Tuesday, April 28, 2009

February S&P/Case-Shiller

Los Angeles overall has passed 40% down in the latest, February S&P/Case-Shiller update. It's as steep as ever, remarkably symmetrical, nothing beginning to flatten. Los Angeles (including Orange County) is now down 40.4% from September 2006 peak, back to August 2003 levels.

By month that's 2.0% from January, 2.8% from December, 2.5% from November, 2.2% from October, 2.6% from September, 2.5% from August, 1.8% from July, 1.6% from June, 1.4% from May, 1.9% from April, 2.2% from March, 3.6% from February, 4.3% from January, 3.7% from December 2007, 3.6% from November, 3.6% from October, 2.1% from September and 1.3% from August. The national (orange line, their original 10-city Composite) index is down 31.6% from its peak in June 2006.

Besides the original city index they have each city broken into Low, Middle, and High tiers (Under $296,984, $296,984 - $452,303, and Over $452,303; updated for February). Los Angeles' Low Tier rose the most and has fallen back the most so far from its November 2006 peak, now over 50% at 52.0%.

The High Tier rose the least and plateaued for awhile before falling more steeply, now down another 1.3% to 30.2% from its June 2006 peak. It hasn't retraced quite as far, only to January 2004.

Saturday, April 25, 2009

Weekly inventory update

4/24/09 - Slightly up, slightly down, I'd really call it pretty flat for the weeks of April so far. New listings MTD appear trending a little below March.

4/17/09 - Santa Monica and Palms-Mar Vista are slightly up, while Pacific Palisades is down by one.

Another low-end north-of-Montana is Pending: the 3 bed / 3 bath at 415 17th, asking $1,799K, a 20% reduction since its listing last December.

Added: Another sale is the 3 bed / 2.75 bath house at 517 14th for $1,775K on 4/16, last asking $1,898K (-21%).

4/10/09 - Santa Monica is up slightly for the week, Pacific Palisades pretty flat, and Palms-Mar Vista down a little. The most activity is in the latter's conforming-mortage listings.

Two low-end north of Montana houses may have found their price levels last week: the 2 bed / 1 bath at 720 17th, last asking $1,649K, and the 3/3 at 210 21st, last asking $1,840K, both entered escrow ("Looking for Backup").

      LA County  Santa Monica Pacific Palisades  Mar Vista
<$3M New Tot DOM<$2M New Tot DOM Tot New DOM

-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
1/30/06 27,732
2/28/06 29,420
3/31/06 31,819
5/ 1/06 34,032 38 33
6/ 2/06 37,847 56 36 38
6/30/06 42,317 66 40 49
8/ 4/06 45,315 70 34 50
9/ 1/06 46,781 71 27 59
10/ 6/06 47,369 83 25 98 71
11/ 3/06 45,780 80 20 91 77
12/ 1/06 43,103 65 18 72 96 39 20
1/ 5/07 35,646 54 4 60 117 33 6 71 66
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
2/ 2/07 36,715 38 15 45 124 29 16 61 71 70
3/ 2/07 41,251 42 14 51 114 26 10 68 79 55 25 76
4/ 6/07 42,857 41 23 49 107 18 8 73 103 54 52 50
5/ 4/07 45,918 46 28 54 92 19 6 82 79 71 37 52
6/ 1/07 52,198 50 25 61 78 17 15 87 78 77 39 53
6/30/07 52,769 42 18 56 81 17 11 92 77 74 33 61
8/ 3/07 54,166 53 28 68 86 23 12 78 76 84 39 68
8/31/07 57,432 57 21 72 98 18 7 69 75 90 40 79
9/28/07 58,973 59 17 74 103 26 9 90 81 87 20 87
11/ 2/07 58,731 62 19 81 120 29 7 106 77 98 35 88
11/30/07 59,108 52 14 67 136 23 11 88 94 96 23 96
12/31/07 53,475 42 5 53 148 19 2 73 119 79 13 116
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
2/ 1/08 53,722 54 16 67 157 26 16 101 118 89 36 96
2/29/08 53,520 50 10 68 178 29 8 108 108 88 21 103
3/28/08 53,566 57 17 81 171 32 14 122 92 82 22 105
5/ 2/08 54,098 59 14 83 159 35 7 136 93 90 33 96
5/30/08 53,216 56 23 79 147 34 9 142 106 91 29 89
6/27/08 53,058 74 28 98 131 30 6 129 107 96 26 95
8/ 2/08 51,906 66 14 89 125 34 8 120 136 99 35 101
8/29/08 50,124 62 9 79 122 29 5 108 156 91 25 104
10/ 3/08 48,113 58 14 82 145 41 15 128 132 84 24 109
10/31/08 47,017 64 22 90 131 55 18 159 126 83 21 103
11/28/08 45,216 64 12 91 141 54 7 151 124 73 9 130
12/31/08 40,810 52 3 80 171 47 5 130 134 63 10 144
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
1/30/09 38,486 67 16 94 181 59 15 157 145 66 15 157
2/27/09 37,647 73 14 98 164 73 17 181 148 75 19 131
4/ 3/09 84 25 108 155 73 11 187 150 74 24 128
4/10/09 85 7 111 160 72 5 187 144 71 5 126
4/17/09 87 12 112 163 71 7 146 73 12 115
4/24/09 86 16 112 163 70 8 148 71 13 130
5/ 1/09

Monday, April 20, 2009

Subway meeting Thursday

The last Metro meeting of this round about the Wilshire subway is this Thursday, April 23, 6 – 8 p.m., at the Santa Monica main library, 601 Santa Monica Blvd. More here.

Weekly inventory update

4/17/09 - Santa Monica and Palms-Mar Vista are slightly up, while Pacific Palisades is down by one.

Another low-end north-of-Montana is Pending: the 3 bed / 3 bath at 415 17th, asking $1,799K, a 20% reduction since its listing last December.

Added: Another sale is the 3 bed / 2.75 bath house at 517 14th for $1,775K on 4/16, last asking $1,898K (-21%).

4/10/09 - Santa Monica is up slightly for the week, Pacific Palisades pretty flat, and Palms-Mar Vista down a little. The most activity is in the latter's conforming-mortage listings.

Two low-end north of Montana houses may have found their price levels last week: the 2 bed / 1 bath at 720 17th, last asking $1,649K, and the 3/3 at 210 21st, last asking $1,840K, both entered escrow ("Looking for Backup").

      LA County  Santa Monica Pacific Palisades  Mar Vista
<$3M New Tot DOM<$2M New Tot DOM Tot New DOM

-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
1/30/06 27,732
2/28/06 29,420
3/31/06 31,819
5/ 1/06 34,032 38 33
6/ 2/06 37,847 56 36 38
6/30/06 42,317 66 40 49
8/ 4/06 45,315 70 34 50
9/ 1/06 46,781 71 27 59
10/ 6/06 47,369 83 25 98 71
11/ 3/06 45,780 80 20 91 77
12/ 1/06 43,103 65 18 72 96 39 20
1/ 5/07 35,646 54 4 60 117 33 6 71 66
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
2/ 2/07 36,715 38 15 45 124 29 16 61 71 70
3/ 2/07 41,251 42 14 51 114 26 10 68 79 55 25 76
4/ 6/07 42,857 41 23 49 107 18 8 73 103 54 52 50
5/ 4/07 45,918 46 28 54 92 19 6 82 79 71 37 52
6/ 1/07 52,198 50 25 61 78 17 15 87 78 77 39 53
6/30/07 52,769 42 18 56 81 17 11 92 77 74 33 61
8/ 3/07 54,166 53 28 68 86 23 12 78 76 84 39 68
8/31/07 57,432 57 21 72 98 18 7 69 75 90 40 79
9/28/07 58,973 59 17 74 103 26 9 90 81 87 20 87
11/ 2/07 58,731 62 19 81 120 29 7 106 77 98 35 88
11/30/07 59,108 52 14 67 136 23 11 88 94 96 23 96
12/31/07 53,475 42 5 53 148 19 2 73 119 79 13 116
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
2/ 1/08 53,722 54 16 67 157 26 16 101 118 89 36 96
2/29/08 53,520 50 10 68 178 29 8 108 108 88 21 103
3/28/08 53,566 57 17 81 171 32 14 122 92 82 22 105
5/ 2/08 54,098 59 14 83 159 35 7 136 93 90 33 96
5/30/08 53,216 56 23 79 147 34 9 142 106 91 29 89
6/27/08 53,058 74 28 98 131 30 6 129 107 96 26 95
8/ 2/08 51,906 66 14 89 125 34 8 120 136 99 35 101
8/29/08 50,124 62 9 79 122 29 5 108 156 91 25 104
10/ 3/08 48,113 58 14 82 145 41 15 128 132 84 24 109
10/31/08 47,017 64 22 90 131 55 18 159 126 83 21 103
11/28/08 45,216 64 12 91 141 54 7 151 124 73 9 130
12/31/08 40,810 52 3 80 171 47 5 130 134 63 10 144
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
1/30/09 38,486 67 16 94 181 59 15 157 145 66 15 157
2/27/09 37,647 73 14 98 164 73 17 181 148 75 19 131
4/ 3/09 84 25 108 155 73 11 187 150 74 24 128
4/10/09 85 7 111 160 72 5 187 144 71 5 126
4/17/09 87 12 112 163 71 7 146 73 12 115
4/24/09

Monday, April 13, 2009

Adelaide view

This is a fun house with a great view to write about, on the north side at 237 Adelaide Dr. The photo shows the west side of the property, the living room with higher- level stainless steel restaurant kitchen and dining area, all very modern. That's the ocean beyond the mouth of Santa Monica Canyon through the windows.

To the right out of frame is a garage above, master bedroom below. Yes, you go outside from the bedroom to the living-kitchen area, past the small pool (center-front in photo). (Click on the link above to see good photos of its interior.)

It's now asking $2,195K, reduced three times from its original 7/7/08 listing for $2,895K. Doesn't seem to be worth $2,195K to anyone, though.

"Major price reduction.Easy to show. Platitudes aside, this is simply the best view in the best location in Santa Monica. Ocean,canyon and mountain views above Santa Monica Canyon!! Living room w/2-story ceilings, wall of glass. private pool, separate structure private office Bedroom wing off of patio area. Fabulous location for buyer/investor looking to live or build. It is currently a stunning pied-a-terre"

Sunday, April 12, 2009

Weekly inventory update

4/10/09 - Santa Monica is up slightly for the week, Pacific Palisades pretty flat, and Palms-Mar Vista down a little. The most activity is in the latter's conforming-mortage listings.

Two low-end north of Montana houses may have found their price levels last week: the 2 bed / 1 bath at 720 17th, last asking $1,649K, and the 3/3 at 210 21st, last asking $1,840K, both entered escrow ("Looking for Backup").

      LA County  Santa Monica Pacific Palisades  Mar Vista
<$3M New Tot DOM<$2M New Tot DOM Tot New DOM

-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
1/30/06 27,732
2/28/06 29,420
3/31/06 31,819
5/ 1/06 34,032 38 33
6/ 2/06 37,847 56 36 38
6/30/06 42,317 66 40 49
8/ 4/06 45,315 70 34 50
9/ 1/06 46,781 71 27 59
10/ 6/06 47,369 83 25 98 71
11/ 3/06 45,780 80 20 91 77
12/ 1/06 43,103 65 18 72 96 39 20
1/ 5/07 35,646 54 4 60 117 33 6 71 66
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
2/ 2/07 36,715 38 15 45 124 29 16 61 71 70
3/ 2/07 41,251 42 14 51 114 26 10 68 79 55 25 76
4/ 6/07 42,857 41 23 49 107 18 8 73 103 54 52 50
5/ 4/07 45,918 46 28 54 92 19 6 82 79 71 37 52
6/ 1/07 52,198 50 25 61 78 17 15 87 78 77 39 53
6/30/07 52,769 42 18 56 81 17 11 92 77 74 33 61
8/ 3/07 54,166 53 28 68 86 23 12 78 76 84 39 68
8/31/07 57,432 57 21 72 98 18 7 69 75 90 40 79
9/28/07 58,973 59 17 74 103 26 9 90 81 87 20 87
11/ 2/07 58,731 62 19 81 120 29 7 106 77 98 35 88
11/30/07 59,108 52 14 67 136 23 11 88 94 96 23 96
12/31/07 53,475 42 5 53 148 19 2 73 119 79 13 116
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
2/ 1/08 53,722 54 16 67 157 26 16 101 118 89 36 96
2/29/08 53,520 50 10 68 178 29 8 108 108 88 21 103
3/28/08 53,566 57 17 81 171 32 14 122 92 82 22 105
5/ 2/08 54,098 59 14 83 159 35 7 136 93 90 33 96
5/30/08 53,216 56 23 79 147 34 9 142 106 91 29 89
6/27/08 53,058 74 28 98 131 30 6 129 107 96 26 95
8/ 2/08 51,906 66 14 89 125 34 8 120 136 99 35 101
8/29/08 50,124 62 9 79 122 29 5 108 156 91 25 104
10/ 3/08 48,113 58 14 82 145 41 15 128 132 84 24 109
10/31/08 47,017 64 22 90 131 55 18 159 126 83 21 103
11/28/08 45,216 64 12 91 141 54 7 151 124 73 9 130
12/31/08 40,810 52 3 80 171 47 5 130 134 63 10 144
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
1/30/09 38,486 67 16 94 181 59 15 157 145 66 15 157
2/27/09 37,647 73 14 98 164 73 17 181 148 75 19 131
4/ 3/09 84 25 108 155 73 11 187 150 74 24 128
4/10/09 85 7 111 160 72 5 187 144 71 5 126

4/17/09

Friday, April 10, 2009

Cheapest in Palisades

The cheapest listing in Pacific Palisades is this 2 bed / 2 bath 1,288 SF house at 616 Las Lomas Ave, asking $798K, described as:

"Motivated Seller! This is a probate sale. Any offer should be made on a probate form. Only the agent who represents the final buyer will be eligible for the commission. There is not an accepted offer on this property. The seller is very motivated."

Yes, this seller is actually acting "motivated" with three price reductions so far. It started out at $1,150K last November, perhaps based on the 3/23/07 sale of similarly-small 478 Wynola for $1,150K. Las Lomas has a rather pretty and quiet location, but it isn't a block from the bluff's ocean view like Wynola is.

They're positioning it as a tear-down, not unreasonable considering its worn condition and peculiar add-ons. The yard is a tiny 3,790 SF - the photo above shows how small, also how the back of the house is a story lower than the front. But there's not much of a market for new spec houses on tiny lots.

Thursday, April 9, 2009

March inventory graphs

Only Palms-Mar Vista can say it doesn't have an inventory problem. 'Nuff said.

(You'll notice I got sick of the standard Excel gray charts.)





SM sold, listed, and withdrawn/expired

Yes, you read the graphs above and below correctly. Exactly ONE Santa Monica listing sold in March: 1008 Bay Street, 2 bed / 1 bath, closed 3/26/09 for $825K. Although April should be a little better, with a few others now in escrow.

Oops. Per the comment, is wasn't quite that dramatic, there were three sold in March in Santa Monica. (I'd missed flagging those two - also one in Palisades - to check on sales status.) Although even three is still pretty dramatically low.





Wednesday, April 8, 2009

Monthly inventory update

4/3/09 - Santa Monica is flat for the week, up for the month; Pacific Palisades is up for the week but flat for the month; and Palms-Mar Vista is flat for both. The greater Westside is up 3.4% for the month and a huge 35% compared to a year ago. Graphs will follow (sorry - been too busy to post the last few days).

Our low-end 1128 Marine from last week fell out of escrow already.

3/27/09 - Santa Monica and Pacific Palisades are up for the week; Mar Vista is flat. I'll do month-end and a first quarter recap next weekend.

Now 1,071 days since first listing, 1135 Berkeley fell out of escrow after a month. It's not just them, there seem to be a lot of such failed escrows; 1214 Pearl may be next, going from Pending to Looking for Backup.

North of Montana keeps dropping: the probate at 720 17th cut from $1,799K to $1,649K, below 320 9th's $1,699K - which is still available.

3/20/09 - Santa Monica was flat, Palisades down a little, and Mar Vista up from new listings.

Low-end Sunset Park featured the 2/1 at 1128 Marine St. dropped to $699K and the 2/1 at 2250 27th St. to $895K. The 3/2 at 1736 Oak St. (last listed at $990K) and the 4/3 at 2450 Euclid St. ($1,099K) both fell out of escrow.

And low-end north-of-Montana found the 3/2 at 320 9th St. dropped another $100K to $1,699K. Redo the kitchen and bathrooms and it would be a nice house to live in.

3/13/09 - Santa Monica is up. Palisades and Mar Vista are down, largely from withdrawn listings.

3/6/09 - The net of some new escrows, and some new but also more withdrawn listings is Santa Monica, Pacific Palisades, and Mar Vista are relatively flat for the week.

A third low-end north-of-Montana member joined the $1.8M club: 720 17th Street.

      LA County  Santa Monica Pacific Palisades  Mar Vista
<$3M New Tot DOM<$2M New Tot DOM Tot New DOM

-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
1/30/06 27,732
2/28/06 29,420
3/31/06 31,819
5/ 1/06 34,032 38 33
6/ 2/06 37,847 56 36 38
6/30/06 42,317 66 40 49
8/ 4/06 45,315 70 34 50
9/ 1/06 46,781 71 27 59
10/ 6/06 47,369 83 25 98 71
11/ 3/06 45,780 80 20 91 77
12/ 1/06 43,103 65 18 72 96 39 20
1/ 5/07 35,646 54 4 60 117 33 6 71 66
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
2/ 2/07 36,715 38 15 45 124 29 16 61 71 70
3/ 2/07 41,251 42 14 51 114 26 10 68 79 55 25 76
4/ 6/07 42,857 41 23 49 107 18 8 73 103 54 52 50
5/ 4/07 45,918 46 28 54 92 19 6 82 79 71 37 52
6/ 1/07 52,198 50 25 61 78 17 15 87 78 77 39 53
6/30/07 52,769 42 18 56 81 17 11 92 77 74 33 61
8/ 3/07 54,166 53 28 68 86 23 12 78 76 84 39 68
8/31/07 57,432 57 21 72 98 18 7 69 75 90 40 79
9/28/07 58,973 59 17 74 103 26 9 90 81 87 20 87
11/ 2/07 58,731 62 19 81 120 29 7 106 77 98 35 88
11/30/07 59,108 52 14 67 136 23 11 88 94 96 23 96
12/31/07 53,475 42 5 53 148 19 2 73 119 79 13 116
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
2/ 1/08 53,722 54 16 67 157 26 16 101 118 89 36 96
2/29/08 53,520 50 10 68 178 29 8 108 108 88 21 103
3/28/08 53,566 57 17 81 171 32 14 122 92 82 22 105
5/ 2/08 54,098 59 14 83 159 35 7 136 93 90 33 96
5/30/08 53,216 56 23 79 147 34 9 142 106 91 29 89
6/27/08 53,058 74 28 98 131 30 6 129 107 96 26 95
8/ 2/08 51,906 66 14 89 125 34 8 120 136 99 35 101
8/29/08 50,124 62 9 79 122 29 5 108 156 91 25 104
10/ 3/08 48,113 58 14 82 145 41 15 128 132 84 24 109
10/31/08 47,017 64 22 90 131 55 18 159 126 83 21 103
11/28/08 45,216 64 12 91 141 54 7 151 124 73 9 130
12/31/08 40,810 52 3 80 171 47 5 130 134 63 10 144
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
1/30/09 38,486 67 16 94 181 59 15 157 145 66 15 157
2/27/09 37,647 73 14 98 164 73 17 181 148 75 19 131
3/ 6/09 75 10 97 149 73 4 187 144 74 2 140
3/13/09 78 14 102 145 68 5 186 143 71 8 140
3/20/09 79 16 102 149 66 7 184 148 76 17 122
3/27/09 84 23 106 150 69 10 186 149 76 22 119
4/ 3/09 84 25 108 155 73 11 187 150 74 24 128
4/10/09
All Westside

            1/30     4/3    5/29    7/31    10/2   11/27
2/27 5/1 6/26 8/28 10/30 12/31

B.Air-H.Hls. 101 106 120
Bv.Ctr.-M.M. 58 65 78
Beverly Hls. 109 123 134
B.H. P.O. 127 147 162
Bvywd.Vic. 47 54 62
Brentwood 146 162 157
Chv.-R.Pk.'8' 31 38 33
Culver City 52 44 36
Malibu 254 267 288
Malibu Beach 63 70 70
Marina D.Rey 32 32 28
P.Palisades 157 181 187
Palms-M.Vista 66 75 74
Playa Del Rey 24 24 20
Playa Vista 6 6 5
Santa Monica 94 98 108
Sunset-Hwd.H.285 299 312
Topanga 70 73 71
Venice 104 121 119
W.Hwood.Vic. 61 58 50
West L.A. 20 30 32
Westchester 53 60 57
Wwood.-C.City 67 72 78
___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___
2009 Total 2027 2281
2205
2008 Total 1509 1694 1917 2019 2006 2128
1524 1846 1974 1942 2085 1822
2007 Total 1282 1274 1457 1522 1671 1600
1308 1377 1483 1551 1731 1329

Notes

See here for 2007 monthly totals. LA County inventory via OC Renter. Santa Monica Days on Market (DOM) is for <$3M, and omits Santa Monica Canyon (in City of Los Angeles but S.M. Post Office). Pacific Palisades DOM is for <$2M and count omits mobile homes. "New" is for previous month, or month-to-date for current partial month.