tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2983944778720243687.post1897335512522035843..comments2023-11-05T04:24:01.807-08:00Comments on Westside Bubble: August S&P/Case-ShillerWestside Bubblehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03383559105050069002noreply@blogger.comBlogger16125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2983944778720243687.post-81297475718992302382008-10-31T08:09:00.000-07:002008-10-31T08:09:00.000-07:00Do you guys know what a trendline looks like? We a...Do you guys know what a trendline looks like? We are not back to the trendline. When you fit a line to that data it would be at about 150 on the chart shown on this site. When I use the raw data and fit a line it needs to drop another 22% or so.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2983944778720243687.post-12348644419494920512008-10-30T17:26:00.000-07:002008-10-30T17:26:00.000-07:00yes the index is back to trend line but santa moni...yes the index is back to trend line <BR/><BR/>but santa monica is not back at trend <BR/><BR/>either SM is at a permanently higher plateu or sm has yet to fall <BR/><BR/><BR/>it is the battle of the bulls vs bearsAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2983944778720243687.post-58084716065784914472008-10-30T17:12:00.000-07:002008-10-30T17:12:00.000-07:00Case shiller may overshoot, but it does appears th...Case shiller may overshoot, but it does appears that we are back in line with long term trends. I for one am shocked that we haven't seen vastly more movement in the local market. Time will tell.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2983944778720243687.post-49285867129053001892008-10-30T17:06:00.000-07:002008-10-30T17:06:00.000-07:00Case Shiller shows what exactly? Where is the dat...Case Shiller shows what exactly? Where is the data that shows me when I can afford a house? In Santa Monica? 'cause i've been lookin' and its not that much betta' out there.<BR/><BR/>You can buy pure fixer crap or loads of condos. Gee, did the bubble pass me by?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2983944778720243687.post-20355674929243277962008-10-30T13:54:00.000-07:002008-10-30T13:54:00.000-07:00you are correct we are back in lineyou are correct <BR/>we are back in lineAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2983944778720243687.post-61668387201252128912008-10-30T12:54:00.000-07:002008-10-30T12:54:00.000-07:00Um... is it just me or does this graph make it loo...Um... is it just me or does this graph make it look like Case-Shiller is back in line with long term trends?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2983944778720243687.post-44468491056506923892008-10-30T11:19:00.000-07:002008-10-30T11:19:00.000-07:00loan resetslost jobsforeclosuresyada-yada-yada1846...loan resets<BR/>lost jobs<BR/>foreclosures<BR/>yada-yada-yada<BR/>1846 prices coming your way<BR/>by late Summer 2010.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2983944778720243687.post-82669885898858454892008-10-29T20:12:00.000-07:002008-10-29T20:12:00.000-07:00"the lots in 90402 were 900k back in 1989"Right, a..."the lots in 90402 were 900k back in 1989"<BR/><BR/>Right, at close to another peak in the LA market (check the graph these posts are referencing). Bad data point for comparison, IMHO.<BR/><BR/>The point is, who knows? It's fun and everything to conjecture (and do the oh-so-2000s thing of bashing people's opinions anonymously), but where we end up is anyone's guess. I do agree with the poster who said that, as with the upside, cycles overcorrect on the downside.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2983944778720243687.post-40571636382634773932008-10-29T20:05:00.000-07:002008-10-29T20:05:00.000-07:00the lots in 90402 were 900k back in 1989a vacant l...the lots in 90402 were 900k back in 1989<BR/><BR/>a vacant lot going up from 900k to 1.9 million over 20 years doesnt seem excessive<BR/><BR/>that is only four percent a year <BR/><BR/>and 90402 is safer today than it was in 1989Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2983944778720243687.post-50711923100648719672008-10-29T14:33:00.000-07:002008-10-29T14:33:00.000-07:00i appreciate late summer it is good to have him he...i appreciate late summer <BR/><BR/>it is good to have him here<BR/><BR/>if any of the raging bulls on this site put in as much work as late summer they would get the props but they don't<BR/><BR/>SM is made up of neighborhoods . certain neighborhoods will do better than others in this coming real estate crashAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2983944778720243687.post-726877623387875052008-10-29T08:37:00.000-07:002008-10-29T08:37:00.000-07:00according to latesummer we will finally be able to...according to latesummer we will finally be able to buy in SM for $250,000. Thank gosh for your prediction. Here we go 1920s.. <BR/><BR/>Same tapes..do you have any other tunes?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2983944778720243687.post-51410554370107839162008-10-29T08:34:00.000-07:002008-10-29T08:34:00.000-07:00what do the latest transactions imply ? what is t...what do the latest transactions imply ? what is the price of land on a standard 7500 sq foot lot on best streets in 90402 and what is the price of that same lot on the best sfr streets in 90403?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2983944778720243687.post-88285056360411178522008-10-28T21:59:00.000-07:002008-10-28T21:59:00.000-07:00latesummer is so boring. yeah, yeah, yeah, we kno...latesummer is so boring. yeah, yeah, yeah, we know.<BR/><BR/>It will be at 1928 prices soon if we wait.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2983944778720243687.post-12714078463991006752008-10-28T16:22:00.000-07:002008-10-28T16:22:00.000-07:00when did 90402 land peak and how far down are we f...when did 90402 land peak and how far down are we from the peak in 90402 landAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2983944778720243687.post-26216446829051315832008-10-28T14:25:00.000-07:002008-10-28T14:25:00.000-07:00Keep in mind, the downside tends to overshoot. We ...Keep in mind, the downside tends to overshoot. We could roll back to the late 90s...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2983944778720243687.post-81659772503037716632008-10-28T14:13:00.000-07:002008-10-28T14:13:00.000-07:00Thanks for the great blog and graphics.What's amaz...Thanks for the great blog and graphics.<BR/><BR/>What's amazing is that prices are STILL out of whack by any measure, despite the recent dramatic price reductions and the onset of the "great financial panic" since the Great Depression. <BR/><BR/>The appreciation between 2000 and spring 2004 of nearly 100% is crazy. <BR/><BR/>Assuming 3.5% annual appreciation trend line (as was approx experienced between 1980-2000), prices would need to revert to a historically/quantitatively defensible level.<BR/><BR/>So we only have another 21-32% price reductions (131-150 in terms of chart index) from current levels to go!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com