tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2983944778720243687.post2957270731637913815..comments2023-11-05T04:24:01.807-08:00Comments on Westside Bubble: A projectionWestside Bubblehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03383559105050069002noreply@blogger.comBlogger33125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2983944778720243687.post-6366561777865418442009-02-01T17:14:00.000-08:002009-02-01T17:14:00.000-08:00"Just cause you remember the 90402 a certain way f..."Just cause you remember the 90402 a certain way from your childhood doesn't mean is is still that way today"<BR/><BR/>I remember the 90402 from about 2002, right before the funny money inflated the biggest bubble ever. If you truly believe the 90402 will at most correct 10%, then go buy something right now.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2983944778720243687.post-46383786809557114452009-02-01T10:21:00.000-08:002009-02-01T10:21:00.000-08:008:30 is right on the moneyThere is constant evolut...8:30 is right on the money<BR/><BR/>There is constant evolution in where the rich want to live - a neighborhood is "hot" and then it is not. <BR/><BR/>Look at Newport RI - rich people spent $10 or $20 million of today's dollars to build houses there and then when the neighborhood went out of style in the 1950's you could buy those same houses for $200k <BR/><BR/>Today the neighborhood is back in style and those same houses are back at $10 million each.<BR/><BR/><BR/>Neighborhoods that are disgusting become hot and in demand - take the meat packing district in Manhattan - people that paid $300k for a building there can now sell it for $14 million<BR/><BR/>Neighborhoods are either on the way up or on the way down. Just cause you remember the 90402 a certain way from your childhood doesn't mean is is still that way todayAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2983944778720243687.post-81293534108786817202009-02-01T08:30:00.000-08:002009-02-01T08:30:00.000-08:00I love how you all see this issue in black and whi...I love how you all see this issue in black and white. NOMA will never drop by 50%....NOMA has to drop by 50%. I lived in neighborhoods all over this country that used to be where rich people lived. Look at West Adams in LA isn't that were the rich once flocked? Now look at it.<BR/><BR/>On the other hand, what if those most optimistic among us are right? What if one small neighborhood of rich folks continues to increase in price even in the face of the most challenging economic period in the last 100 years? So what, does that mean that all of LA will remain unaffordable/over priced?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2983944778720243687.post-51187519682137280982009-02-01T08:18:00.000-08:002009-02-01T08:18:00.000-08:00"tough jumbos"You mean, standards are back to the2..."tough jumbos"<BR/><BR/>You mean, standards are back to the2000 era (i.e., you need to make well over 500K to afford a $2 million mortgage) and rates on jumbos are what, 8 percent? If people are holding their breath for the 2003-2006 lending standards to come back and that will save NOM, good luck with that.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2983944778720243687.post-6624935427776738622009-02-01T08:13:00.000-08:002009-02-01T08:13:00.000-08:00So three houses went into escrow in all of January...So three houses went into escrow in all of January, and given how many BOMs we see these days, it's likely that at most two of those will close escrow. Sounds like a very sick market to me.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2983944778720243687.post-14872120618403285912009-01-31T22:54:00.000-08:002009-01-31T22:54:00.000-08:00Has anything gone into escrow this month in the re...<I>Has anything gone into escrow this month in the recession-proof 90402 or 90403?</I><BR/><BR/>Yes, these few:<BR/><BR/>210 21st St, 3/3, LP=$1,995K (-19%), into escrow 1/14/09.<BR/><BR/>1024 23rd St, 4/4.5, $2,695K (-6%), 1/29/09<BR/><BR/>473 16th St, 4/4.5, $3995K, 1/21/09Westside Bubblehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03383559105050069002noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2983944778720243687.post-2723745801502709302009-01-31T19:57:00.000-08:002009-01-31T19:57:00.000-08:00DWR, I am in a profession (not R/E) that deals wit...DWR, I am in a profession (not R/E) that deals with high net worth individuals. I admit I overstated about the '100'; I personally know 8 individuals in the +$700k down range who are looking. It is awkward bumping into some of them at open houses (I am also looking) over the past year or two, but good to compare notes. FYI, the #3 gripe I hear (behind stuck prices and tough jumbo's) is when a random Realtor finds out about their financial sitution and becomes a pest.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2983944778720243687.post-43292491785664750062009-01-31T19:06:00.000-08:002009-01-31T19:06:00.000-08:00"50% drop is not going to happen - do you believe ..."50% drop is not going to happen - do you believe low-end NOMA will go down to $1.1M? I'll put 70% down and get a conforming - as will about 100 other buyers."<BR/><BR/>Maybe not 50%, but low-end will end up well below 1.5. I agree with Westside Bubble's 1.3 number, give or take a little. <BR/><BR/>You know 100 people with 700K for down payments? Are you a tax preparer or something?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2983944778720243687.post-22910759327431842432009-01-31T19:03:00.000-08:002009-01-31T19:03:00.000-08:00Has anything gone into escrow this month in the re...Has anything gone into escrow this month in the recession-proof 90402 or 90403?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2983944778720243687.post-76218482394420250952009-01-31T17:27:00.000-08:002009-01-31T17:27:00.000-08:00Right - the 90402 doesn't "feel" like the type of ...Right - the 90402 doesn't "feel" like the type of place where million a year people live<BR/><BR/><BR/>We all have a mental picture of the people making a million a year year in and year out - <BR/><BR/>but that mental picture may be wrong <BR/><BR/>a thousand of the million a year types or a few hundred of them like the low key vibe of 90402 - you expect them to drive Bentleys but perhaps they drive priusesAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2983944778720243687.post-78360308710493401262009-01-31T16:23:00.000-08:002009-01-31T16:23:00.000-08:00I'm not so sure about the 1,700 over $1MM steady a...I'm not so sure about the 1,700 over $1MM steady annual income number (but some folks are getting big pops from bonuses, scripts, cap gains, inheritances, etc.). A lot of my 90402 friends and neighbors are firmly mid six figures, real steady, for years past and likely years future. None of them live in a new McMansion or anything worth over $3.5MM - perhaps I know the po' folk. If you are looking for a concentration of +$1MM per year folks they are probably in other nearby 'hoods like Brentwood Park, PP, Holmby, Mandeville, Beverly Crest, etc.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2983944778720243687.post-4614196490358513522009-01-31T14:32:00.000-08:002009-01-31T14:32:00.000-08:00The 1700 people with incomes that average a millio...The 1700 people with incomes that average a million can afford the 90402 at today's pricesAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2983944778720243687.post-8947807242472103672009-01-31T12:30:00.000-08:002009-01-31T12:30:00.000-08:00How are all those houses in the Inland Empire sell...How are all those houses in the Inland Empire selling today? Because credit is available. <BR/><BR/>Conforming loans were never shut off - not the same as jumbo. 50% drop is not going to happen - do you believe low-end NOMA will go down to $1.1M? I'll put 70% down and get a conforming - as will about 100 other buyers.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2983944778720243687.post-91887964514293500932009-01-31T12:04:00.000-08:002009-01-31T12:04:00.000-08:00"When credit opens (it will)"How are all those hou..."When credit opens (it will)"<BR/><BR/>How are all those houses in the Inland Empire selling today? Because credit is available. Unfortunately, prices have to drop 50% (give or take a little bit) from the peaks in order for the numbers to make sense for the typical buyers in each neighborhood.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2983944778720243687.post-51221353287133737012009-01-31T10:30:00.000-08:002009-01-31T10:30:00.000-08:00Down payments are not the issue - potential 90402 ...Down payments are not the issue - potential 90402 buyers seem to have 20-30-40% down amounts well in hand. The issue is qualifying and getting a loan in a tight credit market, and the perception another price drop is coming. I am not a Realtor, but my situation and a lot of what I hear is 'if teardowns hit $1.6M or livables hit $2.0M, or larger old Spanish hit $2.6M I am in'. When credit opens (it will) and when prices drop (they will), readers may be surprised by the amount of clearing activity. The big question is when both factors will happen.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2983944778720243687.post-24858952061099441352009-01-31T09:26:00.000-08:002009-01-31T09:26:00.000-08:00This is a lame discussion thread. The people who ...This is a lame discussion thread. <BR/><BR/>The people who buy houses in 90402 have to come up with a lot of $$$ now to put down and afford it.<BR/><BR/>Yeah? So?<BR/><BR/>Why do I care how they get it?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2983944778720243687.post-73041669657003063862009-01-31T06:07:00.000-08:002009-01-31T06:07:00.000-08:00It all depends on the distribution of these 1700 p...It all depends on the distribution of these 1700 people<BR/><BR/>whose mean is a million<BR/><BR/>if most cluster towards the mean of one million that means perhaps a thousand people that can easily afford to pay 5 million for a house in the 90402<BR/><BR/><BR/>If most cluster towards the bottom and one or two make a ton that means few people that can afford to pay 5 million for a house in the 90402<BR/><BR/><BR/>The key issue debated on this board is not whether people want to live in the 90402 - the key issue is how many can afford the 5 million price tag for a brand new spec home<BR/><BR/>the cluster is crucial to thatAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2983944778720243687.post-80068879896148999282009-01-30T22:19:00.000-08:002009-01-30T22:19:00.000-08:00All the numbers I posted are means. Go to melissa...All the numbers I posted are means. Go to melissadata for the overall zip code adjusted gross income (they list it as $342,169):<BR/><BR/>http://www.melissadata.com/lookups/TaxZip.asp?Zip=90402&Submit=Submit<BR/><BR/>For the more specific stats that have breakdowns by income group and type of income, go to the IRS:<BR/><BR/>http://www.irs.gov/taxstats/indtaxstats/article/0,,id=96947,00.html<BR/><BR/>Not published, so you'll have to pay $500 for the whole country, or $25 for CA.<BR/><BR/>For tax treatment of hedge fund managers, just do a google search. My question was rhetorical about where that income would show up. They've been treating it as capital gains (not wages) for years, which is why the issue has come up before congress in the last year(ish).<BR/><BR/>dwr, these are the same sources I always cite for income (along with the SM city site)... I imagine that your example of one billionaire to 1,699 half-millionaires could still be true, but wouldn't that be using the same type of logic that some bulls use when speaking of overseas investors and individual saviors?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2983944778720243687.post-81709655310050622842009-01-30T17:21:00.000-08:002009-01-30T17:21:00.000-08:00yes link to the data we can do our own calculation...yes link to the data <BR/><BR/>we can do our own calculations <BR/><BR/><BR/><BR/>The key here is the one million a year in family income - if there really are huge numbers of families earning that in the 90402 then it is a bullish sign<BR/><BR/>if not it is bearish - <BR/><BR/>so let's see the raw dataAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2983944778720243687.post-18463649303287209652009-01-30T15:02:00.000-08:002009-01-30T15:02:00.000-08:00To put the mean, median, and mode Q's to rest, can...To put the mean, median, and mode Q's to rest, can someome please post a link with the data from a credible reporting source? Respectfully, another blog or Realtor page is not a credible data source (sorry Westside). ;)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2983944778720243687.post-30142846619036490832009-01-30T14:48:00.000-08:002009-01-30T14:48:00.000-08:00I agree but can someone clarify - is that one mill...I agree but can someone clarify - is that one million a year income figure posted above MEDIAN or mean <BR/><BR/>?if it is the mean can someone post the median income of those 1683 families thanksAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2983944778720243687.post-86338448656210534042009-01-30T14:06:00.000-08:002009-01-30T14:06:00.000-08:00Thank you for this prediction and breakdown.I'm of...Thank you for this prediction and breakdown.<BR/><BR/>I'm of the opinion that much of LA will likely overshoot, due to the fact that we're facing the largest declines in employment, across all sectors, that this country has seen in quite some time. Many of the lost jobs were in fueled by the bubble and won't be coming back any time soon. Also, the high level of unemployment will lead to lower wages for many, since there will be a lot of competition.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2983944778720243687.post-29288083841202767592009-01-30T11:53:00.000-08:002009-01-30T11:53:00.000-08:00And isn't this the median, from your own post? Si...And isn't this the median, from your own post? Since (as always) you didn't post a link, it's hard for me to verify.<BR/><BR/>"For more color on 90402 income, it rose overall by 6.4% in 2006 to $338,122."Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2983944778720243687.post-86940845612642853782009-01-30T11:35:00.000-08:002009-01-30T11:35:00.000-08:00Not for the hedge fund manager- that would be a bo...Not for the hedge fund manager- that would be a bonus from his/her job, i.e. income.<BR/><BR/>Since all the rich people are flocking to SM, how many houses have gone into escrow this month in either 90402 or 90403?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2983944778720243687.post-84559239232969531972009-01-30T10:58:00.000-08:002009-01-30T10:58:00.000-08:00Hey dwr, if you have access to the median, please ...Hey dwr, if you have access to the median, please post (I don't have it). I hear what you're saying, but respectfully disagree... Wouldn't hedge fund gains show up as either capital gains, taxable interest, or taxable dividends?<BR/><BR/>Speaking of which, one small clarification regarding capital gains stat I quoted: only 1,458 of the 1,683 folks listed capital gains or losses. The average for those 1,458 was $345,872 (as opposed to all 1,683 averaging this).Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com