2006    2128
                1524    1846    1974    1942    2085    1822
2007 Total  1282    1274    1457    1522    1671    1600
                1308    1377    1483    1551    1731    1329

Notes

May S&P/Case-Shiller

2009-07-28T09:24:00.000-07:00

The news with today's May 2009 S&P/Case-Shiller update is that some cities, and Los Angeles' High Tier, have risen slightly. But see Calculated Risk's comments about seasonality - we know that prices rise most in the second quarter of the year - before calling a turnaround.

Overall Los Angeles (including Orange County) is still down again, 41.9% from its September 2006 peak, back to July 2003 levels.

By month that's 0.1% from April, 0.9% from March, 1.4% from February, 2.0% from January, 2.8% from December, 2.5% from November, 2.2% from October, 2.6% from September, 2.5% from August, 1.8% from July, 1.6% from June, 1.4% from May, 1.9% from April, 2.2% from March, 3.6% from February, 4.3% from January, 3.7% from December 2007, 3.6% from November, 3.6% from October, 2.1% from September and 1.3% from August. The national (orange line, their original 10-city Composite) index is down 33.3% from its peak in June 2006.

Besides the original city index they have each city broken into Low, Middle, and High tiers (Under $277,621, $277,621 - $433,758, and Over $433,758; updated for May). Los Angeles' Low Tier rose the most and has fallen back the most so far from its November 2006 peak, now 55.8%.

The High Tier rose the least and plateaued for awhile before falling more steeply, now 30.8% from its June 2006 peak. As noted above, it was up 0.6% from April, a return to its March 2009 level (and January 2004). This is consistent locally with the flurry of sales in Mar Vista but continued frozen market for higher-priced houses.

Weekly inventory update

2009-07-27T12:16:00.000-07:00

7/24/09 - Santa Monica and Pacific Palisades were pretty flat; Mar Vista dropped from a number of new escrows on recent listings. July month-end comes next weekend.

7/17/09 - Santa Monica is down, Pacific Palisades is flat, and Mar Vista is up for the week. Guess the flurry of buying in MV is over.

7/10/09 - All are up for the week, especially Palms-Mar Vista.

      LA County  Santa Monica Pacific Palisades  Mar Vista
               <$3M New Tot DOM<$2M New Tot DOM Tot New DOM
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 1/30/06 27,732
 2/28/06 29,420
 3/31/06 31,819
 5/ 1/06 34,032  38  33
 6/ 2/06 37,847  56  36  38
 6/30/06 42,317  66  40  49
 8/ 4/06 45,315  70  34  50
 9/ 1/06 46,781  71  27  59
10/ 6/06 47,369  83  25  98  71
11/ 3/06 45,780  80  20  91  77
12/ 1/06 43,103  65  18  72  96  39  20
 1/ 5/07 35,646  54   4  60 117  33   6  71  66
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 2/ 2/07 36,715  38  15  45 124  29  16  61  71  70
 3/ 2/07 41,251  42  14  51 114  26  10  68  79  55  25  76
 4/ 6/07 42,857  41  23  49 107  18   8  73 103  54  52  50
 5/ 4/07 45,918  46  28  54  92  19   6  82  79  71  37  52
 6/ 1/07 52,198  50  25  61  78  17  15  87  78  77  39  53
 6/30/07 52,769  42  18  56  81  17  11  92  77  74  33  61
 8/ 3/07 54,166  53  28  68  86  23  12  78  76  84  39  68
 8/31/07 57,432  57  21  72  98  18   7  69  75  90  40  79
 9/28/07 58,973  59  17  74 103  26   9  90  81  87  20  87
11/ 2/07 58,731  62  19  81 120  29   7 106  77  98  35  88
11/30/07 59,108  52  14  67 136  23  11  88  94  96  23  96
12/31/07 53,475  42   5  53 148  19   2  73 119  79  13 116
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 2/ 1/08 53,722  54  16  67 157  26  16 101 118  89  36  96
 2/29/08 53,520  50  10  68 178  29   8 108 108  88  21 103
 3/28/08 53,566  57  17  81 171  32  14 122  92  82  22 105
 5/ 2/08 54,098  59  14  83 159  35   7 136  93  90  33  96
 5/30/08 53,216  56  23  79 147  34   9 142 106  91  29  89
 6/27/08 53,058  74  28  98 131  30   6 129 107  96  26  95
 8/ 2/08 51,906  66  14  89 125  34   8 120 136  99  35 101
 8/29/08 50,124  62   9  79 122  29   5 108 156  91  25 104
10/ 3/08 48,113  58  14  82 145  41  15 128 132  84  24 109
10/31/08 47,017  64  22  90 131  55  18 159 126  83  21 103
11/28/08 45,216  64  12  91 141  54   7 151 124  73   9 130
12/31/08 40,810  52   3  80 171  47   5 130 134  63  10 144
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 1/30/09 38,486  67  16  94 181  59  15 157 145  66  15 157
 2/27/09 37,647  73  14  98 164  73  17 181 148  75  19 131
 4/ 3/09         84  25 108 155  73  11 187 150  74  24 128
 5/ 1/09         89  23 115 163  72  11 188 155  73  22 127
 5/29/09         80  15 107 175  67  14 176 142  70  28 117
 7/ 3/09         85  21 110 142  63  16 167 164  75  19 157
 7/10/09         87   8 113 160  65   3 166 167  81   9 147
 7/17/09         82  12 105 158  65   5 168 173  87  15 128
 7/24/09         83  17 105 165  63   7 168 180  75  18 142
 7/31/09

"Borderline" Ocean Park

2009-07-24T13:13:00.000-07:00

Here are some interesting current samples from what's called the Borderline Neighborhood of Ocean Park, the southern edge next to Venice, west of Lincoln Blvd.

First is 606 Marine St. (photo above, click to enlarge), a 2 bedroom / 1 bath 686 SF house (built in 1912) on a 3,197 SF lot, listed 6/2/09 for $699K.

"REDUCED! Owner is motivated...make your offer! Totally vacant new owner can set the rental price for this 1 bed/1bath DUPLEX on great Santa Monica area; walk to the beach, to the Main St. Farmer's Market, the shops. Bungalows need work or just build your dream home!"

Its next-door neighbor on the right (the pink one), 604 Marine St., 1 bed / 1 bath, 588 SF on 3,192 SF lot, was listed from 2/11/09 to 7/9/09 for $799K before being withdrawn.

"Cozy cottage in great location with Santa Monica schools. Needs cosmetic work. Guest house in back. Does not show well do to several people living on the property. Lowest price in Santa Moncia west of Lincoln. No brokers opens and showings by appt.only with 24 hours notice. Property will be delivered vacant. Great buy!!!!"

Guess not!!!! Did the newer listing get its price right at $100K less, for a bedroom and 100 SF more, and apparently in better condition?

Next is 740 Navy St., a 2 bed / 1 bath 1,264 SF house (originally built in 1920) on one-and-a-half 25 x 80 foot lots (2,997 SF), listed 6/22/09 for $688K and quickly in escrow on 7/9/09.

"Charming, very livable 1920's beach cottage. Same owner for 60+ yrs. Bathroom remodeled with corian counter tops and has separate tub and shower. Kitchen also redone about 20yrs ago. Owner added family room with river rock fireplace. A true diamond in the rough! Trust sale that does not require court approval. This is the quintessential condo alternative!"

Finally is 809 Ozone St. a 3 bed / 2.5 bath 2,161 SF house (built in 1991) on a 2,666 SF lot, listed 7/8/09 for $1,370K. That seems pretty steep for the second house from the car lot on the corner of Lincoln Blvd.

"Stunning Architectural 2-sty 1991 home close to beach; Arte Deco, Feng Shui, Style, Light & Space. LR: HI ceiling, glass block wndw, slate FP & hwd flrs. 1st flr FDR w/crystal chandelier, den, ofc, & lndry w/wash/dryer. Huge kit w/bkfst bar, indoor gas BBQ & French drs to landscaped patio, fountain. Lg Mstr Ste has private sundeck, walk-in closet. Mstr BA; raised sunken tub & lg shower. 2 BDs up share full BA. Home double insulated; close door & escape; serene. Lg 1 car gar + permit parking."

Weekly inventory update

2009-07-20T15:23:00.000-07:00

7/17/09 - Santa Monica is down, Pacific Palisades is flat, and Mar Vista is up for the week. Guess the flurry of buying in MV is over.

7/10/09 - All are up for the week, especially Palms-Mar Vista.

      LA County  Santa Monica Pacific Palisades  Mar Vista
               <$3M New Tot DOM<$2M New Tot DOM Tot New DOM
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 1/30/06 27,732
 2/28/06 29,420
 3/31/06 31,819
 5/ 1/06 34,032  38  33
 6/ 2/06 37,847  56  36  38
 6/30/06 42,317  66  40  49
 8/ 4/06 45,315  70  34  50
 9/ 1/06 46,781  71  27  59
10/ 6/06 47,369  83  25  98  71
11/ 3/06 45,780  80  20  91  77
12/ 1/06 43,103  65  18  72  96  39  20
 1/ 5/07 35,646  54   4  60 117  33   6  71  66
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 2/ 2/07 36,715  38  15  45 124  29  16  61  71  70
 3/ 2/07 41,251  42  14  51 114  26  10  68  79  55  25  76
 4/ 6/07 42,857  41  23  49 107  18   8  73 103  54  52  50
 5/ 4/07 45,918  46  28  54  92  19   6  82  79  71  37  52
 6/ 1/07 52,198  50  25  61  78  17  15  87  78  77  39  53
 6/30/07 52,769  42  18  56  81  17  11  92  77  74  33  61
 8/ 3/07 54,166  53  28  68  86  23  12  78  76  84  39  68
 8/31/07 57,432  57  21  72  98  18   7  69  75  90  40  79
 9/28/07 58,973  59  17  74 103  26   9  90  81  87  20  87
11/ 2/07 58,731  62  19  81 120  29   7 106  77  98  35  88
11/30/07 59,108  52  14  67 136  23  11  88  94  96  23  96
12/31/07 53,475  42   5  53 148  19   2  73 119  79  13 116
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 2/ 1/08 53,722  54  16  67 157  26  16 101 118  89  36  96
 2/29/08 53,520  50  10  68 178  29   8 108 108  88  21 103
 3/28/08 53,566  57  17  81 171  32  14 122  92  82  22 105
 5/ 2/08 54,098  59  14  83 159  35   7 136  93  90  33  96
 5/30/08 53,216  56  23  79 147  34   9 142 106  91  29  89
 6/27/08 53,058  74  28  98 131  30   6 129 107  96  26  95
 8/ 2/08 51,906  66  14  89 125  34   8 120 136  99  35 101
 8/29/08 50,124  62   9  79 122  29   5 108 156  91  25 104
10/ 3/08 48,113  58  14  82 145  41  15 128 132  84  24 109
10/31/08 47,017  64  22  90 131  55  18 159 126  83  21 103
11/28/08 45,216  64  12  91 141  54   7 151 124  73   9 130
12/31/08 40,810  52   3  80 171  47   5 130 134  63  10 144
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 1/30/09 38,486  67  16  94 181  59  15 157 145  66  15 157
 2/27/09 37,647  73  14  98 164  73  17 181 148  75  19 131
 4/ 3/09         84  25 108 155  73  11 187 150  74  24 128
 5/ 1/09         89  23 115 163  72  11 188 155  73  22 127
 5/29/09         80  15 107 175  67  14 176 142  70  28 117
 7/ 3/09         85  21 110 142  63  16 167 164  75  19 157
 7/10/09         87   8 113 160  65   3 166 167  81   9 147
 7/17/09         82  12 105 158  65   5 168 173  87  15 128
 7/24/09

June DataQuick

2009-07-16T09:35:00.000-07:00

After five flat months DataQuick's Los Angeles County median price ticked up for June. Which as we know has little relationship with Westside prices beginning to fall, and as Calculated Risk wrote, "Note: Ignore the median home price during periods of rapidly changing mix."

Median prices are down 41.8% for Los Angeles County from its peak in August 2007. Volumes were up 34% year-to-year from June 2008. (
May DataQuick post)

I wonder if this is indicative of the recent but now subsided flurry of lower-priced sales in Mar Vista and the typical peak of sales and price jumps in the second quarter of the year, not a longer trend.

This leaves Los Angeles County prices at May 2003. For the other three counties, Orange County is at June 2003, Ventura County at April 2003, and San Diego at May 2002.

Weekly inventory update

2009-07-13T23:21:00.000-07:00

7/10/09 - All are up for the week, especially Palms-Mar Vista.

      LA County  Santa Monica Pacific Palisades  Mar Vista
               <$3M New Tot DOM<$2M New Tot DOM Tot New DOM
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 1/30/06 27,732
 2/28/06 29,420
 3/31/06 31,819
 5/ 1/06 34,032  38  33
 6/ 2/06 37,847  56  36  38
 6/30/06 42,317  66  40  49
 8/ 4/06 45,315  70  34  50
 9/ 1/06 46,781  71  27  59
10/ 6/06 47,369  83  25  98  71
11/ 3/06 45,780  80  20  91  77
12/ 1/06 43,103  65  18  72  96  39  20
 1/ 5/07 35,646  54   4  60 117  33   6  71  66
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 2/ 2/07 36,715  38  15  45 124  29  16  61  71  70
 3/ 2/07 41,251  42  14  51 114  26  10  68  79  55  25  76
 4/ 6/07 42,857  41  23  49 107  18   8  73 103  54  52  50
 5/ 4/07 45,918  46  28  54  92  19   6  82  79  71  37  52
 6/ 1/07 52,198  50  25  61  78  17  15  87  78  77  39  53
 6/30/07 52,769  42  18  56  81  17  11  92  77  74  33  61
 8/ 3/07 54,166  53  28  68  86  23  12  78  76  84  39  68
 8/31/07 57,432  57  21  72  98  18   7  69  75  90  40  79
 9/28/07 58,973  59  17  74 103  26   9  90  81  87  20  87
11/ 2/07 58,731  62  19  81 120  29   7 106  77  98  35  88
11/30/07 59,108  52  14  67 136  23  11  88  94  96  23  96
12/31/07 53,475  42   5  53 148  19   2  73 119  79  13 116
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 2/ 1/08 53,722  54  16  67 157  26  16 101 118  89  36  96
 2/29/08 53,520  50  10  68 178  29   8 108 108  88  21 103
 3/28/08 53,566  57  17  81 171  32  14 122  92  82  22 105
 5/ 2/08 54,098  59  14  83 159  35   7 136  93  90  33  96
 5/30/08 53,216  56  23  79 147  34   9 142 106  91  29  89
 6/27/08 53,058  74  28  98 131  30   6 129 107  96  26  95
 8/ 2/08 51,906  66  14  89 125  34   8 120 136  99  35 101
 8/29/08 50,124  62   9  79 122  29   5 108 156  91  25 104
10/ 3/08 48,113  58  14  82 145  41  15 128 132  84  24 109
10/31/08 47,017  64  22  90 131  55  18 159 126  83  21 103
11/28/08 45,216  64  12  91 141  54   7 151 124  73   9 130
12/31/08 40,810  52   3  80 171  47   5 130 134  63  10 144
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 1/30/09 38,486  67  16  94 181  59  15 157 145  66  15 157
 2/27/09 37,647  73  14  98 164  73  17 181 148  75  19 131
 4/ 3/09         84  25 108 155  73  11 187 150  74  24 128
 5/ 1/09         89  23 115 163  72  11 188 155  73  22 127
 5/29/09         80  15 107 175  67  14 176 142  70  28 117
 7/ 3/09         85  21 110 142  63  16 167 164  75  19 157
 7/10/09         87   8 113 160  65   3 166 167  81   9 147
 7/17/09

1H SM and PP sales update

2009-07-07T14:43:00.000-07:00

To wrap up the first half of 2009, here are sales closed in Santa Monica and Pacific Palisades since our May 6 update. Listing dates before 2009 and reductions over 10% are in red.

Santa Monica Distress Monitor has been doing a great job featuring individual listings. I've tried to link those, plus a couple featured here.

Address, bed/bath, current price (-% from orig.), orig.list date, sale date, sale price (-% from last list price)

Sunset Park 90405 (south of Pico, east of Lincoln)

1128 Marine, 2/1, $659K (-9%), 3/7/09, 5/21/09, $675K (+2%)
1736 Oak, 3/2, $990K (-7%), 7/31/08, 6/12/09, $885K (-11%)

2103 Hill, 3/2, $1,050K (-4%), 3/18/09, 7/1/09, $1,000K (-5%)
2450 Euclid, 4/3, $1,048K (-24%), 9/26/08, 5/12/09, $1,068K (+2%)
2328 30th, 3/2.75, $1,099K, 5/11/09, 6/26/09, $1,087K (-1%)
2424 31st, 3/2, $1,099K (-10%), 11/24/08, 6/23/09, $1,050K (-4%)
1421 Grant, 4/2.75, $1,299K, 3/11/09, 5/15/09, $1,225K (-6%)
2659 33rd, 3/3, $1,395K (-10%), 2/27/09, 6/30/09, $1,350K (-3%)
2625 29th, 4/3, $1,595K, 4/20/09, 6/9/09, $1,500K (-6%)
1214 Pearl, 4/4.5, $1,785K (-16%), 10/8/08, 7/1/09, $1,700K (-5%)
1651 Ashland, 3/3, $2,150K, 3/5/09, 6/29/09, $1,875K (-13%)

Ocean Park 90405 (south of Pico, west of Lincoln)

629 Pico Place, 2/3, $1,250K (-47%), 7/25/08, 5/19/09, $1,250K

Santa Monica 90404 (Pico-Wilshire)

2209 Arizona, 2/1, $650K, 2/27/09, 6/19/09, $660K (+2%)

Santa Monica 90403 (Wilshire-Montana)

1701 California, 3/2, $1,085K, 3/22/09, 5/15/09, $1,085K
1024 Princeton, 2/1.5, $1,385K (-13%), 6/27/08, 7/2/09, $1,250K (-10%)
1126 Harvard, 3/1.75, $1,495K (-9%), 1/26/09, 6/3/09, $1,410K (-6%)
1038 Franklin, 5/3.5, $2,139K (-26%), 5/29/08, 6/9/09, $2,000K (-6%)

858 25th, 4/3, $2,250K, 4/17/09, 5/28/09, $2,150K (-4%)
1024 23rd, 4/4.5, $2,595K (-10%), 10/8/08, 5/22/09, $2,425K (-7%)

Santa Monica 90402 (north of Montana)

720 17th, 1/1, $1,399K (-22%), 3/5/09, 6/26/09, $1,400K
320 9th (photo), 3/2, $1,699K (-19%), 11/12/08, 5/20/09, $1,600K (-6%)
415 17th, 3/3, $1,799K (-20%), 12/4/08, 6/15/09, $1,600K (-11%)
716 18th, 3/2, $1,875K, 3/4/09, 5/29/09, $1,780K (-5%)

403 22nd, 3/2.5, $2,100K (-12%), 2/3/09, 5/15/09, $2,050K (-2%)
449 Euclid, 3/2.5, $2,295K, 3/13/09, 6/9/09, $2,000K (-13%)
423 9th, 3/2.5, $2,599K, 3/11/09, 6/5/09, $2,560K (-2%)

734 22nd, 5/4.5, $3,678K (-14%), 3/21/08, 5/28/09, $3,400K (-8%)
327 Alta, 5/3.5, $3,995K, 12/1/08, 5/13/09, $3,600K (-10%)
402 20th, 5/5.5, $4,288K (-22%), 10/30/08, 5/20/09, $4,000K (-7%)

Pacific Palisades 90272 <$2M

16751 W Sunset, 3/2, $850K (-29%), 8/3/08, 5/28/09, $650K (-24%)
16723 W Sunset, 4/3, $900K (-10%), 10/28/08, 5/14/09, $814K (-10%)

1423 Avenida de Cortez, 4/2.5, $1,295K (-9%), 3/11/09, 6/18/09, $1,216K (-6%)
16463 Akron, 3/2, $1,299K (-59%), 7/11/07, 6/15/09, $1,203K (-7%)
16910 Marquez, 4/2.5, $1,399K (-20%), 10/15/08, 5/6/09, $1,200K (-14%)
1061 Tellem, 4/3, $1,600K (-8%), 4/29/09, 7/2/09, $1,370K (-14%)

16632 Calle Haleigh, 4/4.5, $1,675K, 2/24/09, 5/15/09, $1,600K (-4%)
512 Beirut, 4/3.5, $1,695K, 1/20/09, 6/25/09, $1,645K (-3%)
544 Paseo Miramar, 3/2.5, $1,695K (-13%), 3/3/08, 5/13/09, $1,460K (-14%)
542 Chapala, 2/1.5, $1,895K, 4/2/09, 6/16/09, $1,860K (-2%)
16672 Calle Arbolada, 5/4, $1,910K, 3/5/09, 5/15/09, $1,900K (-1%)
16006 Temecula, 4/3, $1,995K (-9%), 10/18/08, 6/23/09, $1,700K (-15%)
1043 Fiske, 4/3, $1,995K (-19%), 10/13/08, 5/21/09, $1,865K (-7%)

ABC News on Santa Monica collapsing prices

2009-07-04T22:37:00.000-07:00

ABC News / Forbes.com highlighted Santa Monica (Thanks, Anon 7/4!) in their article today. It begins,

America's Most Troubled Luxury Neighborhoods
The Collapse in Prices Has Finally Come Home to the Rich

Has the housing market scraped bottom? Not in some of the wealthier neighborhoods -- places like New York City's Greenwich Village, Santa Monica, Calif. and Chicago's Lincoln Park. They held up nicely while the rest of the country slumped last year. This year such Tiffany zip codes are on track to fall 15 percent to 25 percent.

Why haven't you heard about this? Statistics lag. With relatively low unemployment, high-end addresses don't have foreclosures to hasten capitulation. ...

There is a still-growing supply of wildly overpriced, unsold homes--60,000 U.S. properties priced above $2 million listed on Realtor.com. Experts get these gloomy vibes by dividing inventory by the current monthly rate of purchases.

"Any result over seven months generally means falling prices," says David Stiff, chief economist at Fiserv in Brookfield, Wis. In some tony neighborhoods the level of glut is higher than the national average of ten months.

Let's see: 110 house listings in Santa Monica, divided by average monthly sales of 8-12 (depending on whether we average the last 3, 6 or 12 months) = 9-14 months supply. And we've already seen around a 25% low-end north of Montana price fall.

ABC's section about Santa Monica cites,

In Santa Monica's coveted "north of Montana" area overlooking the Pacific, listings are up 60% since last year and the number of days on the market for those listings has doubled to 140. Homes once sold in as little as a week here. Closer to Main Street, Bill H. Meyers has struggled for more than a year to sell his condo.

In April 2008 L.A. was hurting, but Santa Monica values hovered around their peaks. So Meyers tried to unload his property for $850,000, roughly in line with what another unit in his building sold for. He turned down bids near $800,000 after he found a renter at $3,500 a month.

Now that his tenant is gone, Meyers hasn't found a replacement at that price, and getting another $800,000 bid is impossible. The data still say Santa Monica is stronger than other nearby markets. It's just 14 percent off peak prices, versus Los Angeles, down 38%. But the beach city's inventory of unsold homes has just crossed the 15-month level, as high as Los Angeles' were last year. By that grim logic, Santa Monica's values are likely to tumble as far as those in Los Angeles did last year, 27 percent.

Like Meyers, anyone who can afford to will hang on as long as possible, banking on the faith, he says, that "the market is going to come back." Meantime, excess supply is piling up.

Our graphs have been telling the same story.

New, Sold, and Withdrawn/Expired listings

2009-07-04T13:25:00.000-07:00

You know the "bathtub" model - water level (inventory) in the bathtub depends on the water tap (new listings) and the drain (sales and withdrawn/expired listings). Listings and sales are generally down, while inventories and withdrawn/expired listings are at high levels.

Nothing over $3M closed in Santa Monica in June. Mar Vista's buying frenzy of the last couple of months has largely finished escrow, resulting in the June spike (third chart from the bottom), and I'm not seeing nearly as many new escrows now.

This and the falling prices we've been noting were the best that could be done even in the optimistic "green shoots" second quarter of 2009. Look out below as economic reality reasserts ahead!

Westside inventory charts

2009-07-04T13:06:00.000-07:00

At the end of the first half of 2009 most inventories remain at high levels, although some are off a peak earlier in the spring.