Saturday, January 31, 2009

Monthly inventory charts

The light green bars for January 2009, the first month of the new year, show inventory is significantly up everywhere except Palms-Mar Vista. (Is it any coincidence that is the only area where conforming loans apply?) This is the growing glut that, combined with reduced buyers' assets and higher jumbo loan rates, will tip prices down this year.





Days-on-Market charts

This is a new series of charts, to compare Days-on-Market (DOM) over months and years. January 2009 is a record for Januaries and nearly the highest for any month. This shows the growing glut of stale inventory, that in many cases is cutting prices to finally sell. (Note that I count DOM from the first listing of a property, across delistings and relistings.)

Added note: These increasing averages mask the reality that well-priced desirable houses still sell quickly, while the rest mostly sit unsold. It would be a mistake to conclude that all listings sell, just wait patiently because it takes longer now.


SM listings, sales, withdrawn/expired

New listings are about the same as past years; sales are down; and withdrawn and expired listings are up, resulting in rising inventories. (Surprise!)





Monthly inventory update

1/30/09 - Inventory for all three areas are up for both the week and the month. Santa Monica is up over the end of January 2008; Pacific Palisades <$2M is over double; but Palms-Mar Vista is lower.

1/23/09 - Big jump for the week in Santa Monica and Pacific Palisades inventories, from 12 net new listings each plus relistings of previously expired/withdrawn. In contrast, Mar Vista was about flat for the week and month so far.

Even bigger news is new price cuts, including our north of Montana indicators 320 9th Street from $1,999K to $1,895K, 209 25th Street from $2,050K to $1,899K, and more-fixed-up 620 22nd Street relisted from $2,395K to $2,249K.

1/16/09 - Inventory was pretty flat for the week, but the total doesn't reflect old listings expiring, former listings back on the market, a few new listings, and a couple into escrow.

1/9/09 - Old listings back on the market and a few new ones have already jumped our inventory numbers back above their 1/2/09 and 12/31/08 levels. The spring glut is beginning to form.

      LA County  Santa Monica Pacific Palisades  Mar Vista
<$3M New Tot DOM<$2M New Tot DOM Tot New DOM

-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
1/30/06 27,732
2/28/06 29,420
3/31/06 31,819
5/ 1/06 34,032 38 33
6/ 2/06 37,847 56 36 38
6/30/06 42,317 66 40 49
8/ 4/06 45,315 70 34 50
9/ 1/06 46,781 71 27 59
10/ 6/06 47,369 83 25 98 71
11/ 3/06 45,780 80 20 91 77
12/ 1/06 43,103 65 18 72 96 39 20
1/ 5/07 35,646 54 4 60 117 33 6 71 66
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
2/ 2/07 36,715 38 15 45 124 29 16 61 71 70
3/ 2/07 41,251 42 14 51 114 26 10 68 79 55 25 76
4/ 6/07 42,857 41 23 49 107 18 8 73 103 54 52 50
5/ 4/07 45,918 46 28 54 92 19 6 82 79 71 37 52
6/ 1/07 52,198 50 25 61 78 17 15 87 78 77 39 53
6/30/07 52,769 42 18 56 81 17 11 92 77 74 33 61
8/ 3/07 54,166 53 28 68 86 23 12 78 76 84 39 68
8/31/07 57,432 57 21 72 98 18 7 69 75 90 40 79
9/28/07 58,973 59 17 74 103 26 9 90 81 87 20 87
11/ 2/07 58,731 62 19 81 120 29 7 106 77 98 35 88
11/30/07 59,108 52 14 67 136 23 11 88 94 96 23 96
12/31/07 53,475 42 5 53 148 19 2 73 119 79 13 116
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
2/ 1/08 53,722 54 16 67 157 26 16 101 118 89 36 96
2/29/08 53,520 50 10 68 178 29 8 108 108 88 21 103
3/28/08 53,566 57 17 81 171 32 14 122 92 82 22 105
5/ 2/08 54,098 59 14 83 159 35 7 136 93 90 33 96
5/30/08 53,216 56 23 79 147 34 9 142 106 91 29 89
6/27/08 53,058 74 28 98 131 30 6 129 107 96 26 95
8/ 2/08 51,906 66 14 89 125 34 8 120 136 99 35 101
8/29/08 50,124 62 9 79 122 29 5 108 156 91 25 104
10/ 3/08 48,113 58 14 82 145 41 15 128 132 84 24 109
10/31/08 47,017 64 22 90 131 55 18 159 126 83 21 103
11/28/08 45,216 64 12 91 141 54 7 151 124 73 9 130
12/31/08 40,810 52 3 80 171 47 5 130 134 63 10 144
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
1/ 2/09 48 0 75 166 45 0 126 140 61 0 149
1/ 9/09 57 6 84 166 49 1 136 155 65 5 137
1/16/09 56 7 83 181 49 5 144 160 63 6 135
1/23/09 62 12 89 185 55 12 155 140 62 8 138
1/30/09 38,486 67 16 94 181 59 14 157 145 66 13 157
2/ 6/09
All Westside

            1/30    3/27    5/29    7/31    10/2   11/27
2/27 5/1 6/26 8/28 10/30 12/31

B.Air-H.Hls. 101
Bv.Ctr.-M.M. 58
Beverly Hls. 109
B.H. P.O. 127
Bvywd.Vic. 47
Brentwood 146
Chv.-R.Pk.'8' 31
Culver City 52
Malibu 254
Malibu Beach 63
Marina D.Rey 32
P.Palisades 157
Palms-M.Vista 66
Playa Del Rey 24
Playa Vista 6
Santa Monica 94
Sunset-Hwd.H.285
Topanga 70
Venice 104
W.Hwood.Vic. 61
West L.A. 20
Westchester 53
Wwood.-C.City 67
___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___
2009 Total 2027

2008 Total 1509 1694 1917 2019 2006 2128
1524 1846 1974 1942 2085 1822
2007 Total 1282 1274 1457 1522 1671 1600
1308 1377 1483 1551 1731 1329

Notes

See here for 2007 monthly totals. LA County inventory via OC Renter. Santa Monica Days on Market (DOM) is for <$3M, and omits Santa Monica Canyon (in City of Los Angeles but S.M. Post Office). Pacific Palisades DOM is for <$2M and count omits mobile homes. "New" is for previous month, or month-to-date for current partial month.

Wednesday, January 28, 2009

A projection

Let's plug the old crystal ball into the new Case-Shiller and try a few assumptions. I've added to it our North of Montana Index and two new lines, the Standard & Poor's 500 stock index and Santa Monica Household Income, both scaled to match the Case-Shiller at the beginning of 1980.

Ability to buy pricey Westside houses depends on (1) income to make mortgage payments, (2) loan rates and standards, and (3) assets to make down payments. Let's assume:

1. Upper-end incomes rose faster than the trend the last few years, but the financial crash will return those to trend.

2. Lax lending standards of the last few years are over, and rates for Jumbo loans are similar to the last period of very low rates, when the Fed rate fell to 1.25% in November 2002 and 1.0% in June 2003.

3. Assets for down payments are from previous house sales and/or financial assets. The stock market is now below its October 2002 bottom. Overall L.A. County house prices are back to the beginning of 2004 and still falling steeply.

Asset values and loan terms point back to late 2002 (black line). That also happens to be where the Income line crosses the North of Montana Index. Therefore it seems likely for middle Westside prices (below the very rich and above Conforming loans) to revert to those levels plus around 23% from the income trend (end of 2002 to end of 2009), if not overshoot.

For low-end north of Montana that would be about $1,100K* + $250K = $1,350K, around 33% below the peak of a little over $2,000K. The magenta X marks the spot. (* 402 10th Street sold for $1,100K on 11/25/02)

Another way to look at this is $1,350K represents a reversion to spring 2003 low-end prices (229 12th Street sold on 4/10/03 for $1,375K), somewhere in 2010.

What does this suggest for Los Angeles? The Los Angeles Household Income line crosses the LA Case-Shiller curve farther back, about the end of 1999. That is a decade along the flatter Los Angeles Household Income line, about 35%. The Case-Shiller index for January 2000 is 100. Adding 35% equals 135, the index value of mid-2002.

Case-Shiller for Los Angeles peaked at 274 in September 2006. From symmetry of the curve, reversion to 135 - a 50% drop - should also occur in 2010.

So there it is, in round numbers: a 50% drop for Los Angeles (reverting to 2002 prices) and 33% drop for the Westside (reverting to 2003), both falls finishing in 2010.

Tuesday, January 27, 2009

November S&P/Case-Shiller

Today's November 2008 S&P/Case-Shiller numbers continued down, now 35.8% from its peak in September 2006, back to January 2004 levels. Notice how symmetrical it has been (unlike the DataQuick median prices). It's still retracing another month with each new month passed.

By month that's 2.2% from October, 2.6% from September, 2.5% from August, 1.8% from July, 1.6% from June, 1.4% from May, 1.9% from April, 2.2% from March, 3.6% from February, 4.3% from January, 3.7% from December 2007, 3.6% from November, 3.6% from October, 2.1% from September and 1.3% from August. The national (orange line, their original 10-city Composite) index is down 26.6% from its peak in June 2006.

Besides the original city index they have each city broken into Low, Middle, and High tiers (Under $338,539, $338,539 - $511,777, and Over $511,777; updated for November). Los Angeles' Low Tier rose the most and has fallen back the most so far from its November 2006 peak, 47.0%.

The High Tier rose the least and plateaued for awhile before falling more steeply, now down a steeper 2.3% to 26.1% from its June 2006 peak. It hasn't retraced quite as far, only to March 2004.

Monday, January 26, 2009

First Fed

Calculated Risk broke the news this evening that First Federal Financial Corp. announced layoffs and an Order to Cease and Desist by the Office of Thrift Supervision.

A reader requested, "Please guys - I know the community will have things to say and the comments on Calc risk were absolute drivel." Comments here are open....

Sunday, January 25, 2009

Development perspective

Click on this photo and scroll down to get the awesome full perspective of a bubble-era real estate development project (admittedly not on the Westside of Los Angeles; via a viral email that came my way).

Saturday, January 24, 2009

Weekly inventory update

1/24/09 - Big jump for the week in Santa Monica and Pacific Palisades inventories, from 12 net new listings each plus relistings of previously expired/withdrawn. In contrast, Mar Vista was about flat for the week and month so far.

Even bigger news is new price cuts, including our north of Montana indicators 320 9th Street (photo) from $1,999K to $1,895K, 209 25th Street from $2,050K to $1,899K, and more-fixed-up 620 22nd Street relisted from $2,395K to $2,249K.

1/17/09 - Inventory was pretty flat for the week, but the total doesn't reflect old listings expiring, former listings back on the market, a few new listings, and a couple into escrow.

1/9/09 - Old listings back on the market and a few new ones have already jumped our inventory numbers back above their 1/2/09 and 12/31/08 levels. The spring glut is beginning to form.

      LA County  Santa Monica Pacific Palisades  Mar Vista
<$3M New Tot DOM<$2M New Tot DOM Tot New DOM

-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
1/30/06 27,732
2/28/06 29,420
3/31/06 31,819
5/ 1/06 34,032 38 33
6/ 2/06 37,847 56 36 38
6/30/06 42,317 66 40 49
8/ 4/06 45,315 70 34 50
9/ 1/06 46,781 71 27 59
10/ 6/06 47,369 83 25 98 71
11/ 3/06 45,780 80 20 91 77
12/ 1/06 43,103 65 18 72 96 39 20
1/ 5/07 35,646 54 4 60 117 33 6 71 66
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
2/ 2/07 36,715 38 15 45 124 29 16 61 71 70
3/ 2/07 41,251 42 14 51 114 26 10 68 79 55 25 76
4/ 6/07 42,857 41 23 49 107 18 8 73 103 54 52 50
5/ 4/07 45,918 46 28 54 92 19 6 82 79 71 37 52
6/ 1/07 52,198 50 25 61 78 17 15 87 78 77 39 53
6/30/07 52,769 42 18 56 81 17 11 92 77 74 33 61
8/ 3/07 54,166 53 28 68 86 23 12 78 76 84 39 68
8/31/07 57,432 57 21 72 98 18 7 69 75 90 40 79
9/28/07 58,973 59 17 74 103 26 9 90 81 87 20 87
11/ 2/07 58,731 62 19 81 120 29 7 106 77 98 35 88
11/30/07 59,108 52 14 67 136 23 11 88 94 96 23 96
12/31/07 53,475 42 5 53 148 19 2 73 119 79 13 116
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
2/ 1/08 53,722 54 16 67 157 26 16 101 118 89 36 96
2/29/08 53,520 50 10 68 178 29 8 108 108 88 21 103
3/28/08 53,566 57 17 81 171 32 14 122 92 82 22 105
5/ 2/08 54,098 59 14 83 159 35 7 136 93 90 33 96
5/30/08 53,216 56 23 79 147 34 9 142 106 91 29 89
6/27/08 53,058 74 28 98 131 30 6 129 107 96 26 95
8/ 2/08 51,906 66 14 89 125 34 8 120 136 99 35 101
8/29/08 50,124 62 9 79 122 29 5 108 156 91 25 104
10/ 3/08 48,113 58 14 82 145 41 15 128 132 84 24 109
10/31/08 47,017 64 22 90 131 55 18 159 126 83 21 103
11/28/08 45,216 64 12 91 141 54 7 151 124 73 9 130
12/31/08 40,810 52 3 80 171 47 5 130 134 63 10 144
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
1/ 2/09 48 0 75 166 45 0 126 140 61 0 149
1/ 9/09 57 6 84 166 49 1 136 155 65 5 137
1/16/09 56 7 83 181 49 5 144 160 63 6 135
1/23/09 62 12 89 185 55 12 155 140 62 8 138
1/20/09

Friday, January 23, 2009

DataQuick Westside zipcodes

One of the two main indices of house sale prices we track are DataQuick's median prices (monthly for LA, above). Although less accurate than the S&P/Case-Shiller because it's affected by the mix of houses sold, it does give a sense of trends.

The totals for 2008 (posted on the LA Times LA Land blog; older ones I've saved on paper) suggest a down trend even on the Westside. Not as steep as countywide, but definitely down. Here are the main Westside zip codes I've been reporting on (I'll post more that you request in the comments).

Median prices and y-y changes for entire years 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008

Los Angeles Countywide
$495K (20.1%), $541K (9.3%), $560K (3.7%), $400K ( -28.6%)

Santa Monica 90402
$2,214K (13.0%), $2,366K (9.4%), $2,725K (12.8%), $2,550K ( -9.9%)

Santa Monica 90405
$1,093K (26.6%), $1,113K (1.9%), $1,275K (14.5%), $1,100K ( -13.7%)

Pacific Palisades 90272
$1,750K (13.3%), $1,900K (8.4%), $1,985K (3.1%), $2,175K (4.3%)

Mar Vista 90066
$787K (16.1%), $830K (5.7%), $835K (0.6%), $760K ( -9.5%)




Tuesday, January 20, 2009

"winter of our hardship" bankrupt contractor

Hope you saw the inauguration today. On a sunny day filled with enthusiasm for "hope" I heard a heavy view of the near term in Obama's speech. Here's its last paragraph:

America. In the face of our common dangers, in this winter of our hardship, let us remember these timeless words. With hope and virtue, let us brave once more the icy currents, and endure what storms may come. Let it be said by our children's children that when we were tested we refused to let this journey end, that we did not turn back nor did we falter; and with eyes fixed on the horizon and God's grace upon us, we carried forth that great gift of freedom and delivered it safely to future generations.
This new listing (photo above), of the 2 bed / 3 bath failed flip at 2219 14th Street, second lot north of Pearl in Sunset Park, asking $725K, is another example of growing local distress:

"Prime Santa Monica Location. No occupancy permit at present. Soon to be bank-owned. Contractor declared bankruptcy mid-rehab. Residence is still on temporary electical pole. Plans and inspection correction notices available. Property is listed as-is only and is subject to bank approval. Newly painted throughout. Most fixtures are new. Needs flooring, except kitchen and dining area which have been newly tiled. Wonderful fireplace in living room. Santa Monica School District."

I don't have a last sale price, but the Assessor valued it at $589,659 on 9/9/04.

Monday, January 19, 2009

LA Times: "post-bubble global recession"

Peter Gosselin's front page article in today's LA Times, "Better off in 4 years? Unlikely" gives a good description of the economic context ahead for Westside real estate. Note especially the quotes from Stephen Roach, who has a track record of being a prescient bear. Here are some highlights:

"We're in a post-bubble global recession, and post-bubble recessions are lethal for growth," Stephen S. Roach, chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, said from Beijing. "It will be a long time before the world experiences anything more than anemic recovery." ...

What most worries analysts is not a cataclysm such as the Great Depression but the sort of economic morass into which Japan fell after its stock and real estate markets burst in the late 1980s and early '90s [chart above, 2007 post].

Daily life for most Japanese citizens wasn't terrible. There were few company shutdowns or mass layoffs. Indeed, the Japanese came to call their economic condition the "golden recession," said Simon Johnson, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

The problem was that the country simply didn't grow -- and that, economists worry, is what could happen in the U.S. and around the world. ...

Although U.S. consumers constitute only about 4.5% of the global population, they bought more than $10 trillion worth of goods and services last year. By contrast, said Roach of Morgan Stanley Asia, Chinese and Indian consumers, who together account for 40% of global population, bought only $3 trillion worth.

In the last decade, a new generation of financial engineering -- complex deals involving home equity loans, subprime mortgages and other devices that provided easier access to credit -- seemed to make it safe for Americans to save less and consume more. That further expanded their share of global economic activity and made them even more indispensable here and abroad. ...

Initially, the expansion was heralded as evidence of economic vitality. But by now, it has become apparent that the growth was largely a debt-driven bubble -- and a double bubble at that, in housing and in personal consumption.

As the elaborate superstructure of easy credit began to pop rivets, consumers found themselves caught dangerously short. They have reacted by drastically cutting back on purchases, particularly those that are discretionary.

Retail sales in the last three months of 2008 plunged 7.7% compared with a year earlier, the government said last week, making it the worst sales quarter in more than 40 years. ...

"Decades of borrowing have finally caught up with consumers; they realize there is no more easy money left," said Allen Sinai, chief economist of Decision Economics Inc. "This is going to scar this generation of consumers the way the Great Depression did our fathers' and grandfathers'." ...

China and other Asian economies "were driven by export bubbles, which, in turn, were a play on the U.S. consumption bubble," Roach said. With the bubbles on both sides now burst, the U.S. and Asia are dragging each other down, he said. ...

December DataQuick

Today's December DataQuick numbers declined yet again. Median prices are now down 41.8% for Los Angeles County from its peak in August 2007. Volumes were up 32% from December 2007 and 16% from November 2008, but are still below previous years. (November DataQuick post)

This puts Los Angeles County prices back to July 2003, Orange County to March 2003, Ventura County to November 2002, and San Diego still at March 2002.

Good overview summary by DataQuick

The core trends of Southern California's 2008 housing market were on prominent display in December: Low-cost inland foreclosures sold briskly, builders had their worst month in decades, expensive markets remained in wait-and-see mode and lenders continued to hold back on making 'jumbo' home loans
and comment by Calculated Risk
This makes a few key points ... Significant price declines are probably coming in the more expensive areas. (price follows volume).

And here's an interesting revisit of my August 2007 post, "Return to historic costs/income" that quoted:

O.C. real estate consultant John Burns is telling his clients: “For prices to return to their historical median ratio of housing costs/income, national prices would need to revert back to ...

2003 Q3: Los Angeles
2003 Q1: Orange County
2002 Q2: San Diego

I posted a graph based on DataQuick median prices of what that could look like. The update of that graph shows steeper drops, that have already gone below the targets in Los Angeles and San Diego!

Saturday, January 17, 2009

Weekly inventory update

1/9/09 - Inventory was pretty flat for the week, but the total doesn't reflect old listings expiring, former listings back on the market, a few new listings, and a couple into escrow.

1/9/09 - Old listings back on the market and a few new ones have already jumped our inventory numbers back above their 1/2/09 and 12/31/08 levels. The spring glut is beginning to form.

 LA County Santa Monica Pacific Palisades Mar Vista
<$3M New Tot DOM<$2M New Tot DOM Tot New DOM

-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
1/30/06 27,732
2/28/06 29,420
3/31/06 31,819
5/ 1/06 34,032 38 33
6/ 2/06 37,847 56 36 38
6/30/06 42,317 66 40 49
8/ 4/06 45,315 70 34 50
9/ 1/06 46,781 71 27 59
10/ 6/06 47,369 83 25 98 71
11/ 3/06 45,780 80 20 91 77
12/ 1/06 43,103 65 18 72 96 39 20
1/ 5/07 35,646 54 4 60 117 33 6 71 66
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
2/ 2/07 36,715 38 15 45 124 29 16 61 71 70
3/ 2/07 41,251 42 14 51 114 26 10 68 79 55 25 76
4/ 6/07 42,857 41 23 49 107 18 8 73 103 54 52 50
5/ 4/07 45,918 46 28 54 92 19 6 82 79 71 37 52
6/ 1/07 52,198 50 25 61 78 17 15 87 78 77 39 53
6/30/07 52,769 42 18 56 81 17 11 92 77 74 33 61
8/ 3/07 54,166 53 28 68 86 23 12 78 76 84 39 68
8/31/07 57,432 57 21 72 98 18 7 69 75 90 40 79
9/28/07 58,973 59 17 74 103 26 9 90 81 87 20 87
11/ 2/07 58,731 62 19 81 120 29 7 106 77 98 35 88
11/30/07 59,108 52 14 67 136 23 11 88 94 96 23 96
12/31/07 53,475 42 5 53 148 19 2 73 119 79 13 116
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
2/ 1/08 53,722 54 16 67 157 26 16 101 118 89 36 96
2/29/08 53,520 50 10 68 178 29 8 108 108 88 21 103
3/28/08 53,566 57 17 81 171 32 14 122 92 82 22 105
5/ 2/08 54,098 59 14 83 159 35 7 136 93 90 33 96
5/30/08 53,216 56 23 79 147 34 9 142 106 91 29 89
6/27/08 53,058 74 28 98 131 30 6 129 107 96 26 95
8/ 2/08 51,906 66 14 89 125 34 8 120 136 99 35 101
8/29/08 50,124 62 9 79 122 29 5 108 156 91 25 104
10/ 3/08 48,113 58 14 82 145 41 15 128 132 84 24 109
10/31/08 47,017 64 22 90 131 55 18 159 126 83 21 103
11/28/08 45,216 64 12 91 141 54 7 151 124 73 9 130
12/31/08 40,810 52 3 80 171 47 5 130 134 63 10 144
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
1/ 2/09 48 0 75 166 45 0 126 140 61 0 149
1/ 9/09 57 6 84 166 49 1 136 155 65 5 137
1/16/09 56 7 83 181 49 5 144 160 63 6 135
1/23/09

Wednesday, January 14, 2009

2008 Outcomes: North of Montana <$3M

Too much else to do, finally a chance to document the end of 2008. Let's start with our favorite, lower-end north of Montana. Here's everything I've tracked last year, in order of final listing price. Sales on regular lots (e.g. not 7th, 26th) at or below $2M are highlighted in red.

See also SM Distress Monitor's extensive 90402 postings and LateSummer2009's new Santa Monica Meltdown, The "90402".

Two low-end sales not on my list because they weren't on the MLS are:

733 20th, 3/2, sold 9/11/08 before the withdrawn listing below, $1,750K
370 22nd, 5/2, sold 10/7/08, $1,600K (-20%)

Sold

476 26th, 2 bed/2 bath, LP=$1,685K (-14% from OLP), OLD=11/7/07, SD=5/28/08, SP=$1,575K (-7% from LP)
420 7th, 2/2, $1,699K (-8%), 2/8/08, 9/29/08, $1,600K (-6%)
1140 San Vicente, lot, $1,895K (-14%), 1/30/08, 6/4/08, $1,675K (-12%)
704 15th, 2/1, $1,990K (-13%), 8/22/07, 2/25/08, $2,100K (+6%)
878 Woodacres, 3/3.5, $1,995K, 7/14/08, 8/28/08, $2,052K (+3%)
517 Euclid, 5/2, $2,139K (-3%), 4/19/08, 8/8/08, $2,079K (-3%)
460 Lincoln (photo), 3/3, $2,195K (-8%), 4/14/08, 11/21/08, $1,900K (-13%)
219 23rd, 3/2.5, $2,195K, 1/28/08, 4/9/08, $1,880K (-14%)
534 19th, 2/2, $2,250K, 9/3/08, 12/19/08, $2,000K (-11%)
710 19th, 3/2, $2,295K (-8%), 3/10/08, 7/19/08, $2,086K (-9%)
334 15th, 2/1, $2,295K, 1/11/08, 2/8/08, $2,400K (+5%)
249 18th, 3/1.75, $2,349K, 4/10/08, 5/28/08, $2,500K (+6%)
231 18th, 3/1.75, $2,349K, 1/11/08, 2/8/08, $2,325K (-1%)
402 19th, 2/2, $2,325K, 9/4/08, 12/4/08, $2,215K (-5%)
751 24th, 5/5, $2,350K, 9/10/08, 11/12/08, $2,254K (-4%)
416 21st Place, 3/1.75, $2,375K, 9/4/08, 10/31/08, $2,185K (-8%)
423 15th, 3/1.75, $2,379K, 7/9/08, 10/15/08, $2,365K (-1%)
447 11th, 3/2, $2,385K (-6%), 8/18/07, 4/15/08, $2,385K
626 19th, 4/3, $2,389K, 6/13/08, 8/15/08, $2,401K (+1%)
327 21st, 3/2, $2,395K, 6/12/08, 7/2/08, $2,300K (-4%)
416 17th, 3/2, $2,399K (-6%), 11/29/07, 2/26/08, $2,360K (-2%)
701 20th, 3/3.5, $2,595K, 3/24/08, 5/20/08, $2,500K (-4%)
316 18th, 3/1.75, $2,598K, 2/8/08, 3/28/08, $2,415K (-7%)
238 17th, 4/3.5, $2,635K (-2%), 3/11/08, 6/20/08, $2,550K (-3%)
241 24th, 3/2, $2,695K (-7%), 1/9/08, 4/15/08, $2,695K
214 Euclid, 3/2, $2,700K, 4/4/08, 5/22/08, $3,350K (+24%)
633 Euclid, 4/3, $2,750K, 4/22/08, 7/25/08, $2,675K (-3%)
1230 Georgina, 4/3, $2,895K, 9/18/08, 11/25/08, $2,810K (-3%)
303 22nd, 3/3, $2,895K, 6/23/08, 8/21/08, $3,000K (+4%)
621 19th, 3/2.5, $2,895K, 3/8/08, 6/9/08, $2,675K (-8%)
234 Alta, 3/3, $2,980K, 3/14/08, 8/7/08, $2,675K (-10%)
710 23rd, 4/3, $2,999K (-9%), 7/13/07, 4/29/08, $2,900K (-3%)

Expired or Withdrawn

426 4th, 3/3, $1,929K, 10/17/08, Withdrawn 11/18/08
733 20th, 3/2, $2,099K, 10/27/08, Withdrawn 12/3/08
702 11th, 3/2, $2,169K, 5/29/08, Withdrawn 7/24/08
517 14th, 3/2.75, $2,198K (-8%) 5/1/08, Withdrawn 11/21/08
1320 San Vicente, 3/3.5, $2,199K (-20%), 6/16/08, Expired
754 23rd, 4/3.5, $2,279K (-15%), 6/8/06, Expired
738 22nd, 3/2.5, $2,395K, 2/11/08, Expired
733 19th, 3/2.5, $2,449K (-9%), 5/15/08, Withdrawn 12/18/08
538 14th, 5/3.5, $2,550K, 10/16/08, Withdrawn 12/15/08
1020 San Vicente, 5/4.5, $2,665K (-11%), 7/9/07, Expired
634 12th, 3/2.5, $2,695K, 10/20/08, Withdrawn 12/18/08
603 21st, 3/3, $2,700K, 10/26/08, Withdrawn 11/3/08
212 24th, 3/3.5, $2,795K (-11%), 5/30/08, Withdrawn 12/5/08
1525 Georgina, 4/4, $2,799K (-12%), 8/6/08, Withdrawn 12/15/08

(LP=latest List Price; OLP=Original List Price; OLD=Original Listing Date, across re-listings; SD=Sale Date; SP=Sale Price)

Friday, January 9, 2009

Weekly inventory update

1/9/09 - Old listings back on the market and a few new ones have already jumped our inventory numbers back above their 1/2/09 and 12/31/08 levels. The spring glut is beginning to form.

 LA County Santa Monica Pacific Palisades Mar Vista
<$3M New Tot DOM<$2M New Tot DOM Tot New DOM

-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
1/30/06 27,732
2/28/06 29,420
3/31/06 31,819
5/ 1/06 34,032 38 33
6/ 2/06 37,847 56 36 38
6/30/06 42,317 66 40 49
8/ 4/06 45,315 70 34 50
9/ 1/06 46,781 71 27 59
10/ 6/06 47,369 83 25 98 71
11/ 3/06 45,780 80 20 91 77
12/ 1/06 43,103 65 18 72 96 39 20
1/ 5/07 35,646 54 4 60 117 33 6 71 66
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
2/ 2/07 36,715 38 15 45 124 29 16 61 71 70
3/ 2/07 41,251 42 14 51 114 26 10 68 79 55 25 76
4/ 6/07 42,857 41 23 49 107 18 8 73 103 54 52 50
5/ 4/07 45,918 46 28 54 92 19 6 82 79 71 37 52
6/ 1/07 52,198 50 25 61 78 17 15 87 78 77 39 53
6/30/07 52,769 42 18 56 81 17 11 92 77 74 33 61
8/ 3/07 54,166 53 28 68 86 23 12 78 76 84 39 68
8/31/07 57,432 57 21 72 98 18 7 69 75 90 40 79
9/28/07 58,973 59 17 74 103 26 9 90 81 87 20 87
11/ 2/07 58,731 62 19 81 120 29 7 106 77 98 35 88
11/30/07 59,108 52 14 67 136 23 11 88 94 96 23 96
12/31/07 53,475 42 5 53 148 19 2 73 119 79 13 116
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
2/ 1/08 53,722 54 16 67 157 26 16 101 118 89 36 96
2/29/08 53,520 50 10 68 178 29 8 108 108 88 21 103
3/28/08 53,566 57 17 81 171 32 14 122 92 82 22 105
5/ 2/08 54,098 59 14 83 159 35 7 136 93 90 33 96
5/30/08 53,216 56 23 79 147 34 9 142 106 91 29 89
6/27/08 53,058 74 28 98 131 30 6 129 107 96 26 95
8/ 2/08 51,906 66 14 89 125 34 8 120 136 99 35 101
8/29/08 50,124 62 9 79 122 29 5 108 156 91 25 104
10/ 3/08 48,113 58 14 82 145 41 15 128 132 84 24 109
10/31/08 47,017 64 22 90 131 55 18 159 126 83 21 103
11/28/08 45,216 64 12 91 141 54 7 151 124 73 9 130
12/31/08 40,810 52 3 80 171 47 5 130 134 63 10 144
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
1/ 2/09 48 0 75 166 45 0 126 140 61 0 149
1/ 9/09 57 6 84 166 49 1 136 155 65 5 137
1/16/09

Thursday, January 8, 2009

2009

Here's my view ahead to 2009 real estate on the Westside.

On the supply side, we've seen the growing glut of high-end listings. And this week new listings and previously expired or withdrawn listings have already started coming back to market after the year-end low point.

Some sellers have been holding firm on prices and just sit unsold. But others do reduce prices, needing to sell, and create new, lower comps. We've already seen low-end north of Montana sales tip below $2 million and mainstream low-end Sunset Park tip below $1 million.

The demand side, even for upper-end houses, is even weaker:

1. Income to people in Los Angeles' recently top-earning industries, especially finance and entertainment, is falling. For example, the LA Times lead article last Friday was "A Bleak Picture for Big Studios". Not to mention hedge funds and mortgage lenders' bonuses.

2. Huge losses in the stock market in 2008 and/or equity losses in previous houses sold to move up restrict cash available for purchases.

3. Jumbo interest rates have not fallen like conforming rates have, and qualifying standards are up, including higher down payments just as buyers have fewer assets.

4. High-end glut will end much of the demand for tear-downs, just as it did in 1990.

5. I don't expect federal stimulus to change this much, let alone counter the larger impacts of local and state budget cuts.

It took limited supply and all of these demand factors to inflate the bubble to its peak levels. It must deflate without them, as we've (finally) begun to see. I'll make an attempt at how much and how fast in a future post.

Monday, January 5, 2009

2008 inventory charts

Santa Monica inventory finished the year up 24% (year-end 2008 over year-end 2007) for less than $3M asking price (above), and up a huge 155% for over $3M (below). A glut of high-end inventory is a major theme going into 2009.


Similarly Pacific Palisades inventory is up 147% for less than $2M (above) and up 54% for over $2M (below).


The exception is Palms/Mar Vista, down 20% (above). But the overall Westside is also up 37% (below).

SM 2008 listings, sales, withdrawn/expired

Higher-priced Santa Monica listings are up over previous years, adding to the glut of high-end houses. I expect this to collapse builders' demand for tear-down houses, a replay of the early 1990s.


Santa Monica sales are well down compared with the last two years.


The large number of withdrawn and expired listings later in 2008 even exceeds sales. I expect a number of these to come back to market this spring, adding to the existing glut of higher-end listings.

Friday, January 2, 2009

2008 Wrap-up

1/2/09 - Total Westside inventory, although at a seasonal low, is up 37% over 12/31/07 (graphs will follow).

I didn't expect much of any change from Wednesday 12/31/08 to Friday 1/2/09, and was surprised by more expired listings today, tempered by two listings back on the market attempting to get the jump on 2009.

12/26 - Slight decline for Santa Monica, a little more for Palisades, and a slight increase for Mar Vista, not that I'd expect much of a change over Christmas.

We'll have a lot of year-end wrap-up in the next week or so: large trends over 2008, graphs, and detailed lists.

12/19 - Santa Monica and Mar Vista inventory are down, predominantly withdrawals as you'd expect at the end of the year, but Pacific Palisades is actually up for the week.

Added: Hope you saw SM Distress Monitor's new post about 1337 Maple in Sunset Park selling for $825K. That's a typical lot size, not backing up to apartments, on a quiet street, almost down to $800K.

12/12 - Santa Monica is down slightly <$3M but up overall; Pacific Palisades is down a little; and Mar Vista is down a little, despite a number of Withdrawn listings, but with couple back on the market. A failed escrow at 1213 Oak (2/1.5, $895K) and sale of 2232 21st (2/1, $$1,079K) for $980K further establishes the low end of Sunset Park below $1M.

12/5 - Pretty flat inventory for the week, except Pacific Palisades over $2M is down some. Continuing more Expired and Withdrawn than new sales, including our highlighted 733 20th (3/2 asking $2,099K) and 212 24th (3/3.5 asking $2,795K). The two new Santa Monica escrows were 2407 Ashland (3/2, asking $1,325K) and 1133 Georgina (5/4.5, $5,995K).

 LA County Santa Monica Pacific Palisades Mar Vista
<$3M New Tot DOM<$2M New Tot DOM Tot New DOM

-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
1/30/06 27,732
2/28/06 29,420
3/31/06 31,819
5/ 1/06 34,032 38 33
6/ 2/06 37,847 56 36 38
6/30/06 42,317 66 40 49
8/ 4/06 45,315 70 34 50
9/ 1/06 46,781 71 27 59
10/ 6/06 47,369 83 25 98 71
11/ 3/06 45,780 80 20 91 77
12/ 1/06 43,103 65 18 72 96 39 20
1/ 5/07 35,646 54 4 60 117 33 6 71 66
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
2/ 2/07 36,715 38 15 45 124 29 16 61 71 70
3/ 2/07 41,251 42 14 51 114 26 10 68 79 55 25 76
4/ 6/07 42,857 41 23 49 107 18 8 73 103 54 52 50
5/ 4/07 45,918 46 28 54 92 19 6 82 79 71 37 52
6/ 1/07 52,198 50 25 61 78 17 15 87 78 77 39 53
6/30/07 52,769 42 18 56 81 17 11 92 77 74 33 61
8/ 3/07 54,166 53 28 68 86 23 12 78 76 84 39 68
8/31/07 57,432 57 21 72 98 18 7 69 75 90 40 79
9/28/07 58,973 59 17 74 103 26 9 90 81 87 20 87
11/ 2/07 58,731 62 19 81 120 29 7 106 77 98 35 88
11/30/07 59,108 52 14 67 136 23 11 88 94 96 23 96
12/31/07 53,475 42 5 53 148 19 2 73 119 79 13 116
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
2/ 1/08 53,722 54 16 67 157 26 16 101 118 89 36 96
2/29/08 53,520 50 10 68 178 29 8 108 108 88 21 103
3/28/08 53,566 57 17 81 171 32 14 122 92 82 22 105
5/ 2/08 54,098 59 14 83 159 35 7 136 93 90 33 96
5/30/08 53,216 56 23 79 147 34 9 142 106 91 29 89
6/27/08 53,058 74 28 98 131 30 6 129 107 96 26 95
8/ 2/08 51,906 66 14 89 125 34 8 120 136 99 35 101
8/29/08 50,124 62 9 79 122 29 5 108 156 91 25 104
10/ 3/08 48,113 58 14 82 145 41 15 128 132 84 24 109
10/31/08 47,017 64 22 90 131 55 18 159 126 83 21 103
11/28/08 45,216 64 12 91 141 54 7 151 124 73 9 130
12/ 5/08 64 2 92 143 53 1 143 129 72 5 126
12/12/08 62 3 93 154 48 2 136 114 70 6 141
12/19/08 54 3 84 159 52 4 138 126 66 8 149
12/26/08 53 3 82 165 49 5 132 129 67 10 139
12/31/08 40,810 52 3 80 171 47 5 130 134 63 10 144
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
1/ 2/09 48 0 75 166 45 0 126 140 61 0 149
1/ 9/09
All Westside

             2/1    3/28    5/30     8/1    10/3   11/28
2/29 5/2 6/27 8/29 10/31 12/31

Bel Air-H.Hls.85 82 95 100 108 110 115 113 115 113 107 104
Bev.Ctr.-M.M. 71 67 75 79 80 78 80 72 62 67 66 60
Beverly Hills 65 64 66 78 84 79 90 90 94 98 113 94
B.H. P.O. 78 80 92 95 101 113 118 121 125 123 117 110
B'wood Vic. 50 56 53 57 67 58 53 59 55 55 57 38
Brentwood 77 86 96 104 108 116 115 109 124 140 142 127
Chev.-R.Pk.'8'21 19 20 24 25 31 34 33 38 40 41 31
Culver City 42 48 50 57 59 58 49 58 61 63 62 51
Malibu 185 200 213 242 261 266 265 258 240 244 260 231
Malibu Beach 38 49 57 60 50 49 59 61 59 52 59 49
Marina Del Rey26 36 25 25 26 27 32 33 33 35 42 23
Pac.Palisades101 108 122 136 142 129 120 108 128 159 151 130
Palms-M.Vista 89 88 82 90 92 96 99 91 84 83 73 63
Playa Del Rey 22 19 15 15 23 24 28 29 26 25 26 23
Playa Vista 5 4 6 5 5 9 9 7 7 8 8 3
Santa Monica 67 68 81 84 79 98 89 79 82 90 91 80
Sunset-Hwd.H.189 185 215 240 241 273 278 256 292 291 306 269
Topanga 49 44 63 69 66 62 60 61 62 69 88 69
Venice 72 72 74 83 85 77 89 79 83 96 100 81
W.H'wood Vic. 48 51 48 43 46 46 55 62 64 61 55 46
West L.A. 20 18 25 25 25 26 33 27 29 25 23 19
Westchester 72 54 79 86 91 88 82 76 78 77 70 51
W'wood-C.City 37 36 42 49 53 61 67 60 65 71 71 61
___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___
2008 Total 1509 1694 1917 2019 2006 2128
1524 1846 1974 1942 2085 1822
2007 Total 1282 1274 1457 1522 1671 1600
1308 1377 1483 1551 1731 1329

Notes

See here for 2007 monthly totals. LA County inventory via OC Renter. Santa Monica Days on Market (DOM) is for <$3M, and omits Santa Monica Canyon (in City of Los Angeles but S.M. Post Office). Pacific Palisades DOM is for <$2M and count omits mobile homes. "New" is for previous month, or month-to-date for current partial month.